Range Clearance Production Function Estimation for Explosive Ordnance Disposal Dr. Brice Stone, Mr. Jonathan Fast and Mr. Gary Grimes Metrica, Inc. November 1999

2 Overview Objective Methodological Approach –Objective Data –Survey Data Survey Results Model Development Interpretation of Modeling and Analysis

3 Research Objective Determine manpower requirements for EOD personnel to perform explosives decontamination and thermal treatment on Air Force Weapons and Training Ranges

4 Methodological Approach Survey based approach Objective data - Form 3578 Combined use of survey and objective data –Developing supplemental data for analysis –Verification/Validation of objective data

5 Modeling Range Cleaning Range cleaning as a production function Single equation model –Man hours –Density function Simultaneous system –Acres cleaned –Tonnage –Quantity of nomenclature

6 Key Data Elements Man hours Acres cleared Type of terrain and/or weather or seasons –Desert –Mountains –Marshy, swamps –Brush

7 Key Data Elements (Cont’d.) Type of clearance –50 use day –annual –5 year Year of occurrence and season Density of ordnance (tonnage)

8 Key Data Elements (Cont’d.) Types and quantity of ordnance removed –Small arms ammunition –Practice bombs –Bombs –Cluster bombs –Rockets –Missiles –Grenades

9 Survey Structure Paper and pencil Questions concerning range cleaning tasks and manpower used Bases surveyed Responses rates

10 Ranges/Bases Surveyed

11 Size of Ranges by Base

12 Types of Clearance by Base

13 Compensating for “Lost Time”

14 Means for EOD Personnel Used, Duration of Clearance and Acres Cleared by Base

15 Acres Per Man Hour for Annual Clearances by Base

16 Acres Per Man Hour for Five Year Clearances by Base

17 Acres Per Man Hour for 50 Day Use Clearances by Base

18 Model Results Simultaneous system –Man Hours statistically significant for all three outputs ( acres per man hour) Single equation (reduced form) –Man Hours statistically significant (9.4173) –Tonnage and Quantity of Ordnance statistically significant

19 Model Results (Cont’d.) Other factors –Type of clearance –Tonnage –Type and quantity of ordnance Consistent results for man hour production regardless of approach

20 Simultaneous Equation Results for Acres Cleared

21 Single Equation Results for Acres Cleared

22 Acres per Man Hour, Historical Data, AF Form 3578

23 Acres per Man Hour, AF Form 3578 Compared to Survey Data

24 Implication of Estimated Model Assume 10,000 acres - annual clean Implies –Crew of nearly 9 people 7 - low 11 - high –Working 40 hours per week –3 week job

25 Implication of Estimated Model (Cont’d.) 5 year clearance –Adds at approximately one more person –Caveat: Usually includes doubling of acres cleared

26 Interpretation of Modeling and Analysis Manpower requirements for range clearances vary significantly by type of clearance, acres cleared and type of explosive ordnance cleared Manpower requirements for range clearances vary by base Decreasing trend in manpower usage for range clearances