1. E B Dunne Consulting1 Some Possible Socio-economic Implications of Larger Inshore Shrimp Vessels Purpose: To indicate the possible type and scale of socio-economic impacts flowing from acquisition of larger vessels in the current wet-fish shrimp fleet.

2. E B Dunne Consulting2 Definition of Socio-economic: Has many definitions/uses. Often used incorrectly to imply unprofitable activities. Is currently a large-scale area of economic analysis and research. Scope: includes poverty, economic development, access to health care, economics and governance and a variety of social as opposed to commercial values. Focus: on people, society and related values instead of profit maximisation only.

3. E B Dunne Consulting3 Current Context What effect will larger shrimp vessels have on individuals and communities involved in harvesting and processing in terms of their numbers and levels of total and average incomes?

4. E B Dunne Consulting4 General Assumptions: All the necessary improvements in this sector as described in the overview paper will come to pass pari-passu. Industry will become more efficient, with higher quality and value of output. Fishing fleet will become smaller in numbers (will happen in any event). Fishing activity will be more uniform or stable over a longer season. Annual employment in plants will extend over a longer and less erratic operating season for a smaller total number of individuals. Numbers of plants operating will be reduced as less efficient facilities are abandoned.

5. E B Dunne Consulting5 Scenario 1: Fleet Remains a Wet-fish Operation (65 Ft. Barrier Remains) Harvesting: To become completely viable as a full-time shrimp fleet, existing vessels must reduce to about 144 (55-65 ft) with an average IQ of 482 mt and a gross stock of $580K. Numbers of harvesting positions reduce from about 1,530 (340 active licences @ 4.5 crew) to some 864 jobs (144 vessels @ 6 crew) Average harvesting incomes roughly double.

6. E B Dunne Consulting6 Scenario 1(a): Fleet Remains a Wet- fish Operation (65 Ft. Barrier Removed) Harvesting: 20 percent of fleet acquires 75-85 ft. vessels(30) An IQ of 650-700 mt would be required for those 30 vessels Total fleet must reduce by 14 vessels to accommodate Fleet configuration then becomes: One hundred 55-65 ft and thirty 75-85 ft vessels. Harvesting jobs reduce to 825 (100 @ 6 and 30 @ 7.5) Average income increases slightly

7. E B Dunne Consulting7 Scenario 1: Fleet Remains a Wet-fish Operation Processing: Number of plants reduces to 6-8 as those in less strategic or favourable locations cease operations. (Vardy’s threshold of 8,000 tonnes & 24 weeks per plant = eight plants at 2003 quota levels). Some 1,600–1,700 workers are employed over a longer and more stable operating season (24 weeks of 40 hrs.). This would be instead of about 2300 at peak now. Average plant incomes rise by a factor of 20 – 50 percent. (All available quotas will be produced in 30-50 percent fewer plants by 30 percent fewer individuals. Total hours remain the same).

8. E B Dunne Consulting8 Scenario 2: Fleet Becomes a Combined Processing at Sea/wet-fish Operation Harvesting: Same fleet configuration in terms of size emerges as in scenario 1(a) If all 30 larger vessels engage in full processing at sea, harvesting employment could increase by 210 positions Harvesting incomes for those 435 employed on processing vessels would rise by some percentage reflecting higher valued output Remaining 600 harvesting jobs would be unaffected

9. E B Dunne Consulting9 Scenario 2: Fleet Becomes a Combined Processing at Sea/wet-fish Operation Processing: Changes in scale of processing outlined in scenario 1 would still occur. If all 30 large vessels process at sea, raw material for 3 onshore plants would disappear (30 vessels @ 700 mt/ 8,000 mt). Onshore processing employment would decline by about 530 24 40hr/week jobs. Each 75-85 ft vessel that converts to processing reduces on-shore processing employment by 18 jobs. The net reduction in total sector employment would be 17 jobs for every vessel that converts to processing at sea.

10. E B Dunne Consulting10 Summary Highlights: Shrimp wet-fish harvesting and processing sectors will become smaller employers in any event. Existing fleet will decline to the equivalent of just over one-third its current size (130 compared to 340 active). About 25 percent of “new fleet” will be in 75-85 ft category, all of which might engage in processing at sea. Remaining fleet will move to 55-65 ft vessels and reduce by 14 from 114).

11. E B Dunne Consulting11 Summary Highlights ( Cont’d ): Harvesting employment could decline to 1,074 from 1,700. Average harvesting incomes would be higher by one-third to one-half. The processing sector could lose up to 540 jobs if all 30 vessels in 75-85 ft class become processing vessels.

12. E B Dunne Consulting12 Summary Highlights (Cont’d): Net sector employment loss from this scale of contraction and at-sea processing would be 1100 jobs. The remaining 2,200 individuals engaged in shrimp harvesting and processing would have significantly higher incomes.