GECAFS Regional research Regional GECAFS projects GEC and the Indo-Gangetic Plain food system GECAFS Scenario science developing “comprehensive” natural/social science scenarios GECAFS Vulnerability science developing an integrated framework for vulnerability assessment

Have a clear GEC dimension Include all 3 GECAFS Themes with a strong design for “internal” integration Be built on GECAFS scenario science Be designed to encompass GECAFS vulnerability science Clearly identify, and demonstrate end-user involvement in all stages Help develop policy at project scale Include capacity development Criteria for individual GECAFS projects

1.Initiate new research projects - little existing research addressing the interdisciplinary nature of this project; - the spatial and interdisciplinary scales of the required analyses will best be “tailor-made” to address particular interests of scientists, policy makers and donors. 2.Identify, build upon and add value to suitable ongoing research Implementation possibilities for individual projects

Indo-Gangetic Plain food system Caribbean food system Pacific coastal fisheries Southern Africa livestock-maize food system Vulnerability science Scenario development Initial GECAFS Projects

GECAFS Regional Research Builds GEC research agendas of interest to both science and development, and forges new, regional and international research partnerships to address them. Must relate to regional development needs, and clearly demonstrate how research can help address current and near-term issues, as well as those of a longer-term nature.  builds a strong GEC science agenda based on of relevance to regional need  interacts effectively with the regional policy making process and thereby encourages more support for the regional science communities  attracts donor support from outside the “traditional” GEC funding community

GECAFS Project on the Indo-Gangetic Plain Food System The IGP food system is both threatened by GEC and contributes to further GEC “forcing”. In the face of increased climate variability, policy requirements are to develop strategies that: Increase agricultural competitiveness while limiting further environmental degradation; Establish food provision systems which enhance the social security of the more vulnerable; and Promote rural employment opportunities thereby reducing intra-IGP labour migration and urbanisation. Regional study needs to recognise marked socioeconomic and biophysical differences across the region.

Global Environmental Change Food Provision Theme 1 Vulnerability and Impacts Theme 2 Adaptations Adapted Food Provision Theme 3 Environmental Feedbacks Socioeconomic Change Theme 3 Socioeconomic Feedbacks GECAFS Science Themes

IGP Western Region high productivity – food surplus region high investment in infrastructure major use of fertilisers and ground-water for irrigation in-migration of labour Example GECAFS Issues Theme 1: How will climate variability affect change in water supply and demand for agriculture? Theme 2: How can changes in water management (e.g. though policy instruments and/or agronomic aspects) reduce vulnerability of rice- wheat productivity to climate variability? Theme 3: What will be the consequences of changed water management on rural livelihoods, intra-regional trade, GHG emissions and water tables?

IGP Eastern Region low productivity – food deficit region poor infrastructure and low inputs of fertilizer and water high risk of flooding out-migration of labour Example GECAFS Issues Theme 1: How will climate variability affect vulnerability of resource- poor farmers to flooding? Theme 2: What are the market opportunities, social constraints and technical options for diversifying crops (e.g. aquaculture) to make more effective use of flood and groundwater? Theme 3: How would diversification effect rural incomes, labour migration, water quality and regional biodiversity?

IGP Vulnerability Issues Western region Dependence on irrigation from rivers and groundwater Soil degradation and yield stagnation Dependence on national and state “guaranteed price” Dependence on seasonal labour influx Eastern region CV-induced risk of drought and flood Poor early-warning systems Weak physical and institutional infrastructure to cope with climate extremes Few alternative markets for diversification

GECAFS Project on the Caribbean Food System Regional Policy Priorities Higher levels of food self sufficiency through increased productivity and diversification of agricultural production. Improved trade policies and competitiveness through greater export of high quality produce and processed products. Enhanced sustainability of the food and agricultural sector and poverty alleviation in rural communities, through greater opportunities for rural employment.

GECAFS Project on the Caribbean Food System Features of the Region Many small island states Diverse cultures, environments and food provision systems Great dependence on food imports Reliance on export crops, tourism & other non-food sectors (e.g. minerals) to provide revenue Susceptibility to weather extremes Susceptibility to changes in preferential export markets Weak regional-level institutional connectivity

GECAFS Project on the Caribbean Food System Story Line 1 - Local Level Target: Food systems in resource-poor communities based on fishing and locally- produced food crops. Aim: To reduce food system vulnerability at local level, especially in relation to changes in climate variability. Theme 1: How would changes in climate variability and water availability affect local community food systems on different islands? Theme 2: How would current national and regional policy instruments best be adjusted to enhance the effectiveness of technical options for diversifying cropping systems and fisheries so as to reduce vulnerability to GEC? Theme 3: How would these strategies alter the proportional reliance on local vs. imported commodities for local food provision and how would alternations in coastal zone ecology affect local livelihoods?

GECAFS Project on the Caribbean Food System Story Line 2 – Regional Level Target: Caribbean regional food provision Aim: To develop regional-level strategies to reduce the additional complications GEC would bring to regional food provision, given changing preferential export markets Theme 1: What additional factors would GEC bring to destabilise the region’s food system, and in particular what would be their impacts on revenue generation from different cash commodities? Theme 2: How could regional institutional changes and local technical options best be introduced to sustain regional food provision by maximising diversification options and inter-island trade? Theme 3: How would changes in intra-regional trade, and in policy and technical development at a regional level affect development in individual islands, and how could such changes be promoted to conserve the natural resource base of the region?