1. Global Environmental Change and Food Systems (GECAFS) Caribbean Food System Project: DSS Potential & Considerations Slides 1 –19 Ranjit Singh & Adrian Trotman Slides 19-25 Mike Brklacich

2. The Caribbean Region

3. Regional Characterisation  Many small island states (apart from Guyana and Belize)  Diverse cultures, environments and food provision systems  Great dependence on food imports  Reliance on export crops, tourism & other non- food sectors (e.g. minerals) to provide revenue  Susceptibility to weather extremes  Susceptibility to changes in preferential export markets  Weak regional-level institutional connectivity

4. Major Sources of Foreign Exchange:  Agricultural exports  Tourism  Exception: Trinidad and Tobago where the energy sector is dominant:  Oil  Gas (LNG)  Methanol  Ammonia

5. Caribbean Agricultural Exports Dominated by Traditional Commodities:  Major: (sold under preferential market)  Sugar  Bananas  Other: (sold under non-preferential market)  Rice  Coffee beans  Cocoa beans

6. Caribbean Food Imports Dominated By:  Cereal: wheat & corn Food & livestock feed Food & livestock feed  Oils: soyabean and corn  Meat Products

7. The Caribbean Region: A Net Importer of Food (US $ Billion) 19992000 CARICOMImports2.9562.061 Exports1.0921.223 CaribbeanImports3.350 Exports1.947

8. Priority Policy Goals for CARICOM  Food security  Enhancing productivity and international competitiveness in agriculture  Food safety  Rural employment  Sustainability of the food/agricultural sector and rural communities

9. Regional Response: Challenges  Diversification challenges:  Weak regional policy mechanisms  Difficulty of achieving economics of scale  Production characterized by small fragmented farms  Sloping and hilly terrain limit mechanization and labour-saving technology  Market access/penetration constraints  Shipping/handling costs  Quality issues  Lack of critical export volumes

10. Regional Response: Challenges (Continued)  Rapid conversion of best arable lands to housing/built development  Problem of losses from crop/livestock larceny  Declining water resource availability  Degradation of watersheds  Weak R&D and Innovation Support  Weak linkage of agrifood sector with tourism

11. Aspects of GEC of particular concern to the Caribbean region  Changing climate variability  Changes in mean climate (including global change)  Changes in the frequency, intensity and tracking of tropical cyclones and other extreme weather events  Sea level rise  GEC and social impacts on land and water resources and availability

12. Caribbean Food Systems Project A Phased Approach

13. Phases  Phase I: Identification of Policy Issues & Research Qs (2001-2003)  Phase II: Prototype Development & Demo (2003- 2005)  Phase III – Development & Application of GECAFS-Carib DSS (2005+)

14. Phase I Overarching GECAFS Questions  Theme 1:How will GEC (especially land degradation, variability in rainfall distribution, sea surface temperature, tropical storms and sea-level rise) affect vulnerability of food systems in the Caribbean?  Theme 2: What combinations of policy and technical diversification in food harvested and traded for local consumption, in export commodities and in tourism would best provide effective adaptation strategies?  Theme 3:What would be the consequences of these combinations on national and regional food provision, local livelihoods and natural resource degradation?

15. Story lines developed for two spatial levels: Local and Regional STORY LINE 1: LOCAL LEVEL  Target: Food systems in resource-poor communities based on fishing and locally- produced food crops.  Aim: To reduce food system vulnerability, especially in relation to changes in climate variability. STORY LINE 2: REGIONAL LEVEL  Target: Caribbean regional food provision.  Aim:To develop regional-level strategies to reduce the additional complications GEC would bring to regional food provision, given changing preferential export markets.

16. GECAFS Questions Local Level  Theme 1How would changes in climate variability and water availability affect food systems of communities on different islands?  Theme 2How would current national and regional policy instruments (e.g. access to markets, insurance schemes, EEZs) best be adjusted to enhance the effectiveness of technical options for diversifying cropping systems and fisheries so as to reduce vulnerability to GEC?  Theme 3To what extent would these strategies affect food provision by altering the proportional reliance on local vs. imported commodities, and how would changed land management and associated changes in runoff affect coastal fisheries and other aspects of coastal zone ecology and tourism income based on this?

17.  Theme 1What additional factors would GEC bring to destabilise the region’s food system, and in particular what would be their impact on revenue generation from different cash commodities?  Theme 2How could regional institutional changes best be introduced to sustain regional food provision by maximising diversification options and inter-island trade?  Theme 3How would changes in intra-regional trade, and in policy and technical development at a regional level affect development in individual islands, and how could such changes be promoted to conserve the natural resource base of the region? GECAFS Questions Regional Level

18. Phase II  A synthesis and assessment of stresses on Food Systems (IAI SGPII Proposal)  Food system characterization  Development & demo of prototype models/DSS  Next steps assessment  Consolidate links (regional scientists, policy makers, GEC community)  A research proposal for follow-up activities (Phase III).

19. Figure 1

20. Possible Elements of GECAFS-CARIB DSS ***  “AT ALL STEPS”: Scientist – policy advisers /makers – NGO – other stakeholder dialogue  Analytical tools  Data storage & mgt  Report preparation tools  Communication strategies  Human resources *** M Brk’s perspectives / reflections

21. Analytical Tools  Resource availability estimators (land, water, climate, energy, labor, …) -> Resource utilization/competition models, GIS applications  Crop/fish prodt’y functions Primary products (crop/fish/l’stock yield…) By-products (erosion, waste …)  Food provision system vulnerability index (hot spots…convergence of multiple stressors)  Transport models (trade, runoff, …) -> GIS  Trade-off assessment tools (progamming models (?) to assess prodt’n, availability & accessibility)

22. Data Requirements (flexible analytical units >> environ, political,???) (at 2003, 2015, 2030 & 20XX)  Resource (land, water, climate, energy, labor, …) suitability & availability for ag/fish  National & regional food demands  Trade within region  Regional imports/exports (ag, oil, tourism)  Production co-effs (yield, income, land degradation, ….)  Commodity prices

23. Reporting Tools >  Unit of analysis reconfiguration tools  Data summary (resource availability,..)  Input data & analytical output compression tools  Summary tables/displays  Mapping & other illustrators

24. Communication Strategies  Scientific output  Policy maker summary reports  Regular, routine releases & contacts  Media…multiple strategies

25. Human Resources  Continuity & commitment  Maintenance vs application