Trident after the election John Ainslie Coordinator Scottish CND Presentation for Scottish CND Post-Election Conference STUC 15 May 2010

Trident after the election Trident Replacement Trident and the deficit US Trident Replacement programme New political situation

MoD Timeline in 2006 Dec 2006Exchange of letters Blair/Bush Concept Phase (Sep 2009)Initial Gate Design and Long Lead Items 2014Main Gate Production 2024In Service Date

Defence Board 26 Nov 2009

“The Board also took stock of progress on the successor submarine programme, and the challenges that remained before it could be initially considered by the Investment Approvals Board next July.”

MoD Timeline in 2010 Dec 2006US/UK exchange of letters Concept Phase July 2010Initial Gate Design and Long Lead Items 2014Main Gate Production 2024In Service Date

MoD Timeline in 2010 Dec 2006US/UK exchange of letters Concept Phase July 2010Initial Gate Design and Long Lead Items 2014Main Gate Production 2024In Service Date

workload 2010 – start initial design 2012 – start detailed design Design workload peaks in 2013/14: Full Time Equivalent design workload for successor submarine (RAND)

workload reactor design fuel core development 2012 – long lead item production

workload Common Missile Compartment (Joint US/UK programme; work all in US)

workload Aldermaston modernisation Future warhead decision (due ) US W76-1 warhead modernisation

Main Gate decision Dec 2006US/UK exchange of letters Concept Phase July 2010Initial Gate Design and Long Lead Items 2014Main Gate Production 2024In Service Date

Trident and the deficit Annual spending on nuclear weapons has doubled from £1 billion in 2003 to £2 billion in 2010

Trident and the deficit Increasing workload in the design phase Annual costs could rise to £3 billion by 2014

Trident and the deficit £1 billion per year will be spent in modernising Aldermaston

Trident and the deficit The financial plan is to reduce the national debt by 2031 – within this timescale over £60 billion will be spent on the nuclear weapons programme.

Trident replacement in the US US Navy plan 12 new submarines In service 2027 – 2080 Build cost $80 billion

Trident replacement in the US “When that program really begins to ramp up, in the latter part of this decade, it will suck all the air out of the Navy’s shipbuilding program” Statement to Congress March Robert Gates Defence Secretary

Trident replacement in the US “the new ballistic submarine alone would begin to eat up the lion’s share of the Navy’s shipbuilding resources … we have to ask whether the nation can really afford.. $7 billion submarines” Speech to Navy League 3 May Robert Gates Defence Secretary

Trident replacement in the US Gene Taylor Chair, Seapower Committee, House of Representatives. “We have a looming need to replace the Ohio Class strategic missile submarine, but doing so may cripple the Navy shipbuilding budget.” Seapower Committee 20 January 2010

Trident replacement in the US Gene Taylor Chair, Seapower Committee, House of Representatives. $672 million SSBN(X) budget halved “.. until the Secretary of Defense reports to the committee the guidance which shaped the results of the analysis of alternatives... and the rationale associated with construction of a new class of submarines capable of carrying the current weapon vice development of a smaller missile to fit an existing submarine” Seapower Committee Budget Mark-up 13 May 2010

Trident replacement in the US Submarine unit cost doubled from $3.4 to $7 bn The US submarine programme is not ring-fenced The US Navy may review its options Fewer US submarines – UK unit cost will increase A delay in the US programme will affect the UK

New Political Situation – TV debates “I don't think we can either justify or afford the like-for-like replacement of the Cold War nuclear missile system, the Trident missile system, over the next 25 years. It will cost you, all of us, £100 billion. We can't afford it.” “You want to hold a review, and you want to exclude the one big issue which should be at the heart of that review.” Nick Clegg, TV debates15 & 22 April 2010

New Political Situation - Coalition The Government will be committed to the maintenance of Britain’s nuclear deterrent and have agreed that the renewal of Trident should be scrutinised to ensure value for money. Liberal Democrats will continue to make the case for alternatives Coalition Agreement 12 May 2010

New Political Situation - Coalition “The Labour and Conservative policy of like- for-like replacement of Trident is absurd “ ”Any review which fails to ask the big questions will be a waste of time. In particular, the Government must think again about replacing Trident.” Nick Harvey MP (now Armed Forces Minister)

New Political Situation - Ideas Include Trident in the Defence Review Delay the Initial Gate to allow a study of “value for money” and alternatives Publish the costs Lobby Lib Dems Continue to build a broad coalition