EFRTC General Assembly Brussels, 28 November 2008 Worldwide market for railway infrastructure UNIFE Study Key Findings & Outlook 2016

1. The world market for rail infrastructure : status quo, trends and forecasts 2. Overall industry trends and impact on the rail infrastructure market Agenda

Total rail supply market volume exceeds EUR 120 bn, infrastructure EUR 22 bn Key data Worldwide Rail Market Study ) Rail control Infrastructure Rolling stock Services TOTAL MARKET Average market volumes 05-07Growth p.a % % % ) Rail control Infrastructure Rolling stock Services % % % % % ACCESSIBLE MARKET 2) Average market volumes 05-07Growth p.a. 1) Figures are including market volume for project integration, Growth rates are 9-year average growth rates 2) ACCESSIBLE MARKET: Part of the market open to any external supplier 3) Infrastructure segment includes rail, sleepers, ballast, ballastless, catenary, traction power supply 3

Accessible market volume rail market [EUR m] – average ) Western Europe Eastern Europe CIS NAFTA Rest of America Asia/Pacific Africa/ Middle East Infra- structure Rolling stock Rail control Services   35 Western Europe 24 NAFTA 21 Asia/ Pacific 20 Other Services 20 Infra- structure 11 Rail Control REGIONS [%] SEGMENTS [%] 1) Excluding market volume for project integration 35% of the rail market volume originates from Western Europe 4 Rolling Stock 6,30710,7184,6417,65129,317 0,9861,6150,5871,7094,897 0,6392,5000,4212,0045,564 5,7025,2601,0988,73920,799 0,2380,7870,1871,5082,720 2,6528,3352,2174,97618,180 0,5702,0900,5020,3493,511 17,09431,3059,65326,93684,988

Facts and figures on the rail infrastructure market VHS, mainline, freight  1.5 million km of passenger and freight infrastructure installed worldwide, 75% of which located in NAFTA, Asia/Pacific and Western Europe  69% of world’s rail infrastructure is mainline  half a million km of electrified track currently installed worldwide -1/3 in Western Europe where half of all track km are already electrified - NAFTA represents only 1% of world electrified infrastructure Urban rail  70% of world’s 56,000 km of urban track are dedicated to light rail operation  Metro infrastructure gaining share in Asia/Pacific and Western Europe, light rail infrastructure mainly in CIS and Eastern Europe

Annual growth rates accessible market volume [% p.a.] Expected growth per product category ranges from 2% to 4% 6 InfrastructureRolling StockRail controlServices Above average growth foreseen for electrification in the mainline segment High growth ex- pected for (V)HS trains, intercity multiple units and light rail vehicles – slight decline in demand for coaches Significant growth foreseen for ETCS (within and outside of Europe) and CBTC systems Solid, global development and increasing accessibility expected, also due to increasing rolling stock base 2.5% – 3.0%2.0% – 2.5%3.0 – 3.5%3.5% – 4.0%

Regional growth focus - mainline Annual growth rates, accessible market, superstructure and electrification, VHS/ mainline, [%]  Rest of America and NAFTA to enter VHS market in next few years  Negative growth rate for Eastern Europe to be explained by Turkish important orders in 05-07

Regional growth focus – urban rail Annual growth rates, accessible market, superstructure and electrification, urban rail, [%]  in the LT, need for mass transport systems in growing metropolitan areas (Asia)

Short-term growth boosted by huge rolling stock and infrastructure projects Short-term ( ) and long-term annual growth rates of annual market volume for rolling stock and infrastructure (EUR bn)

Leasing & Financing facilitates operators' demand and generates additional demand through inter- nationalisation of leasing companies Shortage of engi- neering capacity may become the bottleneck for growth Urbanisation results in additional and lasting demand for public rail transport, esp. in emerging megacities and metropolitan areas ERTMS opens European markets and creates additional demand from implementation outside of Europe Ecological awareness & energy consumption favour rail as an environ- mentally friendly transport mode Deregulation and liberalisation higher competition for rail operation increases demand for new rolling stock Selection of relevant major trends Overall trends favor the industry's development 10 Indicates impact on the industry

Providing Competitive Railway Systems for Increased Rail Traffic