Understanding Hurricane Response for Improved Stakeholder/User Reaction David Caldwell, Director Office of Climate, Water, and Weather Services National Weather Service National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration 64th Interdepartmental Hurricane Conference March 2010

Social Science and the NWS Potential Benefits Goals: Better understand societal response to NWS forecasts and warnings Apply this understanding towards provision of clear, actionable information, geared towards user need –Interdisciplinary interactions will enhance this information, e.g,: Sociology Economics Communication Move the NWS from a good agency to a great agency 2

Integrating Social Science: Why Now? For the 2004 and 2005 hurricane seasons: -Hurricane forecasts were accurate and timely - And yet there was $175B and more than 5000 deaths in the Atlantic Basin - Many did not (or were not able to) heed warnings - Could our messages have been framed to ensure more timely and effective response?

4 Integrating Social Science Why Now? Where We Stand: There is little empirical information available on: - Watch/warning use in evacuation decision making - Economic value of current forecasts - How the public and partners receive and act upon NWS information

1) Household Evacuation Decision-making and the Benefits of Improved Hurricane Forecasting: Developing a Framework for Assessment (NCAR-SIP and NOAA - completed) -Examined perception of hurricane forecasts/warnings -Assessed potential value of improved information - Focused on evacuation decisions -Assessed viability of survey methods Integrating Social Science: Example Studies 5

2) Hurricane Forecast Improvement Project (HFIP) Socio-Economic Impacts Assessment (NCAR-SIP in collaboration with HFIP – underway) - Assess EM’s needs for and use of intensity information - Assessing how households use intensity forecasts - Appling broad social science findings to HFIP project with NCAR Societal Impacts Program Integrating Social Science: Example Studies 6

3)Collaborative Research: Examining the Hurricane Warning System: Content, Channels, Comprehension (NCAR-SIP, Jamie Rhome,NHC, Mark DeMaria, NESDIS, Gene Hafele, MIC, WFO Houston – underway) -Hurricane advisory/warning development process/content -Study channels of communication among: -Forecasters -Electronic media -EM community -Public -Reactions of coastal and at-risk populations Integrating Social Science: Example Studies 7

4)Warning Decisions in Extreme Weather Events: An Integrated Multi-Method Approach (NCAR-SIP, L. Mooney, WFO Denver/Boulder, Retired - underway) - Roles of uncertainty in warning process -Dissemination of uncertainty info -Impacts on decision-making -Factors impacting decision making during extreme events -Characterize public preferences for different attributes of forecast and warning information. Integrating Social Science: Example Studies 8

5) Investigation of Hurricane Katrina in New Orleans: National Weather Service Environmental Risk Communications across Cultures (NOAA NWS Office of Communications - underway) - Study focused on communicating risk to diverse, vulnerable populations -Investigating the role various cultural variables (race/ethnicity, culture, socioeconomic status, and geography) play when communicating risk. - Produce communication training on expressing risk across cultures Integrating Social Science: Example Studies 9

6) Assessing Current Storm Surge Information from the Public Perspective (NOAA NWS Office of Communications – funding requested) -Explore/assess public awareness and understanding of storm surge and associated information -Determine needed approaches to improve communication and support decision-making with respect to extra- tropical and tropical cyclone storm surge Integrating Social Science: Example Studies 10

We must find ways to integrate social science into our forecast and warning mission so we can: –Improve call-to-action statements to achieve intended response –Improve expression of uncertainty in our information –Better understand the economic value/estimation of forecast improvements –Better communicate risk –Better understand how social networks effectuate response (race/ethnicity, culture, socioeconomic status) –Improve web design that enables us to more effectively convey the message –Effectively use social media Integrating Social Science: Where do We Go From Here? 11

NOAA’s National Weather Service is engaging social science experts to: -Improve information and services -Reach out to diverse at-risk populations -Communicate more clearly - Improve societal response to save lives -Enhance critical partnerships with EMs, media, and the private sector" Integrating Social Science: Summary 12