Labour Force Trends 1

 Labour force  It’s labour supply  Remember supply schedule - it will change with the exogenous variables  LF = Employed + Unemployed = E + U  It’s those who can be useful/used  Not in labour force 2

 Statistics Canada => the Labour Force Survey (LFS)  Monthly  in a reference week  Employed: worked for pay or profit at least one hour in the reference week  “ normally working,” but didn’t work in reference week  Illness  Holidays  Strike  Unemployed:  Didn’t work in the reference week + available to work + searched for work in the 4 previous weeks  Didn’t work in the reference week + will start work in next 4 weeks  temporary layoff  about to start new job  Not in the LF: everyone else  Retirees  fulltime students  Homemakers  Slackers 3

 Labour force grows  1947: 4.9 million  1998: 15.6 million  2003: 17.0 million  2010: 18.7 million  2031: million million  faster in the 1960s-1970s (3%/year)  slower afterwards (1%/year in 1990s, 2%/year )  Slower yet in 2010s-2020s 4

5 new humans (fertility rate) dead humans (mortality rate) new immigrants domestic population civilian working age population emigration 14 yo and under Armed Forces Institutuionalized Living on reserves Living in the territories labour force participation rate entries LABOUR FORCE withdrawals

 Population Base Growth  1960: 18 million  1970: 21 million  1980: 25 million  1990: 28 million  2000: 31 million  2010: 34 million34 million  2012: 35 million35 million  Where from? 6

 Fertility rate  1960: 3.8  1970: 2.3  1980: 1.7, and stays about there1.7, and stays about there  It is below replacement rate 2.1  Why?  Busier  Costly  Birth rate  Older (baby boomers) 7

 Mortality rate  No significant changes in last 30 years  Death rate  Declining birth rate + constant death rate = …  Declining natural (population) growth rate 8

 More population growth:  Immigration  Emigration  Net immigration > 0 in Canada  Immigration rates  A bit above 1% (of Canada’s population) in 1950s  About 0.75% now  Close to 200,000/year 9

 Kinds of immigrants:  Country quotas up to 1968 (race)  Point system from 1968  Skill  Experience  Family  Classes  Independent  Family  Business  Refugees  Came from Europe, now come from Asia Came from Europe, now come from Asia  More family now, too  How would you expect them to do when they come 10

 Kinds of immigrants:  Country quotas up to 1968 (race)  Point system from 1968  Skill  Experience  Family  Classes  Independent  Family  Business  Refugees  Came from Europe, now come from Asia Came from Europe, now come from Asia  More family now, too  How would you expect them to do when they come 11

 Labour force participation:  Labour force participation rate  = (labour force / working age population) x 100%  Overall increase  1947: 55%  2012: 67%  Too general: Men vs women  Youth:  Cyclical participation 12

 What’s up with the women?  Social attitudes  War and 60s  Educational levels  More flexible-hour jobs  Service sector up  Employment opportunities  Urbanization  Legislation  Women’s wages up  Fertility down  Washers/dryers/microwaves  Living standards, helpless men, and two-earner family  Marriage break-ups up  Have to work  Have to insure 13

 What’s up with the women?  Social attitudes  War and 60s  Educational levels  More flexible-hour jobs  Service sector up  Employment opportunities  Urbanization  Legislation  Women’s wages up  Fertility down  Washers/dryers/microwaves  Living standards, helpless men, and two-earner family  Marriage break-ups up  Have to work  Have to insure 14