UFORE Overview and Process

What is UFORE? = Urban Forest Effects Science-based computer model that quantifies urban forest structure, functions, and values Collection of analysis tools Specialized analysis for urban ecosystems More at Overview & Process I

Overview & Process Ecosystem “Functional units of interacting abiotic, biotic, and cultural (anthropogenic) components” Includes all trees Public/private Native/exotic/”utopian” No systematic management of individuals, but we can manage the population Population contributes to common good at much lower cost/benefit ratio than street trees

Status of UFORE Fully operational as program Over 10 years in development In SAS code at FS Syracuse  Direction: David Nowak, Project Leader  Programmer: Dan Crane Being converted to desktop app (Windows) i-Tree 1.0: UFORE “shell” makes everything now much easier Overview & Process

UFORE calculates Structure, e.g. Leaf area and biomass Species and DBH distribution Function, e.g. VOC emissions Pollution removal Effect on building energy use Total carbon stored Value based on structure, function Overview & Process

1 metric ton (“tonne”) = US (short) ton

Sounds like STRATUM… Similarities Similar questions Structure, function, value Implications for management Similar goals Differences Different populations STRATUM: street trees UFORE: whole ecosystem Some differences in methods, often b/c of differing populations

Overview & Process What good is it? Aid planning and management Improve forest designs Project future impacts Assess impact of catastrophic events Justify programs

Source:

Overview & Process How does it work? Uses field data to calculate structure Uses structure data to calculate function Uses function data to calculate value Uses value data to draw conclusions and make recommendations The Devil lurks, as always, in the details

Does this help? (Not!)

3 questions I ask when evaluating models: Do I understand the numbers? Can I trust the numbers? Can I use the numbers? I want to drill down one level in an effort to answer these questions, “peek under the hood”

Overview & Process VI Let’s examine one relatively *simple* set of calculations: CARBON Start with allometric¹ equations estimating above-ground biomass from species and DBH ¹ = relation of the growth of a part of an organism to the growth of the whole Convert with species-specific factor: above-ground biomass  whole tree biomass

Regression of DBH as predictor of biomass

Overview & Process VI Adjustment 80% less biomass for open-grown urban trees than regression formulae compute Based on field measurements of 30 street trees (1994 Chicago study) Probably due to pruning How much of biomass is carbon? Stored C  biomass x 0.5 Chow and Rolfe 1989, et al

Is this too MUCH??!!

Overview & Process VI Use growth and mortality rates for annual Start with published and/or field data for each species and DBH class Adjust growth (C storage) for Site (e.g., park 1.78 times less growth than street) Growing season length Condition of tree Adjust mortality (C release) for % of condition class Rapid release (above ground, populated areas) Slow release (below ground, unpopulated areas) Growth - Mortality  net annual C storage

Overview & Process VI Value Multiply net annual stored C by $22.80/tC Based on the estimated marginal social costs of carbon dioxide emissions (Fankhauser, 1994). Stochastic model provides a distribution of outcomes from which means can be calculated. “Rough order-of-magnitude assessment” Nature 443 (October 5, 2006)

What’s the point?! We can begin to understand and therefore trust the numbers Because of that, we can use the numbers Advocacy Strategic planning Action UFORE, like STRATUM, is a powerful tool for promoting sustainable management of urban forest resource.

Are me?