1. UFORE
Overview and Process

2. Overview & Process I What is UFORE?
Science-based computer model that quantifies urban forest structure, functions, and values
Collection of analysis tools
Specialized analysis for urban ecosystems
More at

3. Overview & Process Ecosystem
“Functional units of interacting abiotic, biotic, and cultural (anthropogenic) components”
Includes all trees
Public/private
Native/exotic/”utopian”
No systematic management of individuals, but we can manage the population
Population contributes to common good at much lower cost/benefit ratio than street trees

4. Overview & Process Status of UFORE Fully operational as program
Over 10 years in development
In SAS code at FS Syracuse
Direction: David Nowak, Project Leader
Programmer: Dan Crane
Being converted to desktop app (Windows)
i-Tree 1.0: UFORE “shell” makes everything now much easier
Like white rot fungi, attacking the ends

5. Overview & Process UFORE calculates Structure, e.g. Function, e.g.
Leaf area and biomass
Species and DBH distribution
Function, e.g.
VOC emissions
Pollution removal
Effect on building energy use
Total carbon stored
Value based on structure, function

6. 1 metric ton (“tonne”) = 1.10231131 US (short) ton

7. Sounds like STRATUM… Similarities Differences Similar questions
Structure, function, value
Implications for management
Similar goals
Differences
Different populations
STRATUM: street trees
UFORE: whole ecosystem
Some differences in methods, often b/c of differing populations

9. Overview & Process What good is it? Aid planning and management
Improve forest designs
Project future impacts
Assess impact of catastrophic events
Justify programs

10. Source: http://www.houstonregionalforest.org/Report/

11. Overview & Process How does it work?
Uses field data to calculate structure
Uses structure data to calculate function
Uses function data to calculate value
Uses value data to draw conclusions and make recommendations
The Devil lurks, as always, in the details

12. Does this help? (Not!)

13. ?????????

14. 3 questions I ask when evaluating models:
Do I understand the numbers?
Can I trust the numbers?
Can I use the numbers?
I want to drill down one level in an effort to answer these questions, “peek under the hood”

15. Hydro coming online end of 2006
Water quantity and water quality
Specifically allows modeling of vegetation effects

16. Overview & Process VI
Let’s examine one relatively *simple* set of calculations: CARBON
Start with allometric¹ equations estimating above-ground biomass from species and DBH
¹ = relation of the growth of a part of an organism to the growth of the whole
Convert with species-specific factor:
above-ground biomass  whole tree biomass

17. Regression of DBH as predictor of biomass
Slope but not intercept, which varied among species

18. Overview & Process VI Adjustment How much of biomass is carbon?
80% less biomass for open-grown urban trees than computed
Based on field measurements of 30 urban trees (1994 Chicago study)
How much of biomass is carbon?
Stored C  biomass x 0.5
Chow and Rolfe 1989, et al

19. Is this too MUCH??!!

20. Overview & Process VI Use growth and mortality rates for annual
Start with published and/or field data for each species and DBH class
Adjust growth (C storage) for
Site (e.g., park 1.78 times less growth than street)
Growing season length
Condition of tree
Adjust mortality (C release) for
% of condition class
Rapid release (above ground, populated areas)
Slow release (below ground, unpopulated areas)
Growth - Mortality  net annual C storage

21. Overview & Process VI Value Multiply net annual stored C by $20.30/tC
Based on the estimated marginal social costs of carbon dioxide emissions (Fankhauser, 1994).
Stochastic model treats uncertainties in global warming research/debate as random variables.
Provides a distribution of outcomes from which means can be calculated.
This dollar amount was projection for 2000.
“Rough order-of-magnitude assessment”

23. What’s the point?!
We can begin to understand and therefore trust the numbers
Because of that, we can use the numbers
Advocacy
Strategic planning
Action
UFORE, like STRATUM, is a powerful tool for promoting sustainable management of urban forest resource.

24. U4
Are me?