Democratization: What causes it?

What is democratization? 3 basic components: –1. ending an authoritarian regime; –2- installing a democratic regime; –3- consolidating a democratic regime Different causes may be responsible for each of these developments. Different causes may be responsible for each of these developments. (Samuel Huntington) End of an authoritarian regime: capture of Saddam Hussein, Dec

VARIOUS THEORIES OF THE CAUSES OF DEMOCRATIZATION: A Partial List High overall level of economic wealth Relatively equal distribution of wealth A market economy Economic development and social modernization

More theories on the causes of democratization * A feudal aristocracy at some point in the history of the society * Absence of feudalism in the society * A strong bourgeoisie * High levels of literacy and education * Protestantism * Low levels of civil violence * Low levels of political polarization Does a Protestant ethic lead to democracy? Martin Luther preaching. (picture: tml)

Yet more theories on the causes of democratization * Political leaders committed to democracy * Experience as a British colony * Traditions of tolerance and compromise * Occupation by a pro- democratic foreign power *Communal homogeneity Experience as a British colony: “The British Colossus,” (1892) depicting British expansionist Cecil Rhodes straddling Britain’s African “possessions”. Picture: edu.pt/estabensino/ebssantana/comenius/simbols _of_colonialism.htm

3 “waves” of democratization : France, Britain, U.S., etc : France, Britain, U.S., etc : West Germany, Italy, Austria, Japan, Korea, Columbia, Venezuela, etc : West Germany, Italy, Austria, Japan, Korea, Columbia, Venezuela, etc (?): Portugal, Greece, Turkey (again), Brazil, former East Bloc countries (?): Portugal, Greece, Turkey (again), Brazil, former East Bloc countries

The “Third Wave:” What and Who was the 3 rd wave? about 30 countries with auth systems shifted to democratic political systems in the 1970s and 1980s about 30 countries with auth systems shifted to democratic political systems in the 1970s and 1980s they were: they were: * diverse – one-party systems, military regimes, personal dictatorships, racial oligarchy (S. Africa) *many were “second try” democracies – leaders had learned from previously unsuccessful experiences and tried again – Spain, Portugal, Greece, Poland * many emerged after 1989 with fall of the USSR

Explaining the Third Wave: key variables deepening legitimacy problems of authoritarian systems in a world where democratic norms becoming increasingly accepted deepening legitimacy problems of authoritarian systems in a world where democratic norms becoming increasingly accepted global economic growth  expanded middle class global economic growth  expanded middle class transformation of churches (especially the Catholic Church): from being a defender of the status quo to opponents of authoritarianism transformation of churches (especially the Catholic Church): from being a defender of the status quo to opponents of authoritarianism changes in the policies of external actors (i.e. new attitude of the EEC/EU, shift in U.S. policies) changes in the policies of external actors (i.e. new attitude of the EEC/EU, shift in U.S. policies) “snowball” effects “snowball” effects (Samuel Huntington) (Samuel Huntington)

More general explanations: Democratic Correlates Encouraging democracy? Council of Europe flags

1.Historical sequences: Contestation, then inclusion  MUTUAL SECURITY Problem: it is very difficult today to legitimately deny contestation Can’t wait for democracy: an Otpor baby in Serbia

2. Growing wealth that occurs in such a way as to promote the growth of an educated middle class Remember! ECONOMICS ALONE IS NOT ENOUGH TO DETERMINE WHETHER OR NOT A PLACE BECOMES DEMOCRATIC. Most wealthy countries ARE democratic. Most wealthy countries ARE democratic. Most democratic countries are wealthy -- India a dramatic exception. Most democratic countries are wealthy -- India a dramatic exception. Examples of countries with high incomes in the 1970s that were NOT democratic: Examples of countries with high incomes in the 1970s that were NOT democratic: –the USSR –Bulgaria –Poland –Hungary, Spain, and Portugal –S.Arabia, Libya, Kuwait had per capita incomes of over $4,000 in the mid 1970s, but they didn’t become democratic –Iraq, Iran, and Singapore -- in the 1980s had high income and low democracy. Why would higher incomes not necessarily bring democracy?

3. Pro-democratic external influences Example: the European Union

Words of Advice for would-be democratizers: mobilize large-scale NON-violent opposition (the evidence suggests that guerrilla movements and revolutions are NOT good ways to bring about democracy, although they may secure liberation) mobilize large-scale NON-violent opposition (the evidence suggests that guerrilla movements and revolutions are NOT good ways to bring about democracy, although they may secure liberation) seek support from the center, and if necessary, the conservative right seek support from the center, and if necessary, the conservative right restrain the left and keep them from dominating the agenda of the movement restrain the left and keep them from dominating the agenda of the movement woo sections of the military woo sections of the military seek sympathetic support from the media and other governments, especially the U.S. seek sympathetic support from the media and other governments, especially the U.S. Once in power, secure safeguards for the rights of the opposition Once in power, secure safeguards for the rights of the opposition (Myron Weiner, advice based on large-scale analysis)

SEVERAL FACTORS THAT CAN BUT DO NOT NECESSARILY IMPEDE DEMOCRATIZATION 1 – foreign intervention or support for an authoritarian regime Examples: Iran, Chile 2- a highly skewed income 3- significant ethnic diversity with a recent history of conflict; the presence of subcultures –Note: Democracy does exist in countries with highly diverse populations – i.e. Canada, the U.S. –Another note: Problems tend to be worse when there are two main groups, one majority and the other minority. Multi-cultural countries tend to have fewer problems.