RURAL HOUSEHOLDS AND DROUGHT IN THE SAHEL REGION OF WEST AFRICA: VULNERABILITY AND EFFECTIVE MITIGATION MEASURES. An AIACC Funded Project (AF 92) Principal Investigator Dr. A. A. Adepetu, CERHR, University of Jos, Nigeria Mali Country Coordinator Dr. Abou Berthe, Institut d’Economie Rurale, Mali Centre for Environmental Resources and Hazards Research, University of Jos, Nigeria Institut d”Economie Rural C/o Ministere du Developpement Rural, Mali

THE SAHEL A transition between the southern margin of the Sahara desert and the savanna regions to the south. A bio-climatic zone of mainly annual grasses with a few shrubs and trees, that receives a mean annual rainfall of between 150 and 600mm A steep gradient of decreasing rainfall from south to north, with an increase in inter-annual and spatial variability. A zone of cultural transition where the Islamic culture from the north mingles with the traditional cultures of the south. North-south stratification of social systems, northerly cultures tend towards pastoralism, southerly cultures largely practice sedentary agriculture.

Study Problem During the past century, several severe droughts have occurred Causing untold human suffering, weakened the ecological equilibrium, with disastrous effects on the livelihood of the people. The IPCC TAR notes a likely increase in continental drying and drought risk in some areas. How people perceive droughts as well as their resource capability will obviously affect their vulnerability and adaptive strategies. Quantitative assessment of the adaptive capacity and vulnerability of various livelihood groups to past and present drought disasters will form a basis for, and contribute to understanding future V & A to drought hazards in the Sahel.

Aim of Study To identify vulnerable livelihood groups and determine the factors that shape their vulnerability and adaptive capacities in the face of climate change. Focus of Study Selected Rural Communities in Nigeria and Mali. Places can only be ascribed a vulnerability ranking in the context of the people who occupy them

Why Sustainable Livelihood?  Adopting a sustainable livelihoods perspective on drought vulnerability results in a fundamental shift in focus away from the resource itself to people, the impact of drought on their livelihood strategies, and resource conditions.  Will ensure that projects tackling drought mitigation and adaptation become problem-led rather than ‘discipline-led’.  Will lead to a greater understanding of the multiple dimensions of drought vulnerability. Vulnerability is explicitly a social phenomenon related to a human value system.

Research Questions Who are the most vulnerable groups and what shapes their vulnerability in the face of climate variability and change? What shapes the exposure to and ability of certain groups to rebound from drought hazards? What are the similarities and differences between present day vulnerability and adaptation and future vulnerability and adaptation to drought impacts? How does institutional capacity influence the capacity of the affected individuals and households to cope with/adapt to droughts and reduce vulnerability? Will adaptive capacities change in the future? If so, how?

Collect relevant baseline data from selected drought prone communities in Nigeria and Mali to identify the conditions that make certain groups in the Sahel particularly vulnerable. Use the data to develop empirical models of present & future vulnerabilities and adaptation to droughts in the Sahel region of West Africa. Identify gender differences in opportunities for and obstacles to adaptation among different groups that are at risk in the Sahel. Provide a multi-disciplinary baseline database where change, adaptive strategies, and environmental processes can be monitored. Research Objectives

Research Methodology To achieve our objectives, we propose the use of a methodology that derives from a vulnerability/risk framework, after Downing (1992). It focuses on current vulnerability, risk of present and future climatic variations, and responses to reduce present vulnerability and improve resiliency to future risks. In line with the framework adopted by Jones (2001), interactions between stakeholders and researchers are an integral part of the methodology – PRAs, Discussions/workshops.

Project Framework Key Climatic Variables Risk Assessment Adaptation Strategies Selection of Study Sites Stakeholders Non Climatic Variables Vulnerability Model Sensitivity Analysis Scenarios Coping Threshold IPCC AIACC Capacity Building

Project Output Reports – Quarterly and Annual Peer-Reviewed Publications Collation of Relevant Literature Production of Digital Database Development of Interactive Vulnerability Map Training of Graduate Students on Climate Change Impacts Community Enlightenment through Workshops and Effective Dissemination of Research Results Input for Developing National Communications and Policy

Where we are Project Development Policy/Literature Review Reconnaissance Survey Stakeholder Identification Selection of Study communities GIS Development Capacity Building