Asia’s Quest for World Leadership Talk given by Rodolfo C. Severino, Head, ASEAN Studies Centre, Institute of Southeast Asian Studies, at the 7 th Asia Economic Forum, Phnom Penh, 31 July 2011

What is Asia that is Growing Fast? Asia here means East Asia: ASEAN+3+India Region’s economies growing fast, except that of Japan, which is only developed country in it They are expected to grow rapidly, even if slightly more slowly, in next decade

Fast-growing Economies Economy China Hong Kong India Indonesia Korea6.1* Malaysia Singapore Taiwan Thailand7.8* Vietnam

Yet, Few East Asians Head Major International Bodies Ban Ki Moon – product mainly of geographical rotation 26 others, including IMF, and except for one Australian and one NZ, are either European, African, Latin American, or from US Only 3 East Asians: Yukiya Amano of Japan (IAEA), Margaret Chan of HK (WHO), and Supachai Panitchpakdi of Thailand (UNCTAD) Starting 1 Jan 2012, another Japanese (Koji Sekimizu) will be heading IMO

High Growth not Automatically Equal to International Leadership Reasons: – Rise of Asia fairly recent phenomenon – Different international bodies have different ways of choosing leaders – Rivalries among East Asians – IMF as example (Christine Lagarde), despite breakdown of “gentleman’s agreement”; no East Asian in running

Speaking of IMF CountryQuotas (millions of SDRs) Percent of Total Quota VotesPercent of Total Vote Australia3, , Belgium4, , Brazil4, , Canada6, , China9, , France10, , Germany14, , India5, , Indonesia2, , Japan15, , South Korea3, , Netherlands5, , Russia5, , Saudi Arabia6, , Switzerland3, , UK10, , US42, , EU-2775, ,

Distribution of IMF Votes Belgium, Netherlands, Switzerland more votes than S. Korea, France more than China Votes depend on quotas, which depend on contributions Point is: Asians seldom decide or act together in international gatherings In practical terms, no such thing as Asia Region too diverse, too conflicted to exist

Rivalries not only in East Asia UN Security Council expansion No need for veto by any of the P-5 Italy vs. Germany Argentina vs. Brazil Pakistan vs. India Two Koreas, China vs. Japan

Regional Coalitions fragile Eurozone, EU collapse? Regional institutions, coalitions fragile But will take time for economic decline to be transformed into diminution of influence, leadership

Conclusions No wave of takeovers by East Asians of major international bodies Maybe, leadership by Japanese or Chinese or person from HK or some other talented – and lucky – East Asian individual But not Asia as a region; on strength of votes from other regions

Conclusions Heading international bodies alone not measure of global leadership, but could be indicator of continent’s stature, civilisation’s influence For now Asia can exercise leadership by: – Promoting rule of law – Undertaking internal reforms – Education for innovation GDP growth not enough