Systematic Observation Requirements for Space-based Products for Climate Supplemental details to the satellite-based component of the “Implementation Plan for the Global Observing System for Climate in Support of the UNFCCC” Stephan Bojinski, GCOS Secretariat WOAP-II, JRC Ispra, Italy

Outline l Road towards “Systematic Observation Requirements for Satellite-based Products for Climate” l Requirements: Examples l Outlook / Conclusion

GCOS Implementation Plan l Requirements in the ‘Second Adequacy Report’; n Essential Climate Variables (ECVs) n Integrated global analysis products l Existing global, regional and national plans; l Indicators for measuring its implementation; l Implementation priorities, agents and resource requirements; l 131 Actions; estimated USD 631M additional annually recurring cost; l Major satellite component.

Variables Largely Dependent Upon Satellites (2AR) l Atmospheric Surface – Precipitation, Surface Wind speed and direction over oceans, Upper Air – Earth radiation budget (including solar irradiance), Upper-air temperature (inc. MSU radiances), Water vapour, Cloud properties Composition – Carbon dioxide, Methane, Ozone, Other long-lived greenhouse gases, Aerosol properties. l Oceanic Surface – Sea-surface temperature, (Sea-surface salinity), Sea level, Sea state, Sea ice, Ocean colour Sub Surface – Altimetry for analysis/reanalysis l Terrestrial (Ground water), (Lake levels), Snow cover, Glaciers and ice caps, Albedo, Land cover, Fraction of absorbed photosynthetically active radiation (FAPAR), Leaf area index, (Biomass), Fire disturbance, (soil moisture)

Road towards the ‘Satellite Supplement’ to the GCOS IP l Space agencies were requested by UNFCCC to respond to requirements in the GCOS IP by November 2006 l Space agencies asked GCOS, through CEOS, to provide more details for these requirements l January 2006 workshop with 25 participants, using l Requirements in Ohring et al. (2005) l Requirements in WMO/CEOS database l Hand-over of version 1.0 to CEOS (3 March) l 2 months open review on the web l Continuing interaction with CEOS l Publication mid-September

Requirements in the ‘Satellite supplement’ to the GCOS IP (near-final v2.0) l 9 Cross-cutting needs (related to, e.g., GCOS climate monitoring principles, inter-calibration, unique datasets, independent scientific groups, data access) l 35 ECV-based “Products”, based on “Fundamental Climate Data Records - FCDRs” l Needs for reanalysis (e.g., atmosphere-ocean coupling) l Detailed specifications, often in conjunction with in-situ data for cal/val l Recommended immediate actions and opportunities

Nomenclature Fundamental Climate Data Record (FCDR) ”a long-term data record, involving a series of instruments, with potentially changing measurement approaches, but with overlaps and calibrations sufficient to allow the generation of homogeneous products providing a measure of the intended variable that is accurate and stable enough for climate monitoring. FCDRs include the ancillary data used to calibrate them.” Products (aka TCDRs) ”denotes geophysical variables derived from FCDRs, often generated by blending satellite observations and in-situ data, and using physical model frameworks.”

Remarks on FCDRs and Products l FCDR specifications kept generic (e.g., “appropriate radiances in VIS/NIR”) based on current expertise l Clear links to GCOS IP l Accuracy – stability – resolution requirements given as indicators; sampling issues not addressed l Continuing involvement of expert groups required to l Improve methodology for product generation and analysis l Update of specifications/requirements l Obtain reliable estimates of climate variability and trends: Independent scientific groups, independent FCDRs

Where do priority needs stop? l Some in the science community have ambitions that “all” research missions and/or datasets thereof be sustained (“operational”) l GCOS focus is on a priority sustained component that deals with practical monitoring on a global scale, and that should be feasible within a decade. l This Satellite Report recognises, but does not detail, research needs and supplemental datasets and products that aid interpretation/ validation l Key recommdation 6 in the Executive Summary reads: “Sustain active research satellite programmes that address challenging measurement needs and that allow capabilities to advance and be more cost effective.”

Example 1 Aerosol Product: Aerosol optical depth, and other aerosol properties l Benefits: Reduce uncertainty in climate forcing l Spatial and temporal resolution (total column AOD): 1 km horizontal, 1-day cycle, RMS accuracy 0.01, decadal stability l Appropriate FCDR at selected VIS/NIR/SWIR wavelengths, through: l Optimal configuration of LEO/GEO satellites l Continuity by AVHRR-3, VIIRS, MTG l Reprocessing of AVHRR since 1981; of full GOES dataset Supplemented by: l Research with active instruments l Cal/val needs: NDACC, WMO GAW, NASA AERONET l Immediate actions: Reprocessing of historical datasets l Other applications of product: Air quality, NWP, cloud chemistry

Example 2 Land Cover Change Product: High-resolution maps of land cover type, for the detection of land cover change l Benefits: Quantify areal changes land cover; provide link between global land cover maps and in-situ observations; support to national GHG inventory reporting to the UNFCCC l Spatial and temporal resolution: 10-30m horizontal, 5-year cycle, 20% maximum error of omission and commission (accuracy and stability) l Appropriate FCDR of high-resolution, multispectral VIS/NIR imagery, e.g., Landsat ETM type l Adequacy: scattered regional 30-m resolution maps exist, but no institution provides global maps on a regular basis l Immediate actions: Reprocessing of historical datasets; build on existing rudimentary institutional arrangements; research to develop feasible operational solutions l Other applications of product: Support change detection / sustainable development in e.g., agriculture, forestry

Outlook / Conclusions GCOS Satellite Supplement Report used in: l Updated UNFCCC Guidelines on Systematic Observation (to be adopted in November 2006) l Space Agencies’ (CEOS) Response to the GCOS IP; long-term planning / “Constellation” concept? l Evolution of the WMO Global Observing System and the WMO Space Programme Meeting 4-8 September (ET-SAT/SUP joint session) l US National Research Council Decadal Survey Report “Earth Science and Applications from Space” (communication with Rick Anthes)

Thank you for your attention.

GCOS Mission l To ensure that the data required to meet the needs of users for climate information are obtained and made available for: l Climate system monitoring, climate change detection and attribution; l Research, modelling and prediction of the climate system; l Assessing impacts, vulnerability & adaptation; l Application to sustainable economic development. l Global, long-term, high-quality, sustainable, reliable l 3 science panels (Atmosphere, Oceans, Terrestrial), Steering Committee, Secretariat l Sponsored by WMO, UNEP, UNESCO, ICSU l National GCOS coordinators and focal points, National support

GCOS Observational Strategy l Achieving an optimal balance of satellite and in-situ data l Ensuring data are stable enough to allow reliable detection of climate change – l 20 GCOS climate monitoring principles (10 basic + 10 especially for space-based observations) l Making full use of all available data to achieve a cost- effective global observing system for climate l Network concept: – Comprehensive networks of all relevant observations – Global Baseline networks – Reference networks – Research networks

Selected GCOS activities in the past 3 years l GCOS Adequacy Report (2003): identified gaps and deficiencies l GCOS Implementation Plan (2004): the roadmap for the global climate observing system in the next 5-10 years l Both reports developed in response to and endorsed by the UNFCCC l Broad participation and ownership by the climate community, including WCRP, WCP l GCOS seen as the climate component of the GEOSS l Regional workshops l Regional implementation (e.g.,G8 follow-up, in conjunction with donors and development agencies in Africa)

Essential Climate Variables (ECVs) l Atmospheric (16) Surface – Air temperature, Precipitation, Air pressure, Surface radiation budget, Wind speed and direction, Water vapour Upper Air – Earth radiation budget (including solar irradiance), Upper-air temperature (including MSU radiances), Wind speed and direction, Water vapour, Cloud properties Composition – Carbon dioxide, Methane, Ozone, Other long-lived greenhouse gases, Aerosol properties. l Oceanic (15) Surface – Sea-surface temperature, Sea-surface salinity, Sea level, Sea state, Sea ice, Current, Ocean colour (for biological activity), Carbon dioxide partial pressure Sub-surface:Temperature, Salinity, Current, Nutrients, Carbon, Ocean tracers, Phytoplankton l Terrestrial (13) River discharge, Water use, Ground water, Lake levels, Snow cover, Glaciers and ice caps, Permafrost and seasonally-frozen ground, Albedo, Land cover (including vegetation type), Fraction of absorbed photosynthetically active radiation (FAPAR), Leaf area index (LAI), [Biomass], Fire disturbance, [soil moisture]