Presentation to Marine Strategy Coordination Group (MSCG) J Icarus Allen (on behalf of the MEECE consortium) 22 th February 2012 Brussels Evaluated Hindcast Forecast………

Scientific Challenge Evaluated Hindcast Forecast……… MEECE is a FP7 Integrated Project which aims to push forward the state-of-the-art of our understanding of impacts of global climate change and direct anthropogenic drivers on marine ecosystems end to end.

GOALS The specific goals of MEECE are:  To improve the knowledge base on marine ecosystems and their response to climate and anthropogenic driving forces and  To develop innovative predictive management tools and strategies to resolve the dynamic interactions of the global change driver, changes in ocean circulation, climate, ocean acidification, pollution, over fishing and alien invasive species on the structure and functioning of marine ecosystems  To expand the knowledge based and provide scientific tools for the implementation of the European Marine Strategy Evaluated Hindcast Forecast………

The Policy Challenge To improve the knowledge base on marine ecosystems and how they are impacted by anthropogenic and natural driver. To provide input to governmental and non-governmental actors in the development of innovative tools and strategies for the rebuilding degraded marine ecosystems, protection and the sustainable use of the sea and its resources, in the perspective of the ecosystem approach. To improve the knowledge base for protection and management scenarios aimed at reconciling the interests of the many economic groups benefiting from the marine resource (including coastal). To support to EU Marine Strategy (long term ecological objectives), the EU Maritime Policy and the EU Common Fisheries Policy (ecosystem approach to the management of marine resources) Evaluated Hindcast Forecast………

The MEECE Approach Observations Experiments Indicators Knowledge Transfer Knowledge Transfer Management Strategy Evaluation Management Strategy Evaluation Simulations & Synthesis Simulations & Synthesis Scenario Definition Scenario Definition Meta Analysis Meta Analysis Model Systems Model Systems Parameter- isations The MEECE Approach

Experiments and Parameterisations Evaluated Hindcast Forecast……… Exposure Experiments Effects of Herbicides on phytoplankton Model response parameterised as penalty function on growth. Experiments to inform models Multiple Stressors T, CO2, on phytoplankton, zooplankton, fish larvae T and Pollutants on Phytoplankton, zooplankton, benthic invertebrates Impacts of Cu and T on Copepod egg production

Coupled End to End Models Evaluated Hindcast Forecast……… Generic Coupler Two Way Coupled Models ERSEM-ECOSIM ROMS-PICSES-APECOSM ROMS-NPZD-OSMOSE “a thin layer of code for communication and data exchange, enveloped by explicit programming interfaces through which a physical host and any number biogeochemical models can pass information” NORWECOM.E2E

A Regional Modelling Approach Modelling allows us Describe the state of the system and how it may evolve Represent the dynamics of the pressure - state relationship Assess the risk on a negative indicator event

Model Library

BiodiversityInvasive Species Commercial Fisheries FoodwebsEutrophi- cation Seabed integrity Contaminants Physio chemical Temperature X (x) Salinity X (x) Nutrient Nitrate Phosphate Silicate X XX(x) pH X (x) Biological Features Phytoplankton Small Large X(x) xX X Zooplankton Small Large X(x) xX X Fish X(X)xx (x) Chlorophyll X Net Primary Production (X) XX Community production (x) X Bottom fauna* X(x)Xx xX *ERSEM NW European Shelf Only Mapping Model Outputs (Characteristics) to Descriptors Evaluated Hindcast Forecast………

Fit for Purpose Evaluated Hindcast Forecast……… Range of Drivers Range of models Reference Hindcasts

Scenarios Evaluated Hindcast Forecast……… Reanalysis Hindcast Climate forcing Past Policy relevant FutureClimate Change Anthropogenic Sensitivity Eutrophication Fishing Pollution Eutrophication Fishing Pollution

Evaluated Hindcast Forecast……… Changes in State Biogeographic Approach Distribution of potential Habitats for Procentrum Minimum D1 Biodiversity D2 Alien Invasive Species

Evaluated Hindcast Forecast……… Pressure – State Relationships Impact of terrestrial N load changes reduction on Primary Production in the Baltic Sea D5 Eutrophication i Eutrophication changes -50% +50%

Evaluated Hindcast Forecast……… Probability of a Negative indicator event D5 Eutrophication How well can we resolve the observed frequency distribution? How well can we resolve the thresholds? How might the frequency distribution evolve in the future? What are the consequences for GES? 18% of events above the reference level Winter Nitrate

Knowledge about Probability High Low Knowledge about outcome High Low Known outcomes Ambiguity (known unknowns) AIS Foodwebs Pollutants Acidification D8 Pollutants D2 Invasive Species Ignorance (unknown unknowns) D5 Eutrophication D3 Commercial Fishing Uncertainty (known unknowns) D4 Foodwebs D1 Biodiversity (habitats) Risk Assessment

Relating Models to the Integrated Assessment Evaluated Hindcast Forecast……… Relating an IEA to Models Integrated Ecosystem Assessment –main outputs of models in Relation to importance of ecosystem components as viewed by contributing experts to the IEA

Implications for Resource Management Evaluated Hindcast Forecast………

Evaluated Hindcast Forecast……… MEECE Model Atlas Web-based Tool online autumn 2012 Descriptor Fact Sheets: June 2012 Pollutants: Eutrophication: Biodiversity: Invasive species: Commercial species:. Food webs: Hydrography (climate change):

Toward Operational Models Research MSE Fisheries Eutrophication Pollution? Mulitple driver Context GMES Operational Models (Core Service) Decision Support Tools Experi ments Data Operational New Models Research models Scenarios Climate & Anthropogenic Drivers Users Downstream Services MEECE

Evaluated Hindcast Forecast……… Lesson Learnt and Future Challenges MEECE was conceived before the MSFD implementation plan – hence retro fitting to descriptors. Models have a degree of maturity where a range of outputs are ‘fit for purpose’ Model development dominated by research push – need user pull Challenge to improve model skill (requires observations and monitoring) Challenge, to translate Tbytes of model output into useful information for users Challenge to demonstrate the usefulness of model outputs to users Challenge to bring MEECE models to the operational arena Challenge to develop the next generation of models (experiments, observations etc..)