Study Goal:  Perform a “bottom-up” assessment of the sustained peaking capacity of the Pacific Northwest Hydro System over the highest 18 hours in a 3 day cold snap or heat wave. Study Purposes:  Inform hydro utilities’ resource planning efforts  Assure consistent assumptions are used for individual sustained hydro peaking studies, such as assumed flows on common tributaries;  Provide a check of the GENESYS-based Regional Sustained Hydro Peaking Capability result; and  Help assure consistent reporting of hydro capacity to the Western Electricity Coordinating Council’s Loads and Resources Subcommittee (WECC LRS) and the Pacific Northwest Utilities Conference Committee (PNUCC). 1 Don Long Services st Ave SE - Ephrata WA 98823

Study Deliverables:  Contact each hydro utility’s representative to ascertain whether sustained hydro peaking analyses are available for its projects, or can easily be run for the projects for the defined water conditions, or will require the development of a model  Develop a detailed work plan, cost estimate and schedule for Phase II  Develop a preliminary plan for a repeatable process to allow for calculation of the regional sustained hydro peaking capacity analysis on a periodic basis Schedule: Phase 1 start date:July 14, 2008 Original Phase 1 due date:September 12, 2008 Revised Phase 1 due date:October 19, Don Long Services st Ave SE - Ephrata WA 98823

Contacts with utilities:  Many of the listed points of contact were unaware of the study  Several referred me to someone else as the correct point of contact  Status of 14 surveyed utilities willingness to participate: 7 will perform all of their own studies 1 will perform its own studies on 1 project and use the regional model for 4 small projects 4 will use regional model for all projects 2 have not agreed to participate at all Outstanding issues:  Release of discharge data for use by downstream projects  Release of study detailed results to consultant for verification 3 Don Long Services st Ave SE - Ephrata WA 98823

Utilities who will perform their own modeling:  Avista (will share studies to consultant for review, but will not allow release of discharge data for use in downstream projects’ studies)  Eugene (Carmen only)  Idaho Power  PacifiCorp (Verbal agreement to participate. Have not agreed to provide study results to consultant for review)  PGE (Has provided results of their own study, but may be insufficient detail for review)  PSE (verbal agreement to participate)  Tacoma  BPA 4 Don Long Services st Ave SE - Ephrata WA 98823

Utilities who will use regional model:  Chelan  Douglas  Eugene (all except Carmen)  Grant  Snohomish 5 Don Long Services st Ave SE - Ephrata WA 98823

Utilities who have not agreed to participate: (Consultant will make assumptions to model their projects based on known or assumed data)  Montana  Seattle 6 Don Long Services st Ave SE - Ephrata WA 98823

Utilities not contacted: (Projects will be modeled with simplifying assumptions)  City of Centralia  Fall River REA  Lewis County PUD  Pend Oreille PUD  City of Portland  Bonners Ferry  Energy NW  City of Idaho Falls  Twin Falls Hydro  Warm Springs Tribe 7 Don Long Services st Ave SE - Ephrata WA 98823

Number of projects to be modeled: (Note: FCRPS Projects not included in count)  Modeled by project owner: 76  Modeled by consultant using regional model: 13  Modeled by consultant with simplifying assumptions: 9  Projects owned by utilities who have not agreed to participate:  Model with regional model: 12  Model with simplifying assumptions: 5 _____  Total projects115 8 Don Long Services st Ave SE - Ephrata WA 98823

Phase II Workplan:  Obtain approval by BPA and the Council of Phase II approach  Develop a spreadsheet model for determining sustained peaking capability  Gather project data for projects for which the regional model will be used and studies from utilities who are doing their own modeling  Run model for selected projects  Verify studies from utilities who are doing their own modeling  Fill in Technical Exhibit D.1 for all projects  Present results to the Forum  Aggregate and check reasonableness of purchase assumptions for all utilities  Prepare a description of the final methodology to allow the analysis to be a repeatable process 9 Don Long Services st Ave SE - Ephrata WA 98823

Phase II Schedule and Cost Estimate: (Assumes Phase II begins January 1, 2009  Estimated completion date:October 11, 2009  Estimated cost:$152, Don Long Services st Ave SE - Ephrata WA 98823

Preliminary plan for a repeatable process to allow for calculation of the regional sustained hydro peaking capacity on a periodic basis.  Obtain agreement from all regional utilities that they will participate in determining the regional sustained hydro peaking capacity  Encourage all utilities to use the spreadsheet model developed by the Contractor  Provide training to utilities on use of the spreadsheet model  Perform regional analysis at least once every three years to reflect potential changes in load shapes, owned or contractual resources other than hydro and purchases 11 Don Long Services st Ave SE - Ephrata WA 98823