1 A Presentation to the NOAA Science Advisory Board Usha Varanasi, Ph.D. Science Director Philip Roni, Ph.D. Research Fishery Biologist Northwest Fisheries Science Center NOAA Fisheries Service August 2005 Salmon Recovery from Summit to Sea -- Lessons from Puget Sound A Presentation to the NOAA Science Advisory Board

2 Outline Purpose Issue Presentation of Briefing Desired Outcomes

3 Purpose Present an informational briefing on science and management for recovery of west coast salmon populations Discuss successes and opportunities for next steps in Puget Sound

4 Issue Difficulty translating ESA requirements into practical recovery goals for use by state, tribal and local entities Creating science and policy frameworks and products to support effective stakeholder decision-making Adopting sound recovery strategies through stakeholder-driven processes

5 Presentation 1.Brief history of salmon recovery on the West Coast 2.Science-policy interactions in designing recovery strategies 3.Major advances in the science of salmon recovery 4.Emerging issues

6 Presentation 1.Brief history of salmon recovery in the region 2.Science-policy interactions in designing recovery strategies 3.Major advances in the science of salmon recovery 4.Emerging issues

7 (From Gustafson and Waples, in prep) Status of Pacific Salmon Considerable extinction of ESUs has occurred throughout range ESUs are the ESA- listing unit. They are: –Groups of populations –Distinct genetically and ecologically

8 58 identified ESUs, 26 listed under Endangered Species Act 6 geographically oriented recovery teams convened to identify delisting criteria Status of Salmon Recovery

9 Technical Recovery Teams Broad Scientific Tasks: What are population boundaries? What are recovery goals (viability targets for populations and ESUs)? What actions are consistent with achieving goals?

10 Presentation 1.Brief history of salmon recovery in the region 2.Science-policy interactions in designing recovery strategies 3.Major advances in the science of salmon recovery 4.Emerging issues

11 Puget Sound Technical Recovery Team

12 Puget Sound Technical Recovery Team

13 Puget Sound ESU Independent populations of Puget Sound Chinook with geographic regions

14 Status – Puget Sound Watershed plans completed by local recovery planning groups and submitted to NOAA Fisheries. Watershed groups worked through regional coordinating group (Shared Strategy) NOAA Fisheries will turn the plans into the recovery plan for the Puget Sound ESU. Coordinating group is designing governance structure for plan implementation.

15 Science-policy interface between TRT and Shared Strategy Science productPolicy product (Shared Strategy) Identify population boundariesWatershed planning groups know specific populations on which to focus efforts Population and ESU viability criteria Population and ESU recovery goals Guidance document for developing watershed recovery plans; technical liaison consulting Draft watershed recovery plans Population and landscape modeling of restoration alternatives Estimates of results for salmon from recovery plans Technical reviews of certainty of plan outcomes Final watershed and regional recovery plans

16 Developing conservation strategies and scenarios within watersheds Technical Committee Shared Strategy Policy Development Committee Forum Conservation strategy(s) Develop conservation scenarios Evaluate conservation scenarios using biological criteria Socioeconomic analysis Goals Selection of conservation scenario for inclusion in plan

17 Presentation 1.Brief history of salmon recovery in the region 2.Science-policy interactions in designing recovery strategies 3.Major advances in the science of salmon recovery 4.Emerging issues

18 Major advances in the science of salmon recovery SUMMARY: Defining common attributes of Viable Salmonid Populations (VSP) and ESUs Including a large-scale, ecosystem perspective to identify recovery needs Estimating the integrative effects of hatchery, harvest, hydropower and habitat management on salmon Scenario planning for restoration strategies under uncertain future conditions

19 Viable Salmonid Populations Population and ESU viability include 4 components: 1) abundance 2) productivity 3) diversity 4) spatial structure (McElhany et al. 2000)

20 Harvest Habitat Hatchery Hydro

21 Conceptual foundation for designing & evaluating salmon recovery strategies Life-cycle model is at the core Changes to the “H’s” alter habitats, ecological interactions, and population dynamics Life-cycle model Hatchery effects Habitat effects Harvest effects Land use Landscape processes Hydropower effects

22 Monitoring Management actions as experiments to assess effectiveness Need to evaluate restoration approaches Provide technical guidance and assistance to “recovery practitioners”

23 S C S: Supplementation R: Reintroduction C: Control S S S R R S S C C C C Hood Canal Chum Supplementation Program

24 Watershed processes & human impacts: understanding causes of habitat threats Focus on landscape processes and land use impacts affecting streams Landscape processes Land use Habitat conditions Biological response

25 Restoration Effectiveness Assessments Prioritization Monitoring & Evaluation

26 Key Restoration Questions Reach Scale What is effect of project x on local conditions? What is effect of projects like x on local conditions? Watershed Scale What is effect of project x on conditions in watershed or basin? What is effect of a suite of projects on conditions in a watershed or basin?

27 Physical habitat (LWD, boulder structures, ELJs) Reconnection/creation of floodplain habitats Dam removal Levee removal Habitat restoration actions

28 Watershed Scale Restoration - Elwha River

29 Watershed Scale Evaluation

30 Presentation 1.Brief history of salmon recovery in the region 2.Science-policy interactions in designing recovery strategies 3.Major advances in the science of salmon recovery 4.Emerging issues

31 Chemical Habitat Quality Coho Pre-spawn Mortality Longfellow Creek, Fall 2002 Dead females (spawned out) n = Daily rainfall in the Longfellow watershed (inches) Flow in Longfellow Creek (cfs) Dead and symptomatic females (pre-spawn) n = * * * = no sampling (high flows) 10/1/02 11/1/02 12/1/02

32 Role of Climate and Ecosystems Impacts of climatic and oceanographic variation on salmonid survival and population status Determine impacts to food web structure due to introduced species and human activities

33 Climate Model Hydrology Model Air Temp., Meteorology Salmon Pop. Model (SHIRAZ) Stream flow, Temp. Salmon Population Forecast Land Cover & Land Form Maps Predicted Atmospheric CO 2 How Robust are Recovery Actions to Alternative Future Scenarios (land use and climate)?

34 Emerging Issues: Developing an Ecosystem-based Recovery Strategy for Puget Sound

35 Desired Outcomes SAB endorsement of the approach to recovery planning used in Puget Sound SAB support for developing an ecosystem approach to management in Puget Sound SAB ideas on opportunities for ecosystem-based science in Puget Sound