Population Epidemiologic Transition- within the demographic stages Chapter 2

The Classic Demographic Transition Stage 1Stage 2Stage 3Stage 4 Time Natural increase Birth rate Death rate Note: Natural increase is produced from the excess of births over deaths.

In 1798 he published An Essay on the Principle of Population Malthus was the first to sound the alarm that the world’s population was expanding more rapidly than food production. He was the first to recognize exponential or geometric population growth. Today those who share his concerns are Neo- Malthusians Rev. Thomas Malthus

OVERPOPULATION MYTH U5bfHrMhttp:// U5bfHrM

Neo-Malthusians (supporters)

Critics of Malthus

Food & Population, Malthus vs. Actual Trends Fig. 2-20: Malthus predicted population would grow faster than food production, but food production actually expanded faster than population in the 2nd half of the 20th century. Malthus Theory and Reality

World Health Threats This transition occurs as a country undergoes the process of modernization or economic development. Less economically developed countries have higher rates of infectious diseases as standards of medical care are lower than that found in more economically developed countries. In more economically developed countries, more people die from degenerative diseases as infectious diseases such as cholera and typhoid are easily treated, causing more people to die from cancers as they live longer.choleratyphoid

Epidemiologic Transition- stage 1 The first transition was from hunting-gathering to primary food production. 2ghttp:// 2g

Epidemiologic Transition –stage 2 The second epidemiological transition CsP5Q Cholerahttp:// CsP5Q ERVng Tubeculosishttp:// ERVng

Epidemiologic Transition- stage 3

Epidemiologic Transition- stage 4

Epidemiologic Transition-stage 5 POSSIBLE ?? Decline of NIR

Cholera in London, 1854 Fig. 2-23: By mapping the distribution of cholera cases and water pumps in Soho, London, Dr. John Snow identified the source of the water-borne epidemic.

Tuberculosis Death Rates Fig. 2-24: The tuberculosis death rate is good indicator of a country’s ability to invest in health care. TB is still one of the world’s largest infectious disease killers.

HIV/AIDS Prevalence Rates, 2005 Fig. 2-26: The highest HIV infection rates are in sub-Saharan Africa. India and China have large numbers of cases, but lower infection rates at present.

Low Growth in Denmark 1970s, with little population growth since then. Its population pyramid shows increasing numbers of elderly and few children. Since the 1970s, with little population growth since then. Its population pyramid shows increasing numbers of elderly and few children.

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