1. Malthus and Population

2. Thomas Malthus Lived in England 1766 – 1834

3. Malthus and population

4. Why did he say that? When Malthus lived, England was here in the demographic transition model. Why does that matter?

8. Why Might Overpopulation be a Concern? Declining birth rates – Reasons for declining birth rates Reliance on economic development Distribution of contraceptives – Reducing birth rates with contraception

9. Family Planning Figure 2-30

10. Why Might Overpopulation be a Concern? World health threats – The epidemiologic transition Stage 1: Pestilence and famine – The Black Plague – Pandemics

11. Why Might Overpopulation be a Concern? World health threats – The epidemiologic transition Stage 2: Receding pandemics – Cholera and Dr. John Snow Figure 2-31

12. Why Might Overpopulation be a Concern? World health threats – The epidemiologic transition Stage 3: Degenerative diseases – Most significant: Heart disease and cancer Stage 4: Delayed degenerative diseases – Medical advances prolong life

13. Why Might Overpopulation be a Concern? World health threats – The epidemiologic transition A possible stage 5: Reemergence of infectious diseases? – Three reasons why it might be happening: » Evolution » Poverty » Improved travel

14. 90% of deaths caused by 6 diseases. HIV/AIDS Malaria Pneumonia Measles Tuberculosis Diarrhea

15. The Most Lethal Infectious Disease: AIDS Figure 2-33

16. Map of malaria outberaks

17. Pneumonia mortality rates

18. Measles Vaccinations

19. Tuberculosis Cases

20. Diarrhea Deaths

21. Paul Ehrlich – The Population Bomb (1968)

22. Quotations We've already had too much economic growth in the US. Economic growth in rich countries like ours is the disease, not the cure. - Paul Ehrlich, author of Population Bomb and Population Explosion.

23. Quotations The battle to feed all of humanity is over. In the 1970's and 1980's hundreds of millions of people will starve to death in spite of any crash programs embarked upon now. - Paul Ehrlich - the first sentence of his 1968 ``The Population Bomb''

24. Quotations This vast tragedy, however, is nothing compared to the nutritional disaster that seems likely to overtake humanity in the 1970s (or, at the latest, the 1980s)... A situation has been created that could lead to a billion or more people starving to death. - Paul Ehrlich, "The End of Affluence" (1974), p.21

25. Quotations Hundreds of millions of people will soon perish in smog disasters in New York and Los Angeles...the oceans will die of DDT poisoning by 1979...the U.S. life expectancy will drop to 42 years by 1980 due to cancer epidemics. - Paul Ehrlich, 1969 in Ramparts.

26. Quotations Our position requires that we take immediate action at home and promote effective action worldwide. We must have population control at home, hopefully through changes in our value system, but by compulsion if voluntary methods fail. - Paul Ehrlich

27. Quotations The first task is population control at home. How do we go about it? Many of my colleagues feel that some sort of compulsory birth regulation would be necessary to achieve such control. One plan often mentioned involves the addition of temporary sterilants to water supplies or staple food. Doses of the antidote would be carefully rationed by the government to produce the desired population size. - Paul Ehrlich