Impact of different duration thresholds of residence on migration statistics Patrick Corr Director, Demography Item 6 - WP18 Joint UNECE/Eurostat Work Session on Migration Statistics, Edinburgh, Scotland, November 2006

Australia - Key Facts 7.7 million square km in area 59,700 km of coastline, no land borders Island state of 20.6 million people (heavily urbanised) Population growth rate – 1.3% per annum Half of annual growth due to net overseas migration (NOM) –Government Migration (skilled and family reunion) and Humanitarian Programs –Free movement of Australian and New Zealand citizens –Strong temporary visitor programs (working holiday makers, students, business, tourists, etc.) Over 21 million border crossings every year –Some are multiple movements of individual travelers Legislation requires timely quarterly population estimates

Migration measurement Source: incoming and outgoing passenger cards –Linked to data from passport scans at border and visa applications before arrival Overseas arrivals and departures categorised into –Permanent arrivals –Permanent departures –Visitors arriving on a temporary basis * –Residents departing on a temporary basis * –Visitors departing * –Residents arriving * * Duration in years, months and days: –Long-term (12 months or more) and –Short-term (< 12 months)

International movements, 2005 Arrivals (thousands) Departures (thousands) Permanent12964 Residents, long-term10494 Visitors, long-term21093 Total Perm & long-term Residents, short-term Visitors, short-term Total

International movements, 2005 Arrivals (thousands) Departures (thousands) Permanent12964 Residents, long-term Visitors, long-term Total Perm & long-term Residents, short-term Visitors, short-term Total

Evolution of Net Overseas Migration (NOM) Measurement NOM = A - D NOM = P&LTA – P&LTD NOM = P&LTA – P&LTD + CJ Before onwards MethodTime Frame CJ = Migration category jumping to allow for changes between categories

What if duration of stay/absent was not required

Focus in on net permanent and long-term migration

Focus in on long-term migration, annual totals

Why ? July 1998, card redesign changed method for measuring ACTUAL duration: –stay in Australia for visitors, and –absence from Australia for residents. Before July –travellers were asked to report duration of stay/absence on completion of journey After July –duration derived by matching incoming and outgoing movement records using a purpose-specific personal identification number. –Short breaks interrupt longer stays/absences

Consequences - examples long-term visitors to Australia who leave for short-term absences overseas (e.g. Malaysian university student studying in Australia for 4 years) –Reported intention to stay in Australia for 12 months or more - a long-term visitor arriving Student leaves Australia for academic vacations Could be classified as a visitor departing after short-term stay in Australia by reference back to most recent border movement. No question on whether intends to return to Australia –Multiple long-term arrivals during 4 year stay in Australia –Multiple short-term departures during stay in Australia –Can apply for permanent residence after completing course.

Consequences - examples Australian resident overseas long-term (e.g. working in Roxburghe Hotel using UK passport and working rights on basis of parent’s British origin) –Reports long-term absence on departing Australia each time Taxation minimisation incentive to formally demonstrate “I’m leaving Australia for 2 year or more”. –Returns for Christmas/New Year vacation each year with family/friends in Australia & summer vitamin D generation sessions at beach Never out of Australia for 12 months continuously long-term departure on exit Returning resident away for short-term on arrival.

Improved ABS method Abandon “continuity” in measuring 12 months stay in Australia/ absence from Australia Accumulate stay/absence over sequential periods –Link up individual travel movements into a complete travel history rather than pairs of border crossings to derive duration Accumulate sequential border movements over 16 month period Clean data and impute for implausible movements –Two or more arrivals without a departure –Two or more departures without an arrival

Improved ABS method (2) Resolves multiple movements within year Categorise traveller to duration of stay in Australia over next 16 months after reference quarter: –121 days or less (less than 4 months), –122 to 264 days (four months to less than 12 months), –365 days or more (12 months or more). Consider whether was included in the Australian population at beginning of quarter Based on duration of subsequent stay in Australia (12/16) - –People added to population, subtracted from population or no change (in or out of population).

Results – “Permanent” Migration March Quarter 2004

Residents overseas long-term, March Quarter 2004

Visitors staying long-term, March Quarter 2004

Residents overseas short-term, March Quarter 2004

Visitors staying short-term, March Quarter 2004

Key issues for consideration How duration of stay/absence is measured - –Stated intention at beginning of journey –Stated actual at end of journey –Derived actual based by record linking Should duration for determining long-term/short-term be –The interval between two border movements, or –A period of actual presence (residence) accumulated over a longer period of time What threshold to use for population estimate purposes.