Copyright(c)2012 Juan B. Morales PhD CCP 1 WMTA October 2012 Juan B. Morales de la Garza Ph.D. CCP RUIZ-MORALES & ASSOCIATES October 17 th 2012 Tel :(01152664)

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Copyright(c)2012 Juan B. Morales PhD CCP 1 WMTA October 2012 Juan B. Morales de la Garza Ph.D. CCP RUIZ-MORALES & ASSOCIATES October 17 th 2012 Tel :( ) Fax: ( ) Labor and Economic Indicators Update for 2012

Copyright(c)2012 Juan B. Morales PhD CCP 2 PRESENTATION OBJECTIVES 1.0 Employment Indicators 1.1 Tijuana Turnover 1.2 Tijuana Absenteeism 1.3 Unemployment 2.0 IMMEX Report 3.0 Banxico Survey 4.0 Additional Comments: Labor Reform Minimum Wage Projection

Copyright(c)2012 Juan B. Morales PhD CCP Voluntary Employee Turnover Slightly Higher than 2011

Copyright(c)2012 Juan B. Morales PhD CCP Total Tijuana Employee Absenteeism Slightly Higher than 2011

Copyright(c)2012 Juan B. Morales PhD CCP Unemployment 1Q 2012 Baja California (5.7%) Higher than National (4.9%) 2Q 2012 Baja California (6.1%) Higher than National (4.8%)

Copyright(c)2012 Juan B. Morales PhD CCP Unemployment 1Q 2012 Baja California (5.7%) 6.4% Males 4.6% Females 2Q Q 2012 Baja California (6.1%) 6.6% Males 5.3% Females

Copyright(c)2012 Juan B. Morales PhD CCP EMPLOYMENT INDICATORS Total IMMEX Establishments 6,279: Manufacturing: 5,094 (81.1%) Non-Manufacturing: 1,185 (18.9%)

Copyright(c)2012 Juan B. Morales PhD CCP EMPLOYMENT INDICATORS Total IMMEX Employment 2’206,837 : Manufacturing: 1,966,906 (89.1%) Non-Manufacturing: 239,931 (10.9%)

Copyright(c)2012 Juan B. Morales PhD CCP EMPLOYMENT INDICATORS IMMEX Manufacturing Employment IMMEX Manufacturing Employment 1,966,906: Hired Directly: 1,482,620 (75.4%) Sub-Contracted: 484,286 (24.6%)

Copyright(c)2012 Juan B. Morales PhD CCP 10

Copyright(c)2012 Juan B. Morales PhD CCP 11

Copyright(c)2012 Juan B. Morales PhD CCP Additional Comments: Labor Reform First Minimum Wage Negociation for the New Sexenium: -- Questions that must be Answered: Congress – Final Version of the Labor Reform… -- Labor Reform and ??? Fiscal Reform ???. Other Considerations: USA – Obama o Romney ??? Mexico’s Window of Oportunity vs China…

Copyright(c)2012 Juan B. Morales PhD CCP Minimum Wage for 2013

Copyright(c)2012 Juan B. Morales PhD CCP Minimum Wage for 2013 Minimum Wage Trends 2006 ($48.67) – 2012 ($62.33):

Copyright(c)2012 Juan B. Morales PhD CCP Minimum Wage for 2013 R-M Projection: 4.5% and 5.5% Minimum Wage as a Macroeconomic Variable:

Copyright(c)2012 Juan B. Morales PhD CCP 16 Dr. Juan B. Morales de la Garza CCP DESPACHO RUIZ-MORALES Y ASOCIADOS Thank You ! Questions ?