THE DEMOGRAPHIC TRANSITION AND THE GREAT POPULATION THEORISTS

THE DEMOGRAPHIC TRANSITION MODEL (DTM)  It is a model of population change based upon effects of economic development.  Based on the experience of the western world.  Used for decades as a model to predict what should/would happen to developing countries eventually.  This model consists of four stages.

STAGE ONE  Death and birth rates are high and roughly in balance, equaling little or no population increase.  The number of people in each age group is less than the previous one.  High infant mortality rate so parents have more children to compensate  High death rate due to disease, famine, lack of heath-care  Is evidence of a pre-industrial society.

STAGE TWO  Dramatic decline in death rates, but there are high birth rates.  Onset of industrialization and related health and medical advances  Production of food rises  Many developing countries are currently in this stage

STAGE THREE  Low death rates, and declining birth rates due to voluntary decisions to reduce family size aided by improved contraception, improved standards of living and education.  Fewer labourers needed due to mechanization  Equality of women  Many developing countries are currently in stage 3

STAGE FOUR  Low steady death and birth rates, therefore the population is stable  Low natural increase rate  Many developed countries are in stage four

POPULATION THEORIES (OPTIMISTIC VIEWS) Cornucopians  Desire to expand population – questions still remains whether Earth can support it.  Faith in human ability to find technological innovations that will produce revolutionary increases in the carrying capacity.

POPULATION THEORIES (OPTIMISTIC VIEWS) D.J. Bogue- 1960’s  Theory of demographic regulation - over an extended period of time, a society naturally limits its population. Population only grows in response to Earth’s ability to support larger populations  Demographic transition model – developed countries the process has been completed, developing countries the process continues.  E.g. China – 1 child policy

POPULATION THEORIES (OPTIMISTIC VIEWS) Esther Boserup – A Danish agronomist  Based research in various land use systems, ranging from extensive shifting cultivation in the tropical rainforests to more intensive multiple cropping, as in South East Asia  She published The Conditions of Agricultural Growth (1965) where she claimed that demographic pressure promotes innovation and higher productivity in use of land (irrigation, weeding, crop intensification, better seeds) and labour (tools, better techniques). Her key quote is “Necessity is the mother of invention” i.e. when humans are anticipating shortages of natural resources e.g. food, water and land etc. they find ways, they innovate, to provide these resources.

POPULATION THEORIES (PESSIMISTIC VIEWS) Thomas Malthus-  British clergyman and Economist who created a theory to provide a possible warning for the future.  Lived from  He wrote “ An essay on the principle of population” in 1798  It was quite revolutionary and controversial in his time  His essay is often times described as pessimistic and barbaric, as it predicted nothing short of a catastrophe for the human race.

MAIN POINTS OF HIS THEORY:  Malthus‘s theory was based on the assumption that the power of population is much greater than the power of the earth to provide subsistence for man.  Meaning, he believed that the population would soon surpass it’s food supply.  This, in his belief, could only lead to disease, high infant mortality, famine, starvation, and war.  Checks were then necessary to prevent this.

MALTHUS STATES THAT: Population, if left unchecked, will grow arithmetically: 1, 2, 4, 8, 16, 32 Whereas food supply increases geometrically as the amount of land is finite: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6

there would be a Malthusian catastrophe: AND THEREFORE HE SAID … PopulationFood supply Time Food supply Population At the point where population reaches its limit of food supply there will be war, famine and disease.

PREVENTATIVE AND POSITIVE CHECKS Preventative Checks:Positive Checks:  Abortion  Delays in marriage  Strict celibacy  Which all would lower the fertility rate  War  Disease  Famine  Which would increase the mortality rate and reduce life expectancy

WAS MALTHUS RIGHT? Did his rather gloomy theory have any basis in truth? Critics argue that Malthus did not foresee the advancements mankind has made in technology and agriculture. So is his theory relevant to today’s society?

Catton  Introduced the concept of Earth’s carrying capacity which states can only be exceeded at the expense of environmental damage  Suggests the earth has been exceeding its carrying capacity for many years but excess has only been possible because we are using the world’s finite non-renewable resources  Our descendants will need industrial raw materials in the future but their won’t be any  modernized the views of Malthus  This creates a phantom carrying capacity that is non- sustainable and eventually leads to economic and ecologic collapse

A COMPARISON: Malthus believed : Boserup believed:  Food supply limits population size  Population growth would soon outstrip food supply.  This would lead to famine, war, and disease.  Preventative and positive checks would be needed.  With a growth in population people would find new ways of acquiring food.  This would lead to technological and agricultural advances.  There would be no need to reduce population size.

 If Boserup was right, then the most technologically advanced places would be the ones closest to a Malthusian crisis. This is not so. As the places with the larger populations and near starving people, have low tech agriculture.  If Malthus was right, places with large populations that are still increasing, will eventually surpass their food supply and become famine and war stricken. Or would have already done so. A COMPARISON: