timeline Nov – scenarios, model runs Dec – draft report

Coastal Zone Management Authority & Institute MISSION: o“To support the allocation, sustainable use and planned development of Belize's coastal resources through increased knowledge and the building of alliances for the benefit of all Belizeans and the global community”.

BELIZE’s Coastal & Marine Wealth

COASTAL CAPITAL of BELIZE oTourism: US$150-$196 million/yr (snorkeling, diving, sport fishing, etc) oFisheries: US$14-$16 million/yr (lobster, conch, finfish, aquaculture) oShoreline Protection: US$ million/yr (avoided damages via mangroves, coral reefs) Source: Cooper, E., L. Burke and N. Bood “Coastal Capital of Belize. The Economic Contribution of Belize’s Coral Reefs and Mangroves.” Working Paper, World Resources Institute. Economic Contribution of Belize’s Coral Reefs and Mangroves

REAPING the BENEFITS but little InVESTment in Nature?

History of Belize’s Coastal Planning Efforts 1989: Recognition of need for integrated coastal zone management (CZM) 1990: CZM Technical Committee formed and CZM Unit established under Fisheries Department 1993: UNDP/GEF CZM Project launched 1998:Establishment of CZMA/I under CZM Act 2001: National ICZM Strategy and Coastal Planning Regions 2002:Appointment of Coastal Advisory Committees (CACs)** 2004:Development Guidelines for Coastal Planning Regions (8) 2005:Considerable scaling back of resources :Transition Period 2008-Present:CZMAI Re-instituted/Coastal Planning Unit Reformed

A Coastal Zone Management Plan for Belize Key Components: oDevelopment Suitability Guidelines oBiological monitoring guidelines for species, communities and habitats oPreservation and management of cultural resources oConservation of threatened, potentially threatened or endangered species oPreservation of land and marine environs oIncreased public participation in ICZM

ENSURE focus on economic, cultural and social well-being RECOGNIZE stakeholder role in developing initiatives and policies PROMOTE cross-sectoral decision making INCORPORATE existing policies for development and conservation ALLOW for regional and local planning Key Functions:

A Coastal Zone Management Plan for Belize THEN… oStrong focus on the development & conservation of land mass on atolls and cayes oCriteria used for recommended conservation and development areas subjective (expert advice) oNo spatially explicit plan NOW… oEmphasis on ecosystem- based management of both coastal and marine environs oCombination of objective science-based tool and expert advice is informing development and conservation areas oSpatially explicit coastal and marine spatial plan

Coastal zone management plan for Belize Draft zoning schemes current uses future uses CACs, other stakeholder engagement Other reports (e.g., sustainable tourism) HIGH RISK VULNERABILITY EXPOSURE Risk to habitats coral mangroves seagrass Fisheries Coastal protection Tourism opportunities Stakeholder, local scientists and government officials

Risk to habitats coral mangroves seagrass HIGH RISK VULNERABILITY EXPOSURE Coastal zone management plan for Belize Fisheries Coastal protection Tourism opportunities Stakeholder, local scientists and government officials Draft zoning schemes current uses future uses CACs, other stakeholder engagement Other reports (e.g., sustainable tourism)

Zones (CURRENT USES) Marine Transportation Tourism/Recreation Biodiversity Critical Habitats Shoals Fishing Coastal & Marine Managed Areas Special Development Areas Cultural & Historical Areas Human Settlements Coastal Development

The CAC Consultation Process

Usage of CAC Input Development of Scenarios Ideal Scenario Unregulated Scenario VS.

CURRENTMANAGEDUNCHECKED DEVELOPMENT Protected Areas High impact Low impact Draft

Coastal zone management plan for Belize Draft zoning schemes current uses future uses CACs, other stakeholder engagement Other reports (e.g., sustainable tourism) Fisheries Coastal protection Tourism opportunities Stakeholder, local scientists and government officials Risk to habitats coral mangroves seagrass HIGH RISK VULNERABILITY EXPOSURE

CURRENTMANAGEDUNCHECKED HABITAT HIG H RISK VULNERABILITY EXPOSURE Draft

Coastal zone management plan for Belize Draft zoning schemes current uses future uses CACs, other stakeholder engagement Other reports (e.g., sustainable tourism) Stakeholder, local scientists and government officials Risk to habitats coral mangroves seagrass HIGH RISK VULNERABILITY EXPOSURE Fisheries Coastal protection Tourism opportunities

InputsOutputs Fishing zone Where do people catch lobster? Habitat Where? How much? Fishing pressure How much do people fish? Catch of spiny lobster (no./m 2 /yr) Market value of catch ($/m 2 /yr) Value of habitats that support lobster What areas are most important for catch of spiny lobster? Where should mangroves and corals be protected in order to maintain lobster catch? What areas are most important for catch of spiny lobster? Where should mangroves and corals be protected in order to maintain lobster catch? Marine InVEST Lobster fishery model

CURRENTMANAGEDUNCHECKED 1816 lbs1343 lbs1722 lbs Coral Seagrass Mangrove (Areas in km 2 ) LOBSTER CATCH & HABITAT AREA Draft

Coastal zone management plan for Belize Draft zoning schemes current uses future uses CACs, other stakeholder engagement Other reports (e.g., sustainable tourism) Stakeholder, local scientists and government officials Risk to habitats coral mangroves seagrass HIGH RISK VULNERABILITY EXPOSURE Fisheries Coastal protection Tourism opportunities

Site characteristics bathymetry, topography Biotic features kelp, seagrass, coral, mangrove Outputs Erosion and flood control (area of land protected) Coastal protection Social data land tenure, population levels, home values Avoided damage costs to property ($) Storm characteristics wind, waves, sea level Inputs Will restoration or protection of critical habitats provide cost effective protection from flooding and erosion? # of people protected Relative exposure

Erosion for Current & Future Unchecked Development

Changes in wave height due to SLR, habitat change, and hurricane cat 4 Managed future Unchecked development

Coastal zone management plan for Belize Draft zoning schemes current uses future uses CACs, other stakeholder engagement Other reports (e.g., sustainable tourism) Stakeholder, local scientists and government officials Risk to habitats coral mangroves seagrass HIGH RISK VULNERABILITY EXPOSURE Fisheries Coastal protection Tourism opportunities

Inputs Demographics population Attractors cultural, natural Outputs % of visitors to different locations Tourism/recreation Superstructure roads, hotels Expenditures by visitors What areas are most visited by tourists and how would visitation be affected by conservation or development?

CURRENTMANAGEDUNCHECKED D RECREATION/ TOURISM % Visitation Draft

Effect of alternative zoning schemes on uses and services Current zones of use Managed development/ protection Unchecked development High impact dev0.22 km km Low impact dev0.08 km14.21 km0 km Habitat area587 km565 km493 km Lobster catch lbs lbs lbs Coastal protection Tourism/recreation

Economic effect of alternative zoning schemes on uses and services Current zones of use Managed development/ protection Unchecked development High impact dev$$$ Low impact dev$$$ Habitat area Lobster catch $$$ Coastal protection$/# people Tourism/recreation$$$

High impact dev Low impact dev Habitat area Lobster catch Coastal protection Recreation/tourism Effect of alternative zoning schemes on uses and services ManagedUnchecked Yes No Yes

Main take home messages from Vincent – loved the use of models for the process! Social and economic valuation Scenarios Climate change “validation” of data and models

CURRENTMANAGEDUNCHECKED $2,279,823$1,685,313 $2,161, Coral Seagrass Mangrove (Areas in km 2 ) Lobster gross export revenue & habitat area Draft

Erosion for Current & Future Unchecked Development Value of habitats for protection $63,645,120 to $325,499,328 Plus 30 miles * $300 seawall

Main take home messages from Vincent – loved the use of models for the process! Social and economic valuation -WRI study (static) -InVEST study (forecast future) -Always include habitat data Scenarios -Zone the whole coast? -What are the scenario elements we need for the “narrative we have to build” – the case for the plan -How durable is the plan (good for 5 years, 10 years?, timeframe of model application) Climate change -Essentially 2x the scenarios (management, management + climate) “validation” of data and models -Robustness of input data – time frame, who collected etc. -Credibility – e.g., get fisheries dept to “sign off” on models -Compare outputs to available data (e.g., fisheries model fitting compare to long term data on catch, e.g., recreation model – compare # for MPAs, to visitation data, e.g., coastal protection – Abalone caye data?)

Tourism/recreation Model Inputs % land population (#people) % protected % coral % mangrove % seagrass % developed

Catch in year 2021 (lbs/km 2 ) What areas are important for catch of spiny lobster?

What habitat areas are important for catch of spiny lobster? Catch in year 2021 (lbs/km 2 )

Loss of habitats decreases catch Current habitat50% reduction in habitat per planning region

Catch in year 2021 (lbs/km 2 ) What areas are important for catch of spiny lobster?