Theories of Change and Logic Modeling: Matching Means and Ends Effective Professional Development Resulting in Long-Term Student Achievement NCLB/ITQ Symposium October 10, 2008

IBHE Model for Evaluation

Theory of Action Universal Theory of Action: Collaborative partnerships are the mechanism for action Project Theories of Action: how each intervention is delivered train-the-trainers model on-line learning model direct instruction model cooperative learning model workshop series model mentor/mentee model The Theory of Action describes HOW a project is delivered, usually based on the professional development literature

Limitations of Theories of Action They describe HOW a project is delivered, not WHY it will work or what EFFECTS it will have. They are therefore evaluated by outputs, not by outcomes/effects. Output evaluation is necessary, but not sufficient, to show value for the project.

Theory of Change: Three Elements

Element One: The Change Framework A backward mapping process that begins with Outcomes to plan, implement, and continuously develop and improve programs

Element Two: Program Interventions Designing interventions or activities intended to create desired results, and linking them systematically

Element Three: Program Assumptions Carefully articulating assumptions about how change will occur and testing the assumptions systematically through evaluation

Theory of Change: Background Evaluation is challenging because program assumptions are not well-articulated. The more complex the problem, the more difficult it is to be clear about how things will change as a result of the program. By designing a Pathway of Change, program developers/ implementers/ evaluators, can strengthen the case that an intervention caused a result.

Theory of Change: Process Backward mapping from long, short, and mid-range goals or outcomes laid out in sequence Link outcomes to program elements Plan evaluation from the outset to track achievement of the intended outcomes Use evaluation results for improvement and accountability

Broad Benefits of Theories of Change “Stakeholders value theories of change as part of program planning and evaluation because they create a commonly understood vision of the long-term goals, how they will be reached, and what will be used to measure progress along the way.” ActKnowledge/The Aspen Roundtable www.theoryofchange.org

Theory of Change:Project Benefits Makes explicit the basis for the project intervention Consolidates the research that undergirds the project Provides an overarching framework for project planning, implementation and evaluation

Theory of Change and Logic Modeling A Logic Model is a graphic form of a Theory of Change Takes the theory, which is selected on the basis of empirical evidence that it will work, and translates it into an operational plan. Created by backward mapping.

The “IfThen” Connections IF certain inputs are available… THEN certain activities/interventions can take place; IF these interventions occur… THEN certain outputs will be seen; and IF the interventions are effective… THEN certain outcomes will be attained. Finally, what we learn from the outputs and outcomes can be used to improve the intervention.

Building the Logic Model Start with the Theory of Change: “Companies do better when their employees are healthy.” Cite empirical evidence for this theory.

Building the Logic Model Do the backward mapping Ask and answer the “How?” questions Centers for Disease Control Healthier Worksite Initiative http://www.cdc.gov/nccdphp/dnpa/hwi/program_design/logic_model.htm

Building The Logic Model Lay out the steps in order from inputs to outcomes Answer the “Why?” questions. Centers for Disease Control Healthier Worksite Initiative http://www.cdc.gov/nccdphp/dnpa/hwi/program_design/logic_model.htm

Building The Logic Model Create the model with appropriate connections INPUTS Funding Staff Scientific Evidence

Building The Logic Model Create the model with appropriate connections INPUTS INTERVENTION Funding Staff Scientific Evidence Workplace Walkability Program

Building The Logic Model Create the model with appropriate connections INPUTS INTERVENTION OUTPUT Funding Staff Scientific Evidence Employees walk to meetings more often Workplace Walkability Program

Building The Logic Model Create the model with appropriate connections INPUTS INTERVENTION OUTPUT OUTCOMES Employee level of physical activity and fitness increases Funding Staff Scientific Evidence Employees walk to meetings more often Workplace Walkability Program Productivity Increases

Building The Logic Model Create the model with appropriate connections Identify your evaluation measures for outputs and outcomes INPUTS INTERVENTION OUTPUT OUTCOMES Employee level of physical activity and fitness increases Funding Staff Scientific Evidence Employees walk to meetings more often Workplace Walkability Program Productivity Increases Employee Logs Employee Fitness Screenings Company Data

Project Benefits of Logic Models They make a stronger case for project investment – funders understand more clearly what you intend to do They reflect group process and understanding among project staff and project participants They indicate where and how to evaluate program effects

We Now Find These Everywhere U.S. Department of Health & Human Services Idaho State Board of Education

We Now Find These Everywhere National Institute of Standards and Technology processoutcome.org Research Utilization Support & Help (RUSH) Canadian Department of Justice

Ohio Department of Education (ODE) NOT Recommended! Ohio Department of Education (ODE)