Vulnerability and adaptation to climate variability and water stress in Uttaranchal state, India Ulka Kelkar, TERI International workshop on climate change and sustainable development 7-8 April 2006, New Delhi

Water and agriculture  Greatest vulnerability in unsustainably managed ecosystems that are currently water stressed (IPCC)  General reduction in quantity of available runoff in all river basins, except Narmada and Tapi (Natcom); Ganges and Krishna basins show major declining trends (Indo-UK)  Increased summer snowmelt and decline in snow storage in dry season  MDG target Halve by 2015 the proportion of people who suffer from hunger Halve proportion of people without safe drinking water by 2015  X Plan goals 4% pa growth of agricultural GDP [3.2% in , 2.6% in , 1.8% in ]

Projected impact of climate change on rainfall in Lakhwar sub-basin Narula and Bhadwal (2003)

 What is the capacity of households in the study region to cope with current climatic variability and water stress?  Are their responses only temporary coping measures, or would help them adapt in the long run?  What are the possible scenarios of interventions that can help adapt to water stress due to climate change? Research questions

Study region Digitized streams Subbasins Streams Outlets # Linking stream added Outlet Upper Yamuna sub-basin Lakhwar watershed

A journey to Lakhwar

Agriculture in Uttaranchal hills  Fragmented terraces - “ Equitable, if impoverished, land distribution ”  Only 14% irrigated area in hill districts; 46% in foothills and plains  Tradition of water harvesting – neglect and disrepair  Springs are drying up - “ too little – too much ”  Migration – lack of labour

Identification of water stressed areas

Water balance modelling SWAT – surface runoff, soil moisture development and lateral runoff, and groundwater recharge MODFLOW – groundwater movement

Areas 1 and 2 are most water stressed Lakhwar Chhotau

Preliminary observations from participatory case studies LakhwarChhotau

Caste stratification and land holdings (a) Lakhwar village Average landholding size 2.5 ha (b) Chhotau village Average landholding size 0.8 ha

Community perceptions about climate and water stress  Earlier one could not see the stars throughout shravana  Maize should have been planted by the beginning of June but the rains have been coming late every year  As children, as soon as we saw rain, we would bring down the livestock from the hilly slopes, to save them from being drowned. Now the streams are all dry.  But for many years there has been no snowfall in December. There is late snow in January-February which melts away and does not feed into the streams.  years it used to snow for stretches of 2-4 days when livestock were kept in the house and men would stay indoors and play cards. The snow was like manure – knee deep snow that covered the ground and retained soil moisture underneath.

Stresses and coping measures  Migratory stresses + price incentives  Cropping pattern changed from “ 12 seeds ” to maize and cash crops  Economic pressures Low returns High aspirations  Ecological pressures Dependence on rainfall Reduced livestock ownership Reduced pulses cultivation Average annual hh income reported Lakhwar Harijan – USD 428 Lakhwar Rajput – USD 1621 Chhotau Harijan – USD 380 Chhotau Brahmin – USD 408

Group discussions and timelines

Insights and scope for further work  Insights Mismatch between top-down policy prescription and ground-level realities and aspirations Key determinants of vulnerability e.g. caste (and not land holdings) limits adaptation options Coping measures may increase vulnerability – inadequate to deal with prolonged stress  Scope Pilot testing of participatory approach - Programme of participatory research on adaptation responses evolved by affected communities

Thank you START, IIASA, Packard Foundation SMTA (Society for Motivational Training and Action) People of Lakhwar and Chhotau