1 Dennis Meadows; 8/9/09 The Next Agenda for Sustainable Development Research Dennis Meadows 2009 Balaton Group Meeting Balatonszemes, Hungary;

2 Dennis Meadows; 8/9/09 The global society will change more over the next 20 years than in the past 100. How can we design our efforts to have the maximum professional impact? How can we design our efforts to minimize the disruption to our personal lives?

3 Dennis Meadows; 8/9/09 I will indicate why I foresee a period of enormous change. Then I will list and justify my selections for: The clients to address. The high leverage issues for the next two decades. A few of the solutions that I believe have the potential for revolutionary impact.

4 Dennis Meadows; 8/9/09 We are entering a period of enormous change

5 Dennis Meadows; 8/9/09 The Reference Scenario Original Report Today Industrial Output Population Pollution Food Resources

6 Dennis Meadows; 8/9/09 World Population

7 Dennis Meadows; 8/9/09 Industrial Production

8 Dennis Meadows; 8/9/09 Index of World Metals Use

9 Dennis Meadows; 8/9/09 One Indicator of Overshoot

10 Dennis Meadows; 8/9/09 USA = 9

11 Dennis Meadows; 8/9/09 The main forces for change will be climate change and resource scarcity - especially fossil fuels and water.

12 Dennis Meadows; 8/9/09 Climate Change

13 Dennis Meadows; 8/9/09 CO 2 Concentration

14 Dennis Meadows; 8/9/09 Temperature in Austria for different climate scenarios Formayer 2008 Today Goal

15 Dennis Meadows; 8/9/09 New Report Says World Is Warming Faster than Thought a new study by an international research team has determined that the two-degree goal is no longer achievable. Volker Mrasek, Der Spiegel on-line;

16 Dennis Meadows; 8/9/09 Fossil Fuel Depletion

17 Dennis Meadows; 8/9/09

18 Dennis Meadows; 8/9/09 Amounts and Sources of Energy in Austria: Coal Oil Gas Solar

19 Dennis Meadows; 8/9/ Energy Use by Function Transport is the largest and fastest growing sector

20 Dennis Meadows; 8/9/09 Transportation Cost Declined: All values in $US

21 Dennis Meadows; 8/9/09 Cheap Transport Has Enabled: Urbanization of the population –High-rise structures Globalization of trade Diversification of the food supply Build up of large populations in arid areas Mass tourism Maintenance of public health Projection of global military power Many other dominant features of industrial society

22 Dennis Meadows; 8/9/09 The Easy Oil is Gone Oil discoveries peaked in 1960s. Every year since 1984 oil consumption has exceeded oil discovery. In 2006 discoveries = 9 billion barrels (bb), consumption = 31 bb. Of the world ’ s 20 largest oil fields, 18 were discovered ; 2 in the 1970s; 0 since. Oil production in 2007 was lower than in One projection is that oil production in 2030 will be half current levels.

23 Dennis Meadows; 8/9/09 Energy Gap Today 13 TW, 2050 projected - 30 Projected shortfall is ~ 15 TW Building MW nuclear plant/day for 50 years would give 10 TW Wind offers 2-4 TW Solar offers 20 globally Biomass has 7-10 theoretical maximum

24 Dennis Meadows; 8/9/09 Some Net Energy Yields US Oil: ; ; Imported Oil: 30 Coal: Nuclear: 10 Firewood: 25 Photovoltaics: Oil Sands: 2-3

25 Dennis Meadows; 8/9/09 Energy Return on Investment

26 Dennis Meadows; 8/9/09 Demography Living Style Energy Efficiency Solar Energy CultureTechnology

27 Dennis Meadows; 8/9/09 Two Types of Problems Global Problems - affect everyone and they can only be solved by international effort: climate change, ocean fish depletion, nuclear proliferation, changing consumer preferences. Universal Problems - affect everyone and they can be solved by local effort: energy scarcity, soil erosion, water pollution, loss of market share, falling corporate profits.

28 Dennis Meadows; 8/9/09 Two Types of Policy Preventive policies reduce or avoid problems. Adaptive policies reduce the harmful consequences of problems that can not be prevented.

29 Dennis Meadows; 8/9/09 The Best Clients Need: Sufficient resources to pay for the analysis and then implement the recommendations. A time horizon long enough to stay focused on the issue until positive results can be achieved.

30 The Best Clients Resources Time Horizon Individuals & Organizations Communities Nations & International Organizations Clients’ Potential for Change

31 Thus I recommend helping communities develop preventive policies for universal problems and adaptive problems for global problems

32 Cautions I do not list all the problems I foresee. Of course there will be problems that I do not now anticipate. The problems will be combined and synergistic. The problems will not grow slowly; there will be tipping points.

33 Dennis Meadows; 8/9/09 Emerging Problems for Communities Water –Using water that is recycled from earlier use. –Ensuring equitable public access. –Achieving drastically greater efficiency in water use. –Implementing absolute demand limits. Energy –Rationing increasingly scarce energy supplies in ways that are equitable. –Lowering expectations about energy reliability. –Integrating non-carbon and decentralized sources into the grid. –Achieving drastically greater efficiency in energy use.

34 Dennis Meadows; 8/9/09 Emerging Problems Climate –Improving monitoring and response for temperature-related public health emergencies. –Reducing damage from fluctuations in wind and precipitation. –Coping with increased water levels in coastal communities. Food –Preparing for interruptions in food supply from problems in transport and production. Waste –Reducing the energy costs of collection and disposal systems. –Reducing waste streams; increasing recycling of waste and products Governance –Increasing community cohesion and time horizon.

35 Dennis Meadows; 8/9/09 Criteria for Selecting Technologies Not currently the focus of much national political attention. Have the potential to yield short-term benefits to one or more important interest groups, while solving long-term problems. Address local issues. Offer important solutions to urgent problems of the future.

36 Dennis Meadows; 8/9/09 Potentially Revolutionary Technologies Biochar Local currencies Cogenerating technologies for high-temperature geothermal Hardware and software for the smart grid –integrating electric cars into the grid. –promoting off-peak heat storage. Community gardens Car sharing Communal living

37 Dennis Meadows; 8/9/09 I have two pens Montblanc Sundance

38 Dennis Meadows; 8/9/09 The Montblanc Pen I use it for writing. It is made from platinum and precious resin. It cost about US $250.

39 Dennis Meadows; 8/9/09 The Sundance Pen I use it for writing. It is made from wood, plastic, and recycled cardboard. It cost about US $1.

40 Dennis Meadows; 8/9/09 Which pen is more sustainable? Refer to the Montblanc as pen #1; refer to the Sundance as pen #2. Please decide which pen you think is more sustainable and show either 1 or 2 fingers silently to the person sitting next to you.

41 Dennis Meadows; 8/9/09 More Information I never take the Montblanc pen out of my office, so I will use it the rest of my life and then pass it on to a relative. I lose the Sundance pen almost every time I take it away from my home, so I have to buy many dozens of them each year. When the Montblanc pen ink cartridge becomes empty, I buy a refill. If I still have the Sundance pen when its ink cartridge becomes empty, I will throw the pen away and get a new one.

42 Dennis Meadows; 8/9/09 I will ask again: Which pen is more sustainable? Refer to the Montblanc as pen #1; refer to the Sundance as pen #2. Please decide which pen you think is more sustainable and show either 1 or 2 fingers silently to the person sitting next to you.

43 Dennis Meadows; 8/9/09 Main Lessons Many votes changed after the new information. The new information did not describe the pens ’ physical technology; it described my relationship, habits, and attitudes toward the pens. Sustainability is not mainly in the physical technology of the tool, it is in our relationship to the tool. Achieving sustainable development in the next two decades will require changes in attitudes and goals.