16 October 2007 Focus and Convergence Challenges for Complexity Science List of Candidate Topics Focus and Convergence Challenges for Complexity Sciences Workshop October 2007

16 October 2007 Focus and Convergence Challenges for Complexity Science Initial Topics List (1) Risk: Dealing with uncertainty and complexity Prediction (improve, mitigate inability to) Agility (scaleability, “networked” agility) Understanding limits –To prediction –To engineering –To “control” Assessing performance of endeavors (beyond materiel aspects to task performance) –Measures of merit –Beyond a single arbiter of value –Measures of merit Developing surrogates for after-the-fact knowledge of “success” Tied to prediction problem – can we define metrics to help us design, train and resource forces that are tied to what the SoS will be called on to do in the environment?

16 October 2007 Focus and Convergence Challenges for Complexity Science Initial Topics List (2) How to “model”; “data farm” Leadership Human performance (in a net centric environment/complex endeavor) Attacks on “our” networks Integration of non-DoD entities (Network Centric) Cyber C2 (computer network attack, computer network exploitation, computer network defense; all are interrelated) Civil, military, international – cyberspace is borderless, but government agencies have boundaries What do C2 concepts such as situational awareness, command intent, etc. mean in complex systems/environments? C2 approach space – edge?...hierarchy?...choices.

16 October 2007 Focus and Convergence Challenges for Complexity Science Initial Topics List (3) NECC (transformational programs v. programs that modernize) Understand “space of possibilities” Systems-of-systems (federations?) –Design, engineering, test Impacts for doctrine Convergence of domains (social and technical) Realities of practical limitations (bandwidth, lack of interoperability, differences in capability) Synchronization or convergence (shared awareness, planning, also in actions)

16 October 2007 Focus and Convergence Challenges for Complexity Science Initial Topics List (4) Adaptation of CAS theory to Social Entities with power relationships? (agency) Causality [inability to understand] (if it exists)– related to predictability Tolerance for Ambiguity / Ability to deal with “effective simplification” Uncertainty Sensemaking (collective focus and convergence) and Networked (complex) endeavor Networks (understanding the science of) – Complexity behavior/stability/dynamics Cyber Space [ translation of concepts of stealth, etc] How C2 Happens? [ outside of traditional military] (emergence)

16 October 2007 Focus and Convergence Challenges for Complexity Science Initial Topics List (5) Coping with civil-mil endeavors (adapting C2) C2 of Complex Endeavors [how it emerges from individual entity C2] Coping with Complexity [environment, one “org”] – control vs laissez faire Measure effects [of our actions] Whole of gov’t [C2, infrastructure] Trust [ how to impact/improve, measurement] C2 = how org works (affected by complex environment) by networking Marry SE (hard) and (soft) CAS, social networks Agility (improvisation/adapt make) – role of in complex endeavors, how to enable with kit (building blocks)

16 October 2007 Focus and Convergence Challenges for Complexity Science Initial Topics List (6) Reconcile Hierarchy (what do you actually need), Common Resource (governance), Autonomy (“wisdom of crowds”) - platform (what it does? Who reins?) Entity—group (network? Endeavor?) Understanding [Sensemaking] Complex environments C2 approach space– (fit limitations)- problem space [ need to characterize– complex endeavors] Quantification [ measurement]- uncertainty, agility What should be controlled (influence) Prepare, equip, train Tools- when C2 is working, -why not, options Replacing optimization with agility?