Regional Visioning Land Use and Transportation for Four Million New Residents A Presentation to the New York Metropolitan Transportation Council February 16 th, 2006

National & Regional Growth Trends The Land Use-Transportation Connection Visioning Around the Nation & the Region A Long Island Visioning Initiative What’s Next?

Map: University of Pennsylvania U.S. Population Change National Growth Trends

Map: University of Pennsylvania Metropolitan Growth 2005 – 2050 National Growth Trends

Map: University of Pennsylvania Emerging U.S. Mega-Regions 70% of Population 80% of Job Growth National Growth Trends

NYMTC Projections An additional 3.83 million people to the Tri- State region 1.81 million to NYMTC counties Tri-State Regional Growth Trends

How will the region be able to accommodate this growth at all, much less in a manner that simultaneously achieves economic, environmental and social equity goals? Tri-State Regional Growth Trends

Pre-1960= 0.10 acres/person 1960 to 1990=1.2acres/person Land consumption per capita has slowed somewhat since 1990, but rapid exurban growth continues Increasing Land Consumption per Capita : Pre Tri-State Regional Growth Trends

Linking Land Use and Transportation Revitalized Centers in the Urban Core Around a Robust Transit Network

Access to Commuter Rail Station by Walking Distance Linking Land Use and Transportation

Tappan Zee Linking Land Use and Transportation The design of the transportation infrastructure is directly linked to regional land use decisions.

East Side Access/ LIRR Third Track Linking Land Use and Transportation New transportation capacity is critically needed to handle current congestion, but also creates the potential for higher-density development.

Suburban Centers: Nassau Hub Linking Land Use and Transportation

31 COUNTIES3 STATES10 MPOs695 MUNICIPALITIES1 REGION Fragmented Governance

A Growing Number of Areas Have Produced Regional Visions To Guide Future Growth Visioning Around the Nation

Inclusive, consensus based process Define regional values and benchmarks for measuring success Educate public on connections between transportation and land use Develop growth scenarios and corresponding transportation investments through several public workshops Model indicators from each scenario and measure each against regional value benchmarks Implement land use changes in targeted locations Visioning Around the Nation

Define Regional Values and Benchmarks for Measuring Success Workshops Surveys Polling Existing Plan Review Visioning Around the Nation

Develop Growth Scenarios and Corresponding Transportation Investments Through Several Public Workshops Base map accurately depicts conditions on the ground Determine where not to grow Allocate growth in chosen development scenario Determine necessary transportation improvements. Visioning Around the Nation

Model Indicators From Each Scenario and Measure Each Against Regional Value Benchmarks Each scenario generated at workshops is digitized Land use and transportation entered into model Indicators relate to values and benchmarks generated in early stages of process Visioning Around the Nation Business As Usual Metropolis Plan

Implement Land Use Changes in Targeted Locations Changing zoning and development types in limited municipalities can have drastic effect on regional development patters Southern California 2% Solution Visioning Around the Nation

Lessons from Other Regions Envision Utah

Lessons from Other Regions Chicago Metropolis 2020

Lessons from Other Regions SCAG’s Compass

Los Angeles Compass used the most advanced visualization techniques to convey information to participants Lessons from Other Regions

Regional Initiatives Foundations for Visioning in the Region History of regional planning Existing NYMTC forecasts NYMTC sustainable development studies Benchmarking projects, such as Long Island Index Several community visioning projects

Preferred Land Use Scenario Elements of the Concept Plan: Preferred Land Use Scenario Regional Initiatives: SEEDS

Preferred Transportation Scenario Elements of the Concept Plan: Preferred Transportation Scenario Local Initiatives: SEEDS

Local Initiatives: Stamford Several secondary and tertiary centers were identified throughout the city that support the downtown core.

Local Initiatives: Stamford

Long Island Visioning Initiative Planning Underway Business, Political & Civic Planning Group, including county planning departments, LIA, LIRPB, Vision LI, Sustainable LI, RPA, others Stakeholders meetings in April and December, 2005 Analysis of prior and existing plans and vision projects Baseline analysis Development of scenario testing model

Long Island Visioning Initiative

Base Map Long Island Visioning Initiative

Two Test Scenarios Large- Lot Small- Lot Suburban Attached Village Infill Downtown Corridor Centers Oriented37,500 13,000120,00052,000120,000 10% 3%32%14%32% Dispersed111, ,00040,00012,0006,000 29% 26%11%3%2%

Long Island Visioning Initiative

Large Projected Growth to Metropolitan Area We Need to Grow Differently and Create New Transportation Capacity Public Support Will Dictate our Success

Next Steps for the Region Coordinate with NYMTC, other MPOs, planning and transportation agencies Launch Long Island initiative Begin planning and develop partnerships in other parts of the region Complete scenario-testing model

Potential Outcomes Political support for new growth strategies Greater consensus on the next generation of transportation investments Growth in regional centers and transit friendly development Conservation of region-shaping landscapes and estuaries Affordable housing programs and strategies Governance and tax reforms