Tomorrows Safety Case Steve Kinnersly

Slide serial no 2 © 2001 AEA Technology plc Todays Safety Case? A reasoned argument that a system is or will be safe Needed to get a permit to operate Only as good as the day (???) it is written Sits of a shelf Expensive

Slide serial no 3 © 2001 AEA Technology plc Todays Safety Case? A unique collection of data, information, logical argument Lots of future value - if only we can see it and get at it!

Slide serial no 4 © 2001 AEA Technology plc Challenges for tomorrow SAFETY CASE Unlock Value For Business For Operations Safety Issues New Technology Whole Airspace

Slide serial no 5 © 2001 AEA Technology plc Safety Business Risk Business Strategy Regulation Cost/Benefit Unlocking value for Business SAFETY CASE Integrate with BUSINESS MANAGEMENT

Slide serial no 6 © 2001 AEA Technology plc Training Maintenance ATC Ops Management support Unlocking value for Operations SAFETY CASE Integrate with OPERATIONS

Slide serial no 7 © 2001 AEA Technology plc To unlock the value Key Stakeholders Benefits and Value Barriers Enabling Concepts Enabling Technologies Road map

Slide serial no 8 © 2001 AEA Technology plc Advanced planning tools Satellites Decisions by computer New aircraft, airships, … Datalink applications Safety with New Technology SAFETY CASE NEW TECHNOLOGY SAFETY

Slide serial no 9 © 2001 AEA Technology plc Regulation Emergent behaviour Safety case network Resilience Systems integration Trajectory planning Safety for the Whole Airspace SAFETY CASE WHOLE AIRSPACE SAFETY CASE

Slide serial no 10 © 2001 AEA Technology plc Resilience - a concept surfacing? If there is a failure, the real question in not whether the controller can regain control but whether the SYSTEM can recover An unexpected change to a weather front can mean a lot of re-routing at short notice, can we handle it? 100 flights are cancelled because of the weather, what is the effect on the rest of the network? How sensitive is it to uncertainty in departure time? Would the scale of traffic inevitably result in a small perturbation leading to major disruption?

Slide serial no 11 © 2001 AEA Technology plc To deal with the safety issues Why is European airspace safe NOW? Why will it be safe in ? Answers in less than 50 words that can be understood be travellers and senior management! High level safety concepts/principles for new technologies in whole-airspace context Is Resilience a key to the future?

Slide serial no 12 © 2001 AEA Technology plc

Slide serial no 13 © 2001 AEA Technology plc In less than 50 words... European airspace is safe NOW because flights are planned and controlled so aircraft are safely separated and if it looks as if aircraft will get too close there is always somewhere safe to put them and the means to get them there safely.