GENSPACE Air Traffic Management Philippe DEBELS CEATS Research Development and Simulation centre, Budapest European Organisation for the Safety of Air Navigation

ATM : Overview Today Tomorrow The Air Transport “System” Analysis - Performance Tomorrow Forecast Strategy Documents

ATM Today Air Transport System – Actors Main actors Airspace users – The Airlines Airports Air Navigation Service Providers

ATM Today Air Transport – Airlines Europe 5.000 commercial aircraft Average flight 750 km Average flight duration 1h20 30.000 flights per day 10.000.000 flights per year 13.000.000 flight hours per year Load factor (fill rate) 65 % 1 B pax per year (100 pax/flight) 700.000 employees Total revenue 100 B€/year

ATM Today Air Transport – Airports Europe 2.200 airports in 36 countries 766 recognised by IATA 17.700.000 movements/year 135.000 employees Revenue Aeronautical 11 B€/year Non-aeronautical 11 B€/year

ATM Today Air Transport – Air Navigation - Europe ICAO: The contracting States recognize that every State has complete and exclusive sovereignty over the airspace above its territory.

ATM Today Air Transport – Air Navigation - Europe EUROCONTROL: 37 Member States 37 Service Providers (ANSP) 68 Area Control Centres (ACC) 600 Sectors at full capacity Shanwick OAC 417 Towers 199 Approach units 15.000 Air Traffic Controllers 40.000 Support staff 55.000 Employees Total revenue 7.5 B€/year

ATM Today: the System Summary REMEMBER Main figures – Eurocontrol 37 Countries 30.000 flight per day Average 750 km or 1h30 15.000 Air Traffic Controllers (total 55.000 staff) 600 sectors Air Transport European Region : 120 billion €/year ATM cost Europe : 7.5 billion €/year

ATM Today The System – Analysis Fragmentation Heterogeneity Complexity

ATM Today The System – Fragmentation Actors Fragmentation – All actors concerned Airspace: size, military TSA, … ANSPs: civil/military; size; units (ACCs, APPs). ATM systems, interfaces, CNS infrastructure. Process: procurement, development, … Cost estimate fragmentation: 1 B €/year

ATM Today The System - Heterogeneity Productivity: Flight h / ATCO h: 0.13 to 1.53, <> 0.65 Institutional arrangement: Gvt department, State enterprise, Gvt owned company, Limited liability company Safety: Heterogeneous implementation of regulations Costs: Cost controlled flight h: 185 to 650€/h, <> 453€/h Cost of ATCO: 3 to 135€/h, <> 69 €/h Bring ‘last in class’ to average 0.6 B €/year

ATM Today The System - Complexity Non-linear relation between traffic and delays ! Complexity not uniform

ATM Today Performance Review Capacity and Delays Cost-effectiveness Flight efficiency Safety

ATM Today: Performance Capacity and Delays 3-year capacity-traffic lag being squeezed 80% capacity growth 1990-2000 1 minute average delay/flight by 2006 De-coupling delays and traffic growth Investments too much “reactive” ?

ATM Today: Performance Capacity and Delays En-route ATFM delays slightly increasing 1.4 min/flight in high traffic growth, Nearly at economic optimum delay target 1 min/flight Airport ATFM delays warrant special attention.

ATM Today: Performance Capacity and Delays Cost of delays Delay ? Definition ? Cost for whom ? Tactical; Reactionary; Strategic delays; Passengers ? Average 72 €/min Crew 10 € Maintenance 1 € Pax compensation 24 € Pax opportunity cost 36 € 289 €/min <1 €/min 1 1 B €/year

ATM Today: Performance Cost-effectiveness Until now, cost ~ traffic, unit cost and effectiveness stable. But … Available projections indicate that unit costs will decrease more or less in line with the cost-effectiveness target in the coming years.

ATM Today: Performance Flight efficiency Flight not direct. Cause: airspace structure, en-route congestion, route charge differentials . Marginal cost of schedule time: € 19/min for an ATR42 €131/min for a B747-400 average €6.4/NM €3.5/km (2004) Military zone Margin for improvement 1.5 B €/year

ATM Today: Performance Safety Data ? “Some progress … … incident reporting and transparency. Legal and cultural impediments ….. …. still exist 24 regulatory authorities & 19 ANSPs …. not meet acceptable maturity level” ATM contribution: 2..6 % 15 States: more incidents reported; High severity incidents constant

ATM Today: Performance Summary REMEMBER ATM is performing well: Average delays at near economic optimum : 1.4 min/flight Unit costs stable : 0.80 € /km Delay costs for airlines : 70 € /minute But, still high margins for improvements: Safety level (implementation of regulations; reporting) Fragmentation : 1 B€/year Delays (ATFM) : 1 B€ / year Productivity : 0.6 B€ / year Flight Efficiency : 1.5 B€ / year

ATM Tomorrow: Forecast Challenge 1 - Traffic growth Growth of controlled air traffic: 4 % in 2006 Expected to continue at similar rates. Traffic growth varied greatly across control centres in 2006 (0% to +20%).

ATM Tomorrow: Forecast Challenge 1 - Traffic growth Some countries spectacular increases of 20% in 2006 Heterogeneity

ATM Tomorrow: Forecast Challenge 1 - Traffic growth A: strong economies and limited oil price growth B: ‘business as usual’ C: increased environmental costs, larger aircraft, more limited trade, traffic liberalization D: world of tensions between regions and very high oil price

7.0 Mio Flights 8.0 Mio Flights 1997 2000 2010 2020 11.9 Mio Flights Flights 150 or more 2010 2020 11.9 Mio Flights 15.8 Mio Flights DIVISION DED 4 - 4/11/97

ATM Tomorrow: Forecast Challenge 2 - Safety What people perceive Accidents = Traffic x Accident Rate Public perceives Absolute Number of Accident, Not the Accident Rate !  Needs to be lowered drastically !

ATM Tomorrow: Forecast Challenge 2 - Safety At constant Safety Level Relation between accidents rate and traffic is QUADRATIC: absolute accident = constant traffic x 2  safety level x 4 1 2 3 4 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 Traffic (million flights) Risk trend Risk target

ATM Tomorrow: Forecast Challenge 2 - Safety Relation between accidents rate and traffic is quadratic: If absolute accident = constant If Traffic x 2 Then  safety level x 4 3 flights 3 potential conflicts 3 x 2 flights 3 x 22 = 12 potential conflicts 3 flights 3 potential conflicts

ATM Tomorrow Strategy Documents European Commission, Sep.2001 White Paper « European Transport Policy for 2010 » European Commissioner for Research, Jan.2001 Group of Aeronautics Personalities A vision for 2020 Advisory Council for Aeronautics Research in Europe (ACARE) Strategic Research Agenda: SRA-1 and SRA-2 Single European Sky and SESAR

ATM Tomorrow Strategy Documents Challenges for 2020 Traffic: 2000  2020: 3 x more traffic Safety: Accident rate -80%; Safety: x 10 Environment: Emissions, Noise: - 50% … -80% Quality of service Time in airport maximum 15 min (short) and 30 min (long) 99% flight within 15 min of schedule, all weather conditions Security: Zero successful hijack ONE European airspace – “SES” European rules ! New Air Traffic Control Paradigm ?

REMEMBER ATM Tomorrow Summary Traffic increase 4 .. 5% / year Traffic forecast for 2025 2 .. 3 x Safety relation to traffic QUADRATIC Safety target 10 x Quality target Time in airport 15 .. 30 min Punctuality 99% flight within 15 min all weather conditions R&D budget 200 M€/year (3%)

ATM : Preparing for the future Solutions Role of the CRDS

Closing the capacity gap EUROCONTROL Potential solutions Possible solutions : Route optimisation (cf. Flight efficiency) Additional sectors (physical limit) Support tools for controllers New technologies Traffic R&D SESAR R&D R&D CASCADE ModeS FASTI LINK2000 ACAS 8.33 Predicted capacity DMEAN 1 minute delay Safety - Security Airports Closing the capacity gap

A European ATM Master Plan To Unlock Air Transport Converging Industry, EC & EUROCONTROL Needs: Turn off fragmented approach Accelerate ATM evolution in response to challenges Synchronise & integrate plans from research to operations Synchronise airborne and ground deployments SESAR Support Single European Sky technical/operational implementation 3 Phases: Definition of European ATM Master Plan ( early 2008) Development (2008  2013) Deployment (2014  2020)

Closing the capacity gap EUROCONTROL Potential solutions DMEAN 8.33 ModeS LINK2000 ACAS CASCADE FASTI Phase 2 SESAR Predicted capacity Traffic Closing the capacity gap Safety - Security Airports 1 minute delay Programme phases for capacity R&D Phase 1 Phase 3 Possible solutions : Route network optimisation Additional sectors Support tools for controllers New technologies But … Maximum benefit in large airspace Need to be further optimised Need to be tested and validated Task of CRDS Develop and improve the solutions (R&D) Test and validate the solutions (simulations) Disseminate the knowledge (training) FAB CEATS 3 Pillars for CRDS

CRDS 1. R&D Co-ordination Focal point ATM R&D Central Europe CRDS has limited resources for R&D ! Develop own expertise (e.g. civil/military; contingency, data link, …) Act as a catalyst and concentrate on: Issues relevant for CEATS, with potential wider application Domains not yet covered by others Develop partnerships with the EUROCONTROL Experimental Centre, R&D Establishments, Industry, Universities (Graz, Žilina, Budapest, Trieste, Belgrade, Dresden, … ) and Military Academies ! Data link Civil/Military FUA Syst.Appl.Dir.Routing Performance Metrics

2. Validation Simulations CRDS 2. Validation Simulations Validation through simulations Improve and Validate operational and technical concepts Improve : Translate concept in applicable working methods Provide recommendations Validate: Provide information of performance to decision makers Information on Operability, Safety, Capacity, . . Environment, Economy According to common standards E-OCVM for validation methodology ESARRs (2 and 4) : for Risk assessment and Risk mitigation ISO Certification process initiated E-OCVM: European Operational Concept Validation Model ESARR: Eurocontrol Safety Regulatory Requirement

2. Validation Simulations CRDS 2. Validation Simulations Validation through simulations Model-Based Simulations (MBS): Use a mathematical simulator + : faster, large airspace, longer periods - : human is simulated  Capacity, Environment & Economy Real-Time Simulations (RTS): Simulate a “real” environment + : Human participation (controller & pilot) - : Costly and “labour intensive”  Operability & Safety 2001 – 2006 : 18 RTS and 12 MBS 2007 : 4 RTS and 4 MBS + Connect with MALEV Flight Simulator  Capacity: typical 4 RTS and 4 MBS per year, depending on complexity

CRDS 3. Support to Training Support to Training The CRDS will add an additional element to the regional simulation training capability in particular for training and familiarisation with advanced system features. Support “Training of the Trainers” in the context of CEATS In co-operation* with the other ANSP training centres and the EUROCONTROL IANS (Luxembourg). In co-operation with universities in the region  Visitors’ Day, GENSPACE, Advanced Concepts in RTS, … * Co-operation to avoid overlap in existing and future work programmes

CRDS Staff and Resources CRDS Team 13 staff 10 contractors Experienced ATCOs Simulator Facilities Real-Time: 26 Controllers Working Positions 20 Pilot Working Positions ASMT Model-Based (Mathematical models) RAMS Plus TAAM (Total Airspace & Airport Modeller) LUCIAD

EUROCONTROL CRDS Simulator environment