Target setting for the SEE 2020 strategy Jahorina, Bosnia and Herzegovina September 11 th

Agenda Introduction and objectives Target setting for the Overall Strategic Goals Target setting for Integrated Growth Target setting for Smart Growth Target setting for Sustainable Growth Target setting for Inclusive Growth Target setting for Governance for Growth 2

Transforming the SEE 2020 Vision SEE 2020 Vision adopted at the SEE Ministerial Conference: i.Integrated growth to deepen regional trade and investment linkages; ii.Smart growth – innovation and competition based on value-added rather than labour costs iii.Sustainable growth – private sector competitiveness, entrepreneurship, greener and energy-efficient development; iv.Inclusive growth – skills development, employment creation & labour market participation by all v.Governance for growth – improve capacity of public administrations to strengthen the rule of law and reduce corruption A set of headline targets to be adopted at the next Ministerial 3

The proposed process Nov 2011 Apr 2012 Jun 2012 Sep 2012 Nov 2012 Vision adopted First draft targets Targets discussed Second draft targets Written procedure & third draft SEE Min SEE IC Final draft targets Targets adopted SEE Min 4 Task Force Meeting 2 nd Task Force Meeting

Overall Strategic Targets: a)Increase of GDP per capita expressed in PPP relative to the EU b)Growth of total trade of goods and services c)Reduction of trade deficit Integrated Growth a)Growth of intra-regional trade in goods and services b)Growth of overall FDI inflows Smart Growth a)Growth of GDP per person employed An initial set of target indicators 5 Sustainable Growth a)Growth of enterprise creation b)Growth of export of goods and services per capita Inclusive Growth a)Growth of overall employment rate b)Increase of rate of population with tertiary education Governance for Growth a)Increase government effectiveness

Overall Strategic Targets: a)Increase of GDP per capita expressed in PPP relative to the EU b)Growth of total trade of goods and services c)Reduction of trade deficit Integrated Growth a)Growth of intra-regional trade in goods and services b)Growth of overall FDI inflows Smart Growth a)Growth of GDP per person employed An initial set of target indicators 6 Sustainable Growth a)Growth of enterprise creation b)Growth of export of goods and services per capita Inclusive Growth a)Growth of overall employment rate b)Increase of rate of population with tertiary education Governance for Growth a)Increase government effectiveness

7 Overall Strategic Targets: Increase in GDP per capita expressed in PPP relative to the EU Source: World Bank 46%

8 Overall Strategic Targets: Increase in GDP per capita expressed in PPP relative to the EU Sources: IMF, World Bank and SEE economies Year: 2010

9 Overall Strategic Targets: Growth of Total Trade in Goods and Services Source: World Bank 600, ,000

10 Sources: World Bank and SEE economies Year: 2010 Overall Strategic Targets: Growth of Total Trade in Goods and Services

Overall Strategic Targets: Reduction of Trade Deficit 11 Source: World Bank

Overall Strategic Targets: Reduction of Trade Deficit 12 Sources: World Bank and SEE economies Year: 2010

Overall Strategic Targets: a)Increase of GDP per capita expressed in PPP relative to the EU b)Growth of total trade of goods and services c)Reduction of trade deficit Integrated Growth a)Growth of intra-regional trade in goods and services b)Growth of overall FDI inflows Smart Growth a)Growth of GDP per person employed An initial set of target indicators 13 Sustainable Growth a)Growth of enterprise creation b)Growth of export of goods and services per capita Inclusive Growth a)Growth of overall employment rate b)Increase of rate of population with tertiary education Governance for Growth a)Increase government effectiveness

Integrated Growth: Growth of Intra-Regional Trade in Goods (and Services) 14 Sources: OECD ICTS (International Trade by Commodity Statistics) Database and SEE economies Years: 2004 and 2009 For 2004, the exchange rate used was 1.324$=1

Integrated Growth: Growth of Intra-Regional Trade in Goods (and Services) 15 Sources: OECD ICTS (International Trade by Commodity Statistics) Database and SEE economies Year: OECD data for 2009; ALB (goods only), BIH, HRV, MKD, and SRB (goods only) submitted data for 2010

Integrated Growth: Growth of foreign direct investment net inflows 16 Source: World Bank

17 Source: World Bank Integrated Growth: Growth of foreign direct investment net inflows 15, 000

18 Sources: World Bank and SEE economies Year: 2010 Integrated Growth: Growth of foreign direct investment net inflows

Overall Strategic Targets: a)Increase of GDP per capita expressed in PPP relative to the EU b)Growth of total trade of goods and services c)Reduction of trade deficit Integrated Growth a)Growth of intra-regional trade in goods and services b)Growth of overall FDI inflows Smart Growth a)Growth of GDP per person employed An initial set of target indicators 19 Sustainable Growth a)Growth of enterprise creation b)Growth of export of goods and services per capita Inclusive Growth a)Growth of overall employment rate b)Increase of rate of population with tertiary education Governance for Growth a)Increase government effectiveness

Smart Growth: Growth of GDP per person employed 20 Source: World Bank ? 31,000

21 Sources: World Bank and SEE economies Year: 2010 Smart Growth: Growth of GDP per person employed

Overall Strategic Targets: a)Increase of GDP per capita expressed in PPP relative to the EU b)Growth of total trade of goods and services c)Reduction of trade deficit Integrated Growth a)Growth of intra-regional trade in goods and services b)Growth of overall FDI inflows Smart Growth a)Growth of GDP per person employed An initial set of target indicators 22 Sustainable Growth a)Growth of enterprise creation b)Growth of export of goods and services per capita Inclusive Growth a)Growth of overall employment rate b)Increase of rate of population with tertiary education Governance for Growth a)Increase government effectiveness

Sustainable Growth: Growth of Enterprise Creation 23 Source: SEE economies Year: 2010; ALB submitted data for 2011

Sustainable Growth: Growth of Export of Goods and Services per Capita 24 Source: World Bank

25 Source: World Bank Year: 2010 Sustainable Growth: Growth of Export of Goods and Services per Capita

26 Sources: World Bank (both for the export data and the population data) and SEE economies Year: 2010

Overall Strategic Targets: a)Increase of GDP per capita expressed in PPP relative to the EU b)Growth of total trade of goods and services c)Reduction of trade deficit Integrated Growth a)Growth of intra-regional trade in goods and services b)Growth of overall FDI inflows Smart Growth a)Growth of GDP per person employed An initial set of target indicators 27 Sustainable Growth a)Growth of enterprise creation b)Growth of export of goods and services per capita Inclusive Growth a)Growth of overall employment rate b)Increase of rate of population with tertiary education Governance for Growth a)Increase government effectiveness

Inclusive Growth: Growth of overall employment rate EU2020 target: an increase of employment in the category year olds 70.3% to 75% in % Sources: World Bank; data for Kosovo* found from statistical office

Inclusive Growth: Growth of overall employment rate EU2020 target: an increase of employment in the category year olds 70.3% to 75% in Sources: World Bank (National statistics office for Kosovo*) and SEE economies Year: 2008; ALB submitted 2009; HRV, MKD, MNE, and SRB submitted 2010 data

Inclusive Growth: Increase of rate of population with tertiary education attainment 30 Source: Eurostat Note: SEE average contains HRV, MKD, ROU, BLG EU2020 target 36%

Inclusive Growth: Increase of rate of population with tertiary education attainment 31 Sources: Eurostat (Proportion of the population aged 30 to 34 having tertiary educational attainment) and SEE economies Economies data (proportion of population 15+) Year: 2011; MNE submitted data for 2008; MKD and HRV gave data for 2010; SRB submitted data for 2002 EU2020 target

Overall Strategic Targets: a)Increase of GDP per capita expressed in PPP relative to the EU b)Growth of total trade of goods and services c)Reduction of trade deficit Integrated Growth a)Growth of intra-regional trade in goods and services b)Growth of overall FDI inflows Smart Growth a)Growth of GDP per person employed An initial set of target indicators 32 Sustainable Growth a)Growth of enterprise creation b)Growth of export of goods and services per capita Inclusive Growth a)Growth of overall employment rate b)Increase of rate of population with tertiary education Governance for Growth a)Increase government effectiveness

Governance for Growth: Increase Government Effectiveness 33 Source: World Bank Year: 2010

Thank you for your attention 34