1 Addressing Critical Skills Shortages at the NWS Environmental Modeling Center S. Lord and EMC Staff OFCM Workshop 23 April 2009

2 Introduction to EMC (1) EMC Mission In response to operational requirements: Maintain –the scientific correctness and integrity of operational forecast modeling systems –modify current operational system to adapt to ever- present external changes Enhance numerical forecasts –Test and improve NCEP’s forecast model systems via Scientific upgrades Tuning Additional observations Transition and Develop operational numerical forecast models –transform & integrate Code Algorithms Techniques from research status to operational status on NCEP computers EMC

3 Introduction to EMC (2) Scope: Predict the Physical Environment “from the Sun to the Sea” NWS Operational Supercomputer, Gaithersburg, MD & Fairmont WVa Predictions driven by global observing systems and executed with complex physically-based models in real-time operations on world’s largest computers Ice Atmosphere Ocean Land

4 Introduction to EMC (3) Personnel Civil Servants Scientists & Managers – 47 Admin. Staff - 4 Contractors – 86 Visiting Scientists – 8 Total: 143

5 Required Critical Skills Data assimilation –Variational techniques and mathematical basis –Ensemble techniques –Knowledge of observations, quality control principles Forecast model development (global and regional) –Ensemble and perturbation generation techniques –Dynamics and numerical algorithms (e.g. interpolation) –Physical parameterizations –Computational efficiency Supercomputer programming experience –Experience with Massively Parallel Interface (MPI) programming; FORTRAN; UNIX scripting Product development for meteorological, oceanographic, land surface, ice, hurricanes, air quality, space weather, ecosystem for operational forecasters, commercial users, etc. Scientific management of all above areas –Provide on-demand scope and risk analysis for specialized projects –Provide on-demand supplemental personnel for emergency operational support –Rapid employee recruitments to fill new positions and replenish employees

6 Skill Shortages Scientific management –Understanding the Scientific process across all domains (meteorology, oceanography, land surface, sea ice) and applications Interaction of scientific development and resources (computing, personnel, financial) –Dealing with reports, proposals, corporate visibility and HQ requests –Writing and presenting Scientific execution –Understanding how to improve the complex numerical forecast systems Numerical methods Translation of physical principles into computational algorithms Testing and validation for operations –Computer programming Supercomputer –Parallel architectures –Compilers and performance tools Scripting Code development methodologies (e.g. diagnosing and debugging) –Translating academic experience into independent productivity on the job Shortages impact all aspects of mission –Weather  Climate –Atmosphere, Ocean, Land, Sea ice –Hurricane, waves, hydrology, air quality, etc.

7 Mission Impacts: Scientific Management Inability to articulate –Critical nature of mission to upper management –Required coordination across research and operational organizations –Requirements for transition to operations Produces –Corporate inefficiency –Resource implications –Reduction in services Results in –Reductions in progress toward improved forecast systems

8 Mission Impacts: Scientific Execution Reduced ability to –Diagnose current forecast performance problems –Develop new algorithms and techniques –Design and conduct stringent test procedures –Communicate results to colleagues through seminars, publications, discussion Produces inefficiency in –Increased training for new employees –Producing improved products –Scientific understanding –Reduction in services Results in –Reductions in progress toward improved forecast systems

9 Addressing shortages Universities do not provide sufficient practical training and experience So EMC trains all incoming personnel –Apprenticeship with more senior scientists –Takes 1-2 years before new recruit becomes fully functioning team member Visiting scientist programs can help –Unfunded at present –Recruit talented Postdocs –Provides training, practical experience and filters recruits –Costs staff time Retention can depend on employee hiring progression: Visiting Scientist  Contractor  Civil Servant But Civil Service positions are subject to managed quotas in the NWS –Ratio of CS to Contractors << 1 now –CS positions available at ~1/year

10 Recommendations Support Visiting Scientist programs across all mission areas Support availability and use of operational numerical forecast systems to scientific research community (“O2R”) Supplement permanent staff to support training of new recruits and O2R capability