1 Regional Economic Outlook Caucasus and Central Asia Middle East and Central Asia Department International Monetary Fund May 2009.

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Presentation transcript:

1 Regional Economic Outlook Caucasus and Central Asia Middle East and Central Asia Department International Monetary Fund May 2009

INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND May Southwestern Asia Armenia Azerbaijan Georgia Kazakhstan Kyrgyz Republic Tajikistan Turkmenistan Uzbekistan Oil and gas exporters Oil and gas importers Caucasus and Central Asia

INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND May Outline  World Economic Outlook  CCA Economic Outlook

INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND May World Economic Outlook: Key Messages  Financial markets remain highly stressed. Total write-downs on global assets are estimated at $4 trillion.  The world economy will contract in 2009 by around 1¼ percent before recovering gradually in Deepest post WWII recession.  Emerging economies face dramatic drops in capital inflows, demand for their exports, and commodity prices.  A third wave of the global crisis is hitting the world’s poorest.  Turning around global growth calls for concerted policy actions to stabilize financial conditions and bolster demand.

INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND May CDS Spreads for High-Grade Financials (Basis points) Systemic risks remain elevated despite forceful policy efforts. Source: Bloomberg.

INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND May Recent data show contraction may be moderating. Equities (1/1/2007=100; FTSE) Merchandise Exports (Annualized percent change) 1/ 1/ Three-month moving average.

INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND May Real GDP Growth (In percent; quarter on quarter annualized) Unemployment Rate 1/ (In percent) Across the globe, GDP is falling and unemployment is rising. 1/ Aggregated using total labor force as weights. 2/ Excludes China, India, Indonesia, Hungary, and Pakistan.

INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND May There are downside risks to the world economic outlook.  Further delays in implementing policies to stabilize financial conditions.  Deflation risks could reinforce a deeper and longer downturn.  Rising threat of corporate defaults in emerging economies.  Risks of trade and financial protectionism.  Sovereign fiscal sustainability concerns.  But, there is upside potential, hinging on bold implementation of policies.

INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND May CCA Economic Outlook: Key Messages  The region is being hit by external shocks.  Contraction in world economy, esp. Russia  Declining commodity prices  Drying-up of capital inflows  Current account positions have weakened.  Fiscal balances are worsening, and public debt is rising.  Growth will drop sharply in 2009 and recover gradually in  Inflation is falling.

INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND May The global economy is set to decline in 2009 and recover only gradually in World Advanced Economies United States Euro Area Japan Emerging and Developing Economies China India Russia Real GDP Growth (In percent)

INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND May Remittances from Russia are large, but are falling in Remittances Outflow from Russia (In billions of U.S. dollars) Remittances Inflow (In percent of GDP)

INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND May Commodity prices have dropped. Commodity Prices

INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND May Capital inflows are drying up. Private Capital Flows, Net (In percent of GDP)

INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND May Current account positions have weakened. Current Account Balance (In percent of GDP) Gross International Reserves 1/ 1/ March 2009 data includes SBA purchases of $249 million (Armenia) and $250 million (Georgia).

INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND May Fiscal balances are worsening, and public debt is low, but rising again. Fiscal Balance (In percent of GDP) Government Debt (In percent of GDP)

INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND May Growth in the region is slowing sharply... Real GDP Growth (In percent)

INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND May but could recover slowly in Real GDP Growth (Annual percentage change)

INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND May Inflationary pressures are subsiding, but food prices remain high. Average Inflation, GDP Weighted (Annual percentage change)

INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND May Measures Taken Thus Far

INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND May Risks to the Outlook  Prolonged global recession and stress in global financial markets  Rising external debt and rollover risks  Further exchange rate pressures  Credit constraints and rising nonperforming loans

INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND May In some countries, the ability to meet external debt obligations is a cause for concern. Private External Debt (In percent of GDP)

INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND May Regional currencies are under pressure.

INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND May Regional currencies are under pressure.

INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND May Regional currencies are under pressure.

INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND May Regional currencies are under pressure.

INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND May Regional currencies are under pressure.

INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND May Regional currencies are under pressure.

INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND May Credit growth is slowing down, and nonperforming loans are rising. Credit Growth (In percent, annual growth) Nonperforming Loans (In percent of total loans)

INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND May Policy Priorities  Ensure external stability.  Identify and deal with financial sector risks early on.  Exploit opportunities for fiscal stimulus.  Prepare contingency plans to deal with potential crisis.