Norges Bank 1 Executive Board meeting 24 September 2008

Norges Bank Financial incidents Bear Stearns, 17 March Roskilde Bank, 24 August Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, 7 September Merrill Lynch, 14 September Lehman Brothers, 14 September AIG, 17 September HBOS, 17 September

Norges Bank Source: Bloomberg JPMorgan Chase Citigroup CDS prices for selected banks Basis points. 2 July 2007 – 22 September 2008 Bank of America DnB NOR UBS iTraxx Europe index

Norges Bank Sources: Bloomberg and Reuters EcoWin UK Germany Effective yields on covered bonds 5-7 years average term to maturity. Percentage points 5 January 2004 – 19 September 2008 Spain Denmark Ireland Norway 1) 1) The regulation relating to covered bonds entered into force on

Norges Bank Difference between money market rates and expected key rates 1) Percentage points. 5-day moving average 2 July 2007 – 22 September 2008 Sources: Bloomberg, Thomson Reuters and Norges Bank 1) The expected key rate is measured by the Overnight Indexed Swap (OIS). For Norway, the estimates are based on key policy rate expectations in the market.

Norges Bank Equities Indices, 1 July 2007 = July 2007 – 22 September 2008 Source: Thomson Reuters US, S&P 500 Emerging markets Norway, OSEBX Europe Stoxx Japan, Topix

Norges Bank Implied volatility from equity options 1 January 2005 – 19 September 2008 Sources: Reuters EcoWin and Oslo Stock Exchange Europe Norway US

Norges Bank Global Risk Index Expected volatility between USD, EUR and JPY in per cent 1) 1 January 2005 – 22 September 2008 Source: Bloomberg 1) GRI is based on implied volatility derived from prices on 3-month currency options between EUR, USD and JPY (equally weighted)

Norges Bank Implied volatility in the Norwegian exchange market Based on 1-month currency option prices 1 January 2005 – 22 September 2007 Source: Bloomberg Volatility EURNOK Volatility USDNOK

Norges Bank 25 June September September month interest rate differential and import-weighted exchange rate (I-44) 1) January 2002 – December 2010 Weighted interest rate differential (left-hand scale) I-44 (right-hand scale) Sources: Reuters and Norges Bank 1) A rising curve denotes an appreciation of the krone.

Norges Bank Growth forecasts Consensus Forecasts GDP. Percentage change on previous year Source: Consensus Forecasts

Norges Bank Oil price (Brent Blend) in USD per barrel Futures prices (broken lines) 1) In XDR Sources: Thomson Reuters and Norges Bank (MPR 2/08) International commodity prices 1) Index. Week = 100 Week – week

Norges Bank Consumer prices abroad 12-month change. Per cent. January 2002 – August 2008 UK Euro area US Japan Sweden Source: Thomson Reuters Russia Brazil India 1) China 1) Wholesale prices

Norges Bank Sources: Thomson Reuters and Norges Bank Policy rates and estimated forward rates Per cent. 2 January 2005 – 22 September 2008 US Euro area 22 September 2008 Market after MPR 2/08 (25 June) Sweden UK

Norges Bank 15 CPI CPIXE 1) 1) CPIXE: CPI adjusted for tax changes and excluding temporary changes in energy prices Consumer prices 12-month change. Per cent. January 2002 – July 2008 Sources: Statistics Norway and Norges Bank

Norges Bank Mainland GDP – half-year figures Change from previous half year. Per cent. Annual rate Q1 – 2008 Q2 MPR 2/08 Sources: Statistics Norway and Norges Bank

Norges Bank Hourly productivity, mainland Norway 4-quarter change. 5-quarter moving average. Per cent Q1 – 2008 Q2 Average 1997 Q1 – 2008 Q2 Sources: Statistics Norway and Norges Bank

Norges Bank 18 Fixed investment in oil extraction and pipeline transport NOK billion. Seasonally adjusted figures Q1 – 2008 Q2 Source: Statistics Norway

Norges Bank Capacity 1) Labour 2) Source: Norges Bank Norges Bank's regional network: capacity constraints Per cent. January 2005 – August ) Share reporting that they would have some or considerable difficulty in accommodating an increase in demand. 2) Share who respond that the supply of labour will be a limiting factor for output/turnover.

Norges Bank Expected change in selling prices over the next 12 months. Diffusion index¹ ) 1) Share reporting higher prices + (0.5 * share reporting unchanged prices) Retail trade and services to the household sector Manufacturing, building and construction and corporate services Source: Norges Bank

Norges Bank Retail trade components January 2004 = 100. Volume. Seasonally adjusted. January 2004 – July 2008 Other goods Food, beverages and tobacco Sale of motor vehicles and automotive fuel Electricity and fuel Total Sources: Statistics Norway and Norges Bank

Norges Bank Unemployed Percentage of labour force. Seasonally adjusted. January 1998 – August 2008 Registered unemployed and on labour market programmes LFS unemployment Registered unemployed Sources: Statistics Norway, Norwegian Labour and Welfare Administration (NAV) and Norges Bank

Norges Bank Employment Figures from LFS and QNA persons Monthly and quarterly figures. February 1998 – June 2008 LFS QNA Source: Statistics Norway

Norges Bank Labour migration In thousands. January 2006 – August 2008 Registered foreign employees from new EEA countries (SSU) Registered work permits (UDI) Sources: Central Office – Foreign Tax Affairs (SSU), Norwegian Directorate of Immigration (UDI) and Norges Bank Registered work permits – new EEA countries (UDI)

Norges Bank Sources: Central Office – Foreign Tax Affairs (SSU), Norwegian Directorate of Immigration (UDI) and Norges Bank Labour migration 12-month change. January 2007 – August 2008 Registered foreign employees from new EEA countries (SSU) Registered work permits (UDI) Registered work permits – new EEA countries (UDI)

Norges Bank Housing investment and order reserves housing construction 2000 Q1 – 2008 Q2 1) Measured at constant 2005-prices, mill. NOK. Seasonally adjusted 2) Deflated by the building construction index Housing investment 1), (left-hand scale) Order reserves housing construction (volume 2) ), (right-hand scale) Sources: Statistics Norway and Norges Bank

Norges Bank Building starts In 1000 m 2. Trend. January 2002 – July 2008 Other buildings Dwellings Source: Statistics Norway

Norges Bank Property prices and credit Growth from same month/half-year previous year. Per cent. Households House prices Credit Enterprises Commercial property prices Credit Sources: Norwegian Association of Real Estate Agents, Association of Real Estate Agency Firms, Finn.no, ECON Pöyry, Statistics Norway and Norges Bank

Norges Bank Sources: Bloomberg, Thomson Reuters, DnB NOR Markets and Norges Bank Bank bonds Long-term financing Indicative credit spreads for Norwegian bonds. 5 years to maturity. Difference to swap rates. Percentage points. Weekly figures. 2 July 2007 – 17 Sep Covered bonds 12-month rate 3-month rate Short-term financing Difference between money market rates and expected key policy rate in Norway. Percentage points. 5-day moving average. 2 July 2007 – 17 Sep More expensive financing

Norges Bank 30 Key policy rate, money market rate 1) and banks’ lending rate on new loans 2) Per cent. 1 July 2007 – 22 September 2008 Sources: Norsk familieøkonomi AS and Norges Bank Mortgage rate Money market rate Key policy rate 1) 3-month NIBOR. 2) Interest rates on new mortgage loans of NOK 1 million within 60% of purchase price with floating interest rate. Figures for the 20 largest banks, weighted according to market share.

Norges Bank Key policy rate in the baseline scenario and estimated forward rates Per cent Q4 – 2010 Q4 Sources: Thomson Reuters and Norges Bank Market 22 September 2008 Market after publication of MPR 2/08 (25 June) Baseline scenario MPR 2/08

Norges Bank 32 Key policy rate Source: Norges Bank Strategy interval 1/05 3/04 2/05 3/05 1/06 2/06 3/06 2/07 1/07 3/07 MPR 2/08 1/08 2/08