1 Click to edit Master subtitle style Thinking about Navy Medicine’s Future CAPT (Sel) Robert S. Fry, Ph.D. Assistant Deputy Chief, Future Operations, BUMED M5B

“The Best Way to Predict the Future is to Create it.” Abraham Lincoln “Working from the Future to the Present” 2

3 Tomorrow We Don’t know what we Know We Don’t Know what we Don’t Know We Know what we Know Unaware Aware We Know what we Don’t Know Strategic Planning Futures Known Unknown

4 Scenario Planning Perspective Crisis Management Timeframe Short Term Emerging Issues Management Strategic Planning Medium TermLong Term Contingency Planning Present to Future Future to Present

Services’ Futures Perspective  Focused on the “future trend”, year 2039 of 14 healthcare “topics” rather than “plausible” scenarios of healthcare in the future  Teams performed an environmental scan & trend analysis of 6 healthcare topics  Teams developed recommendations to establish future capabilities now rather than later  Participants identified and prioritized AFMS year 2045 potential drivers  Critical drivers were reduced to six critical drivers  17 plausible scenarios were created from six critical drivers and reduced to 8 scenarios Army Medical Department (AMEDD) Air Force Medical Service (AFMS)  Participants defined the Future Landscape for China, Europe, United States, and DoD’s role in 2030  3 key issues were identified (Joint Medicine, Virtually Connected Health Service System and Research, Development & Technology) and considerations for each Navy Medicine (BUMED) Opportunity for Alignment 5

6 Proactively Managing Emerging Issues Start Here Managed Potential Stage Emerging Stage Visible Stage Crisis Stage Dormant Stage Don’t Start Here (Crisis) Issue Life Cycle Time (x) Effort Level

7 Emerging Issues Management  What is it? – Allows organizations to identify and track emerging trends likely to affect an organization in the next few years  Why do it? – Allows an organization to proactively anticipate emerging issues rather than reacting after the fact – Increases the options to positively impact the issues – Identifies potential options to respond proactively and reactively  When to use? – The environment is not very predictable but issues start to emerge over the horizon – The cost / benefit trade-off favors pro-activity vs. mitigation – The Organization has the ability to influence the emerging issue through existing and new channels

8 The Approach Mission Navy Medicine’s Futures Process Design (Macro) Navy Medicine’s Futures Process Design (Micros) Metrics Development Tools Development Skills Identification Outputs Socialization Process Management (Fundamental Discipline) Alignment with CNO’s Futures Process Process Design Principles DRAFT

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