CAP IN SOUTH AFRICAN WEATHER SERVICE Presenter Miss Sisanda Hanise

INTRODUCTION The South African Weather Service (SAWS) is the authoritative voice on weather and climate related issues in South Africa and the custodian of the South African climate databank. In addition, by law, only SAWS may issue severe weather warnings. In this regard, SAWS has played an integral role in assisting the South African government to minimize the impact of weather related natural disasters and improve the well being of its people. As a member of the World Meteorological Organisation (WMO) it complies with international meteorological standards.

CAP AT SAWS SAWS is in the phase of implementing a Warning Generator based on the CAP standards. The Warning Generator system will produce warnings and alerts that will be sent in plain SMS, Email and CAP standard format. The messages will be sent to the SAWS webpage, general public and disaster managers. The National Disaster Warning Center is in the process of developing a multi-hazard warning webpage that will also receive CAP messages from SAWS. The following are the alerts and warnings that SAWS is focusing on at the moment.

CAP AT SAWS Alerts Description Extremely hot conditions Maximum temperature forecast 40C and above Very cold conditions Maximum temperatures 10C and below and/or Minimum -10C below High discomfort values Discomfort Index (D.I.), meeting or exceeding 38C (or 100 F) Heat wave 3 consecutive days with maximum temperature to be more or equal to 5C higher than the average maximum of the hottest month for the particular station in the FPG region/s Gale force winds and stronger Average wind speed of more than 34knots (62 km/h) or gusts in excess of 44knots for land based regions Veldt Fire Danger Rating If the fire danger rating is high according to the NFDRS work instruction Heavy rain 50 mm or more within 24 hours

CAP AT SAWS (Cont…) Alerts Description Flash Flood Flash flood as defined by SAFFG work instruction Warning : Within three hours from time of forecast Watch : 3 to 6 hours from time of forecast Advisory : Beyond 6 hours from the time of forecast Snow Sufficient snow to cause disruptions in passes and /or populated areas Severe thunderstorms Severe Thunderstorm with one or any combination of the following Hail of greater than 19mm diameter or large amounts of small hail Tornadoes (any), Wind gusts 50kts or more, in association with a thunderstorm Destructive coastal waves Abnormally high coastal waves associated with a combination of Spring high tides and a heavy swell or total sea of 7m or more where the waves are expected to cause significant coastal damage.

CAP AT SAWS (Cont…) Warnings Description Storm which exhibits both: Large Hail Storm which exhibits both: High reflectivity core (≥ 55 dBz) at -20⁰ C level or higher Strong updrafts (indicated by presence of echo overhang and Weak Echo Region [WER] or Bounded Weak Echo Region [BWER]) Large amounts of small Hail (Cool Season: May to August) High reflectivity core (≥ 50 dBz) at -20⁰C level or higher Damaging Winds Storm is diagnosed to be a supercell Individual storm or squall line exhibits a bow echo or rear-inflow-notch Strong, fast-moving storm or squall line (reflectivity ≥ 50 dBz, storm speed ≥ 50 km/h) Localized Flooding Storm is strong (≥ 50 dBz) and slow-moving ( ≤ 20 km/h) In tropical airmasses (mid to late summer) with precipitable water ≥ 25mm: Storm is moderately strong (≥ 40 dBz) and slow-moving ( ≤ 20 km/h) .

CAP AT SAWS Standard Working Instructions for forecasters for the issuance of severe weather warnings have been developed standardizing on CAP related information This information is incorporated in the SAWS Warning Generator system under development

SAWS Warning Generator System SUMO Visualize Forecaster Data. GUI selection of warning areas Forecaster Database Climate CAP EMAIL SMS Recipient Distribution System Email The Warning Generator will automatically update warning/alert to the website

Example of CAP message generated <?xml version = "1.0" encoding = "UTF-8"?> <alert xmlns = "urn:oasis:names:tc:emergency:cap:1.1"> <identifier> 20110401SAWSPE001</identifier> <sender>fape@weathersa.co.za</sender> <sent>2011-04-01T14:57:00-07:00</sent> <status>Actual</status> <msgType>Alert</msgType> <scope>Public</scope> <info> <category>Met</category> <event>SEVERE THUNDERSTORM</event> <urgency>Immediate</urgency> <severity>Severe</severity> <certainty>Observed</certainty> <expires>2011-04-02T16:00:00-07:00</expires> <senderName>SAWS PE</senderName> <headline>Severe Thunderstorms, associated with damaging hail and/or/strong windsare POSSIBLE over PE</headline> <area> <areaDesc>Coastal belt Cannon Rocks to Kei River Mouth</areaDesc> </area> <areaDesc>Buffalo City</areaDesc> <areaDesc>Great Kei</areaDesc> <areaDesc>akana</areaDesc> </info> </alert>

Conclusion In the near future, SAWS will be developing Aviation and Marine weather related messages. SAWS is also looking at ways to incorporate these CAP messages into WMO Information System(WIS). SAWS (being the Pretoria RSMC) is currently investigating how to use CAP Standards in SADC in the Severe Weather Forecasting Demonstration Project (SWFDP).

SAWS Warning Generator Demonstration!!! The End SAWS Warning Generator Demonstration!!!