MONITORING SOCIAL DEVELOPMENTS IN INDONESIA KECUK SUHARIYANTO Director of Statistical Analysis and Development BPS-STATISTICS INDONESIA BPS-STATISTICS INDONESIA INTERNATIONAL FORUM ON MONITORING NATIONAL DEVELOPMENT: ISSUES AND CHALLENGES, Beijing, People’s Republic of China, 27 to 29 September, 2011

INDONESIA PROFILE K EY S TATISTICS Administrative Area33 provinces, 497 districts Population 2010 (millions)237,6 Population Growth Rate (%)1,49 Economic Growth Semester (%)6,5 GDP per capita 2010 (US$)3005 Unemployment Rate Feb 2011 (%)6,80 Poverty Rate March 2011 (%)12,49 Income Inequality (Gini Ratio) 20100,38 HDI (new method)0,60 (ranked 108)

DEVELOPMENT STRATEGY IN INDONESIA STRATEGY TYPE OF DATA PERIODICIT Y TIME LAG PRO- GROWTH GDPQuarterly35 days Business and Consumer Confidence Indices (BCCI) Quarterly35 days InflationMonthly 1 st day of the following month. Foreign Trade (Export- Import) MonthlyOne month Manufacturing Production Index Quarterly30 days PRO-JOBUnemployment rateSemesterThree months PRO POOR Poverty RateAnnuallyThree months

UNEMPLOYMENT DATA: Unemployment Rate and Development Target PROBLEMS:  Unemployment Rate: 6,80%  66% work in informal sector  49,5% elementary school  30,7% under employed Source of Data: National Labor Force Survey (Sakernas), conducted every Feb and August, number of sampel 68,000 HH MTDP: Medium Term Development Plan

Scatter Plot between RGDP and Unemplyment Rate (UR) by Districts 2010 RGDP per capita 2010 Unemployment Rate 2010 INDICATION: High RGDP, high UR High RGDP, low UR Low RGDP, high UR Low RGDP, low UR

POVERTY DATA MACRO POVERTY DATA (since 1976, released 1July) MICRO POVERTY DATA (2005, 2008, 2011) 1.Methodology:  Concept: Basic Needs Approach  Food Poverty Line (2100 kkal per cap per day) + Non Food Pov Line 1.Methodology:  Qualitatitve Approach (characteristics of poor hoouseholds) 2.Data Source: National Socioeconomic Survey (Susenas), 68,000 HH 2.Data Source: Census 3.The data show ESTIMATION of number and percentage of POOR PEOPLE (national, province, districts) 3.The data show number of targetting HOUSEHOLD (POOR + NEAR POOR) - by name by address 4.Usage:  Basis data for planning and evaluation of poverty alleviation programs (geograpic) 4.Usage:  To implement poverty alleviation programs: Unconditional cash transfer, Subsidized rice, Health security for the poor, Conditional cash transfer, etc.

MACRO POVERTY DATA: PROBLEMS:  Poverty disparities across region  63% of the poor live in rural area  58% of the poor work in agriculture  Many households are clustered around poverty line Source of Data: National Socioeconomic Survey (Susenas), conducted every March, number of sampel 68,000 HH Poverty Rate and Development Target

EXAMPLE OF POVERTY MAP

Year 2009 Total Poor Near Poor Not Poor Year 2008 Poor Near Poor Not Poor Many people easily move out from poverty and move in to poverty (TRANSIENT POVERTY) Between 2008 and 2009: 53,29% poor people move out from poverty. On the other hand, 27,69% move in to poverty.

10 MICRO POVERTY DATA: Source of Data: Census (2005, 2008, 2011) Targetting Household (HH) 2005 (PSE 05)2008 (PPLS 2008) 000 HH% % Very Poor3.894,320,42.989,917,1 Poor8.237,043,16.828,839,1 NEAR POOR6.969,636,57.665,343,8 TOTAL19.100,9100, ,0100,0 Poverty Alleviation Program in Indonesia

Poverty decreases but income inequality tends to increase.... Gini Ratio Poor People (%) TREND OF POVERTY AND GINI RATIO

HDI Indonesia, HUMAN DEVELOPMENT INDEX (HDI) DATA: Source of Data: National Socioeconomic Survey (Susenas) and Regional GDP, calculated annualy, districts level The usage of HDI: one of the General Allocation Fund allocators Life Expectancy By Province, 2009

IV I II III SCATTER PLOT BETWEEN RGDP AND HDI BY DISTRICTS 2010 Regional GDP Human Development Index

PLANS AND PRIORITIES FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT (1) ISSUESSOURCE OF DATA/SURVEY PREVIOUSFURTHER DEVELOPMENT 1. POVERTYa.Macro Data: National Socioeconomi c Survey (Susenas) Before 2011: Annual Survey, number of sample 68,000 HH- 280,000 HH  Start 2011: quarterly (75,000 HH per quarter).  Methodology improvement b.Micro Data: Poverty Census Methodology: scoring, proxi means test (PMT) Methodology: Povtar (Poverty Targetting) → Pop Census & Susenas 2.UNEM- PLOYMENT National Labor Force Survey (Sakernas) Before 2011: conducted every Feb and August, number of sample 68,000 HH Start 2011: quarterly (75,000 HH per quarter)

PLANS AND PRIORITIES FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT (2) ISSUESSOURCE OF DATA/NAME OF SURVEY PREVIOUSFURTHER DEVELOPMENT 3.HDI NEW METHOD National Socioeconomic Survey (Susenas) & GDP Methodology: Old Method (Life expectancy at birth, Adult literacy rate, MYS, Consumption per capita, Arithmetic Mean) Methodology: New Method (Life expectancy at birth, Expected years of schooling, MYS, Consumption per capita, Geometric Mean) 4.SOCIAL PROTECTIO N INDEX Socioeconomic Survey (Susenas)  Social Insurance Programs Included: Pensions, health insurance, insurance claimed  Social Assistance Programs Included: Unconditional cash transfer, subsidized rice, health insurance for the poor, poverty card, scholarship Pilot survey to include more variables

CHALLANGES 1. Poverty and HDI: a. The results obtained from new methodology will not be comparable with the previous results  need to do back-casting b. The results using new method may change significantly compared to the results obtained from current methodology. It may create long debate  need to socialize intensively the new poverty and HDI methods to data users. 2. Social Protection Index: a. The term of social protection is very broad. It is difficult to obtain the data because there is no centralized source for the required information. The information available from published reports is limited. b. Need socialization of the concept and definition of SP → all stakeholders have to have the same perception of SP.

THANK YOU Terima Kasih