1. MONITORING SOCIAL DEVELOPMENTS IN INDONESIA
BPS-STATISTICS INDONESIA
MONITORING SOCIAL DEVELOPMENTS IN INDONESIA
INTERNATIONAL FORUM ON MONITORING NATIONAL DEVELOPMENT: ISSUES AND CHALLENGES,
Beijing, People’s Republic of China, 27 to 29 September, 2011
KECUK SUHARIYANTO
Director of Statistical Analysis and Development
BPS-STATISTICS INDONESIA

2. INDONESIA PROFILE Key Statistics Administrative Area
33 provinces, 497 districts
Population 2010 (millions)
237,6
Population Growth Rate (%)
1,49
Economic Growth Semester (%)
6,5
GDP per capita 2010 (US$)
3005
Unemployment Rate Feb 2011 (%)
6,80
Poverty Rate March 2011 (%)
12,49
Income Inequality (Gini Ratio) 2010
0,38
HDI (new method)
0,60 (ranked 108)

3. DEVELOPMENT STRATEGY IN INDONESIA
TYPE OF DATA
PERIODICIT Y
TIME LAG
PRO-GROWTH
GDP
Quarterly
35 days
Business and Consumer Confidence Indices (BCCI)
Inflation
Monthly
1st day of the following month.
Foreign Trade (Export- Import)
One month
Manufacturing Production Index
30 days
PRO-JOB
Unemployment rate
Semester
Three months
PRO POOR
Poverty Rate
Annually

4. UNEMPLOYMENT DATA:
Source of Data: National Labor Force Survey (Sakernas), conducted every Feb and August, number of sampel 68,000 HH
Unemployment Rate and Development Target
MTDP: Medium Term Development Plan
PROBLEMS:
Unemployment Rate: 6,80%
66% work in informal sector
49,5% elementary school
30,7% under employed

5. Scatter Plot between RGDP and Unemplyment Rate (UR) by Districts 2010
Unemployment Rate 2010
INDICATION:
High RGDP, high UR
High RGDP, low UR
Low RGDP, high UR
Low RGDP, low UR
RGDP per capita 2010

6. POVERTY DATA MACRO POVERTY DATA (since 1976, released 1July)
MICRO POVERTY DATA
(2005, 2008, 2011)
Methodology:
Concept: Basic Needs Approach
Food Poverty Line (2100 kkal per cap per day) + Non Food Pov Line
Qualitatitve Approach (characteristics of poor hoouseholds)
Data Source: National Socioeconomic Survey (Susenas), 68,000 HH
Data Source: Census
The data show ESTIMATION of number and percentage of POOR PEOPLE (national, province, districts)
The data show number of targetting HOUSEHOLD (POOR + NEAR POOR) - by name by address
Usage:
Basis data for planning and evaluation of poverty alleviation programs (geograpic)
To implement poverty alleviation programs: Unconditional cash transfer, Subsidized rice, Health security for the poor, Conditional cash transfer, etc.

7. MACRO POVERTY DATA:
Source of Data: National Socioeconomic Survey (Susenas), conducted every March, number of sampel 68,000 HH
Poverty Rate and Development Target
PROBLEMS:
Poverty disparities across region
63% of the poor live in rural area
58% of the poor work in agriculture
Many households are clustered around poverty line

8. EXAMPLE OF POVERTY MAP

9. .. Many people easily move out from poverty and move in to poverty (TRANSIENT POVERTY)
Year 2009
Total
Poor
Near Poor
Not Poor
Year 2008
46.71
20.28
33.01
100
22.32
21.53
56.15
5.37
7.65
86.98
Between 2008 and 2009: 53,29% poor people move out from poverty. On the other hand, 27,69% move in to poverty.

10. MICRO POVERTY DATA: Source of Data: Census (2005, 2008, 2011)
Targetting Household (HH)
2005 (PSE 05)
2008 (PPLS 2008)
000 HH %
Very Poor
3.894,3
20,4
2.989,9
17,1
Poor
8.237,0
43,1
6.828,8
39,1
NEAR POOR
6.969,6
36,5
7.665,3
43,8
TOTAL
19.100,9
100,0
17.484,0
Poverty Alleviation Program in Indonesia

11. Poverty decreases but income inequality tends to increase ....
TREND OF POVERTY AND GINI RATIO
Gini Ratio
Poor People (%)
Poverty decreases but income inequality tends to increase ....

12. HUMAN DEVELOPMENT INDEX (HDI) DATA:
Source of Data: National Socioeconomic Survey (Susenas) and Regional GDP, calculated annualy, districts level
The usage of HDI: one of the General Allocation Fund allocators
HDI Indonesia,
Life Expectancy By Province, 2009

13. SCATTER PLOT BETWEEN RGDP AND HDI BY DISTRICTS 2010II I
Human Development Index
III IV
Regional GDP

14. PLANS AND PRIORITIES FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT (1)
ISSUES
SOURCE OF DATA/SURVEY
PREVIOUS
FURTHER DEVELOPMENT
1. POVERTY
Macro Data: National Socioeconomic Survey (Susenas)
Before 2011: Annual Survey, number of sample 68,000 HH-280,000 HH
Start 2011: quarterly (75,000 HH per quarter).
Methodology improvement
Micro Data: Poverty Census
Methodology: scoring, proxi means test (PMT)
Methodology: Povtar (Poverty Targetting) → Pop Census & Susenas
UNEM-PLOYMENT
National Labor Force Survey (Sakernas)
Before 2011: conducted every Feb and August, number of sample 68,000 HH
Start 2011: quarterly (75,000 HH per quarter)

15. PLANS AND PRIORITIES FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT (2)
ISSUES
SOURCE OF DATA/NAME OF SURVEY
PREVIOUS
FURTHER DEVELOPMENT
HDI NEW METHOD
National Socioeconomic Survey (Susenas) & GDP
Methodology: Old Method (Life expectancy at birth, Adult literacy rate, MYS, Consumption per capita, Arithmetic Mean)
Methodology: New Method (Life expectancy at birth, Expected years of schooling, MYS, Consumption per capita, Geometric Mean)
SOCIAL PROTECTION INDEX
Socioeconomic Survey (Susenas)
Social Insurance Programs Included: Pensions, health insurance, insurance claimed
Social Assistance Programs Included: Unconditional cash transfer, subsidized rice, health insurance for the poor, poverty card, scholarship
Pilot survey to include more variables

16. CHALLANGES Poverty and HDI:
The results obtained from new methodology will not be comparable with the previous results  need to do back-casting
The results using new method may change significantly compared to the results obtained from current methodology. It may create long debate  need to socialize intensively the new poverty and HDI methods to data users.
Social Protection Index:
The term of social protection is very broad. It is difficult to obtain the data because there is no centralized source for the required information. The information available from published reports is limited.
Need socialization of the concept and definition of SP → all stakeholders have to have the same perception of SP.

17. THANK YOU Terima Kasih