Public Opinion Political Science I

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Copyright © Texas Education Agency All rights reserved. Images and other multimedia content used with permission. What is public opinion? 3

Copyright © Texas Education Agency All rights reserved. Images and other multimedia content used with permission. Public Opinion The opinion or attitude of a significant group of people about a matter concerning public affairs “Public affairs include politics, public issues, and the making of public policies—those events and issues that concern the people at large” (McClenaghan, 2009) Examples: political parties and candidates, taxes, unemployment, foreign policy, etc. 4

Copyright © Texas Education Agency All rights reserved. Images and other multimedia content used with permission. Public Opinion (continued) The “public” refers to a significant group of people that share a view of a particular issue that effects the people as a whole; there are many different publics and many different public opinions Some general characteristics of public opinions They are difficult to measure They are learned They change They influence government decisions They can overlap or conflict 5

Copyright © Texas Education Agency All rights reserved. Images and other multimedia content used with permission. Public Opinion (continued) How opinions differ Opinion saliency – some people care more about certain issues Opinion stability – opinions on some issues are relatively steady, but can be more volatile on others Opinion-policy congruence – public opinion and public policy are in sync for some issues and out of sync for others 6

Copyright © Texas Education Agency All rights reserved. Images and other multimedia content used with permission. How is public opinion influenced? 7

Copyright © Texas Education Agency All rights reserved. Images and other multimedia content used with permission. Influences on Public Opinion Political socialization Political efficacy Mass media Peer groups Opinion leaders Historic events 8

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Copyright © Texas Education Agency All rights reserved. Images and other multimedia content used with permission. Public Opinion Polls Public opinion polls – “devices that attempt to collect information by asking people questions” (McClenaghan, 2009) Straw votes Involve asking the same question to a large group of people Are highly unreliable Do not ensure a reasonable cross-section of the entire population 10

Copyright © Texas Education Agency All rights reserved. Images and other multimedia content used with permission. Public Opinion Polls (continued) Scientific polling Began in the mid-1930s Has become highly sophisticated Is performed by commercial polling organizations, of which two of the best known are Gallup Organization (the Gallup Poll) Pew Research Center for People and the Press 11

Copyright © Texas Education Agency All rights reserved. Images and other multimedia content used with permission. Public Opinion Polls (continued) Scientific polling (continued) A number of the leading national polls are joint efforts of major news-gathering and professional polling organizations They report public attitudes on current issues (i.e. support of the President or Congress) Is extremely complex but can be described in five basic steps 12

Copyright © Texas Education Agency All rights reserved. Images and other multimedia content used with permission. Basic Steps of Scientific Polling Define the universe to be surveyed Universe – entire population that the poll aims to measure Example: every high school student in Texas Construct a sample Most pollsters draw random samples Sample – a representative portion of the total universe Random sample – composed of randomly selected people so that all of the members have an equal chance of being interviewed Most major national polls use samples with approximately 1,500 people to represent the nation’s adult population (over 200 million people) The mathematical law of probability makes a sample an accurate representation as long as the sample selected is A sufficient size and Properly selected at random from the entire universe 13

Copyright © Texas Education Agency All rights reserved. Images and other multimedia content used with permission. Basic Steps of Scientific Polling (continued) Prepare valid questions The wording of questions is critical to the reliability of the poll Responsible pollsters avoid Questions that are emotionally “loaded” Questions that lead the participants to the desired answer Terms that are difficult to understand 14

Copyright © Texas Education Agency All rights reserved. Images and other multimedia content used with permission. Basic Steps of Scientific Polling (continued) Select and control how the poll is taken A pollster’s method of communication can affect the poll’s accuracy Face-to-face Telephone calls Is the most common method Utilizes random-digit dialing Mail An interviewer’s tone of voice and/or word emphasis can affect the participants’ responses and a poll’s validity Polling organizations try to hire and train their interviewing staff very carefully 15

Copyright © Texas Education Agency All rights reserved. Images and other multimedia content used with permission. Basic Steps of Scientific Polling (continued) Analyze and report the findings to the public Polls measure people’s attitudes Scientific polling organizations Collect huge amounts of raw data Use technologies to Calculate and interpret their data Draw conclusions Publish findings 16

Copyright © Texas Education Agency All rights reserved. Images and other multimedia content used with permission. Evaluating Polls Weaknesses Pollsters acknowledge their difficulties measuring Intensity – the strength of the feeling with which an opinion is held Stability (or fluidity) – the relative permanence of an opinion Relevance (or pertinence) – how important a particular opinion is to the person who holds it Critics say that pollsters shape the opinions they are supposed to measure 17

Copyright © Texas Education Agency All rights reserved. Images and other multimedia content used with permission. Evaluating Polls (continued) Strengths Scientific polls are the most useful tools for measuring public opinion They are not precise, but they are reliable They help specify questions and stimulate discussion of them 18

Copyright © Texas Education Agency All rights reserved. Images and other multimedia content used with permission. Other Polling Methods Other methods are unreliable but may be used to find key indicators Elections Are rarely an accurate measure of public opinion Are occasionally useful indicators of public opinion Personal Contacts Are a resource that public figures use to try and gauge public opinion Some public officials can do this successfully, but many are biased and only see what they want to see 19

Copyright © Texas Education Agency All rights reserved. Images and other multimedia content used with permission. Other Polling Methods (continued) Interest Groups Are private organizations that work to shape public policy to their objectives (i.e. pressure groups or special interest groups) Provide a primary method to make a public opinion heard Apply pressure through Lobbyists Letters Telephone calls s Political campaigns Other methods 20

Copyright © Texas Education Agency All rights reserved. Images and other multimedia content used with permission. How does public opinion affect public policy? 21

Copyright © Texas Education Agency All rights reserved. Images and other multimedia content used with permission. Effects on Public Policy Public opinion has a powerful role in US politics Framers of the Constitution wanted to create a representative democracy that would Give the people an active voice in government (popular rule) Insulate the government from the whims of an ill- informed public 22

Copyright © Texas Education Agency All rights reserved. Images and other multimedia content used with permission. Effects on Public Policy (continued) The following aspects of our constitutional government protect the minority interests from the majority views and actions Separation of powers Checks and balances Civil rights and liberties 23

Copyright © Texas Education Agency All rights reserved. Images and other multimedia content used with permission. Effects on Public Policy (continued) Public opinion is one influence on public policy, along with Interest groups Political parties Mass media Other institutions of government Ideas of activists and public officials 24

Copyright © Texas Education Agency All rights reserved. Images and other multimedia content used with permission. Resources McClenaghan, W. A. (2009). Magruder's American Government, Pearson. Glencoe McGraw-Hill (2009), United States Government: Democracy in Action, Glencoe McGraw-Hill. Wilson, J. Q., Dilulio Jr., J. J., and Bose, M. (2011). American Government Institutions and Policies, Wadsworth Cengage Learning. 25