1 Bridging long-term scenario and strategy analysis: current practice and future directions in environmental policy The 3rd International Seville Conference on Future-Oriented Technology Analysis (FTA): Impacts and implications for policy and decision making Axel Volkery Scenarios and Forward Studies Group

2 The European Environment Agency A specialised European Agency based in Copenhagen 32 member countries Mission is to provide timely, targeted, relevant and reliable information on the state and prospects of Europes environment

3 BLOSSOM project BLOSSOM = Bridging LOng-term Scenario and Strategy analysis – Organisation and Methods Take stock of existing practice Analyse institutional approaches Review methodological approaches Foster information exchange and learning First phase run in 2008 as a scoping activity together with RAND Europe

4 Direct and indirect forms of scenario based decision-support… IndirectDirect Stimulating wider debate about possible futures Getting stakeholder buy-in or engagement Triggering cultural change within the organisation Clarifying an issues importance and framing a decision-making agenda Generating options for future action Appraising robustness of options for future action

5...across the cycle of policy-making More indirect forms More direct forms

6 Estimating the outcomes/impacts of scenarios in public policy making Source: draft AoA, UNEP/UNESCO, adapted from Eckley 2001 Influences from scenarios/foresight exercises may take considerable time to become evident (see Mitchell et al for a similar assessment of the influence of Global Environmental Assessments)

7 Literature review 54 suitable pieces were identified The evaluative literature remains nascent - major gaps identified: Factors that influence the effectiveness and efficiency of uptake of scenarios / other foresight tools Failure of related exercises SWOT for institutional arrangements Case studies beyond the world of business

8 Workshop participants survey

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10 Workshop participants survey

11 Bridging scenario and strategy analysis Source: adapted from van der Heijden (2004), Barre (2007) One-off / ad-hoc (more product- oriented) Ongoing / permanent (more process- oriented) Thinking (broadening/ opening up) Making senseAnticipation Acting (closing) Optimal strategyAdaptive learning

12 Barriers Particular challenges Heterogenous nature of objectives and interests faced by governmental agencies Weak institutionalisation, silo mentality, unclear benefits Different time horizons, but also different attention foci of policy-makers and analysts Contradictions between process and product functions Contradictions between deliberative and representative democracy

13 Key topics User and stakeholder participation Making knowledge useful Linking strategic planning to the policy cycle / timing Skills and capacity Accountability and incentives Organisational choices

14 Clustering approaches OngoingAd-hoc Cross- sector ExternalUK-Foresight Horizon Scanning Centre FISTERA Numerous long-term strategic analysis studies InternalUK-Foresight Horizon Scanning Centre Finland Futures Centre Centre danalyse stratégique, France Swedish inter-ministerial foresight network Sector- based ExternalUK Climate Impacts ProgrammeTyndall Centre, UK InternalDepartmental Strategy units (e.g. NL Dept of Agriculture) UK Meteorological Office IPCC RMNO (NL) Source: EEA forthcoming

15 Some options to consider Virtual network or physical location? Interdep. steering groups or not? Centralised or decentralised? Government funded or contribution based? Temporary or permanent? Formalised inputs or space for discussion? In-built or outsourced expertise? Expert-led or stakeholder-driven? Issue-based network or think tank with own agenda?

16 Outlook on EEA activities Technical report available soon in 2009: review and compare practice in greater depth across EEA member countries More systemic comparison of advantages / disadvantages of approaches Build toolbox matrix Better understanding how to evaluate impacts and effectivness Networking - your cooperation is highly welcome...

17 Thank you Dr. Axel Volkery European Environment Agency Kongens Nytorv 6 DK – 1050 Copenhagen K