Developing the SEIS-Forward System in support of environmental assessments Forward looking information and scenarios EIONET meeting Prague Sept 2009 Owen White Collingwood Environmental Planning (CEP) /

Developing the SEIS-Forward System in support of environmental assessments Project has 4 objectives: Support the EEA in publishing overview of forward-looking studies Compile a catalogue of scenarios and develop criteria for scenario analysis and quality assessment Provide quality assessment of forward-looking indicators Identify European megatrends

Developing the SEIS-Forward System in support of environmental assessments Compile a catalogue of scenarios and develop criteria for scenario analysis and quality assessment Provide quality assessment of forward-looking indicators Compilation of forward looking studies / scenarios Factsheet completed for each scenario Development of criteria to assess scenarios Assessment of scenarios and catalogue QA assessment of indicators not already evaluated Identification of gaps in indicator coverage

Elements of scenarios 1. Description of initial situation / baseline 2. Drivers for change / driving forces 3. Description of changes (time steps) 4. Description of future situation (based on 1,2 and 3) Generally scenarios are developed in sets Scenarios are not meant to be accurate but help users understand / gain insight into future developments – they inform rather than lead

Forward looking scenario factsheets Factsheets have been completed for 72 scenario studies in total: 12: Ecosystems 14: Climate Change Adaptation 18: EECCA (E. Europe, Caucasus and C. Asia) 20: Pan- European and global 8: SE Europe

Example of forward looking scenario factsheet (partial) text

Scenario QA criteria - discussion Many factors (e.g. theme, scale) not suitable for value judgements Information available does not allow full or robust evaluation of quality of individual studies Decision that a means of identifying the potential uses and usefulness of the scenarios is key However, issues such as transparency & evaluation remain important And, there is a link to evaluation criteria for forward-looking indicators (Table 2.1 in discussion paper)

There are 12 evaluation criteria for forward looking indicators This text represents thoughts in progress, and helped identify possible QA criteria for the scenarios Common terms / names were identified where possible for consistency

Suggested QA CriteriaPossible Identification / Icon ParentageA – Academic, I – Industry etc. Type (narrative / modeling)storyteller / graph / both Thematic focusImages representing themes Specific issue(s)Images representing issues Spatial coverage EU / Region / Country nomenclature (e.g. CZ) Temporal coverageDate / date range LanguageLanguage nomenclature Status? TransparencyProposed 2 or 3 point scale Accessibility and cost,, - and indication of access EvaluationY / N Sustainability integrationEnv / Soc / Econ Engagement (analytical / participative) Book / group May be difficult to represent visually, unless broad categories are used Transparency indicates whether method is clear and replicable – considered important but difficult to assess in practice! Thematic focus also enables assessment of whether scenario addresses key EEA / EU policy area Status is intended to indicate if scenario is updated or a one off

Criteria … to … decision tree The scenario factsheets are to be uploaded into a web-based catalogue Each criteria to be assigned icons to enable easy identification of scenario characteristics and quality Using (e.g.) drop down menus, users can quickly identify scenarios suited to their needs

Next steps Finalise factsheets Agree scenario assessment criteria Develop icons or clear identification Update factsheets to searchable catalogue This meeting is a key opportunity for expert feedback, ideas and opinion

Thank you for listening For follow up and further information Owen White Collingwood Environmental Planning (CEP) (0)