JCOMM Third Session, Marrakech, 4-11 November 2009 Andreas Schiller, Eric Dombrowsky and the GODAE OceanView Science Team Scope and Objectives of GODAE OceanView  Leading the Scientific Development and Supporting the Implementation of Ocean Forecasting Systems 

JCOMM Third Session, Marrakech, 4-11 November 2009 Acknowledgements Most of the work presented here is based on Presentations/proceeding from the GODAE Final Symposium (Nice, Nov 2008), Oceanography Magazine Special Issue on GODAE (Sep 2009), The inaugural meeting of the GODAE OceanView Science Team (Toulouse, June 2009) Oceanobs09 presentations by Pierre-Yves LeTraon and Gary Brassington

JCOMM Third Session, Marrakech, 4-11 November 2009 Oceanography Special Issue and Oceanobs’09 White Papers

JCOMM Third Session, Marrakech, 4-11 November 2009 Talk Outline GODAE Legacy New Challenges GODAE OceanView –Structure –The Science Team –GODAE OceanView Task Teams Conclusions

JCOMM Third Session, Marrakech, 4-11 November 2009 Where do we come from ? GODAE and its International Steering Team (IGST) –Combining model dynamics and observations to provide an “integrated” description of the ocean state –A strong, skilled and motivated international group of experts That have pushed international cooperation, share of knowledge, scientific results, and ocean products That have setup coordinated actions, such as the development of GODAE metrics, intercomparison exercise, … That have organized events such as summer schools, symposium, and publication –Engaged at national level in operational oceanography development, with some decision making authority Decision taken within the IGST are implemented in the national systems –Reporting every year about the progress made National reports, IGST meetings, …

JCOMM Third Session, Marrakech, 4-11 November 2009 GODAE Modelling/ Forecasting Systems

JCOMM Third Session, Marrakech, 4-11 November 2009 The GODAE Legacy GODAE has contributed to : –Further development of pre-existing operational oceanography capacities (US-Navy, UKMO, …) –The emergence of new (pre-) operational capacity (China, Australia, Japan, Canada, Europe…) –The demonstration of usefulness of some corresponding services (oil spill combat, navy acoustics, search and rescue, ocean climate understanding, …) –The design and development of a global observing system (ARGO, altimetry, …) –Demonstrate the feasibility and strength of the integrated approach (from observations to service including forecast, …)

JCOMM Third Session, Marrakech, 4-11 November 2009 GODAE Achievements and Successes Implementation of observing and data processing systems Argo and GHRSST-PP (pilot projects), altimetry, in-situ Implementation of global modelling & data assim. capabilities High resolution and climate Implementation of data/product serving capabilities Intercomparison / validation, metric and standardisation Demonstration of feasibility and utility Mesoscale nowcasting and forecasting, ocean climate research, marine pollution and safety, weather forecasting, marine resources, etc. Scientific advances Modelling, data assimilation, scientific validation

JCOMM Third Session, Marrakech, 4-11 November 2009 Operational Oceanography Applications

JCOMM Third Session, Marrakech, 4-11 November 2009 Feasibility of Now-/Forecasting of Ocean Mesoscale Hurlburt et al, 2008, AGU Monograph 177

JCOMM Third Session, Marrakech, 4-11 November 2009 The Needed Transition From GODAE assets, we identified the need for a push forward: –The consolidation of the observing system infrastructure –The transition from the demonstration of usefull products to the development of operational services –Bridging more the technology capabilities (push) with the users needs (pull): accuracy Has been presented to, and endorsed by, the GODAE community during the Nice GODAE final symposium in November 2008 –GODAE OceanView paper, round table, …

JCOMM Third Session, Marrakech, 4-11 November 2009 The New Challenges (1/3) Face emerging new societal needs Understand/monitor/forecast the earth system from days to decades –Improve atmospheric forecast where the ocean impacts it (cyclones, monsoons, …) –Application of ocean prediction techniques to improve climate and decadal prediction including the ocean contribution Where (most) people live –Improve near-shore/coastal waters real-time prediction (coupling to and/or downscaling from the offshore/deep ocean; physics, biogeochmistry) –Understand the impact of climate change in coastal regions (downscaling) For the sustained exploitation of the seas –Develop ecosystem-based management of marine living resources  Support environmental policies through environmental monitoring

JCOMM Third Session, Marrakech, 4-11 November 2009 The New Challenges (2/3) Improve and extend our capacities Research and development in ocean modeling, data assimilation Coupling with other components of the earth system Cooperation with international research programs (e.g. WCRP, IGBP, SCOR)  Improve accuracy of the ocean products

JCOMM Third Session, Marrakech, 4-11 November 2009 The New Challenges (3/3) Better observe the ocean Help the international organizations in charge of the development of the ocean observing systems: –For the transition to sustained operations of the global in situ and space observing system better use of existing systems, such as ARGO, Jason, … –For the design/assessment of new observing systems new observable (e.g. bio, …), new focus (e.g. coastal, …) –For the optimization of the resources measure the relative impact, assess the utility, etc… through OSE/OSSE  Evaluate benefit and optimize use of the OOS

JCOMM Third Session, Marrakech, 4-11 November 2009 To be Achieved by GODAE OceanView Improve accuracy and utility of ocean analysis and forecasting products Promote the development of downstream use of ocean data and information products from GODAE systems Support the transition to operational services  Links with JCOMM/ET-OOFS (lead) Demonstrate the value of the observing systems Coordinate the development of new capabilities and links to other communities (international relationships)  job of task teams

JCOMM Third Session, Marrakech, 4-11 November 2009 Science Team Terms of Reference LEAD and MANAGE the execution of the GODAE OceanView program PROMOTE the development of improved capabilities in ocean analysis and forecasting DEVELOP collaborations and improved communications between the participants in GODAE OceanView EVALUATE scientific and technical developments to optimize the use of knowledge and technology in GODAE OceanView implementation REPORT on national activities related to GODAE OceanView. Maintain an up-to-date description of national capabilities related to ocean analysis and forecasting (national reports) LIAISE with other international programs of interest to, and interested in, GODAE OceanView

JCOMM Third Session, Marrakech, 4-11 November 2009 ET-OOFS Terms of Reference DEVELOP and MAINTAIN 'The Guide to Operational Oceanographic Forecasting systems of the World“ PROVIDE ADVICE to JCOMM teams and member states on the application, nomenclature, symbology and standards used by operational ocean forecasting systems DEVELOP and OPERATE an inter-comparison framework for near real- time monitoring of OOFS outputs building on the legacy of GODAE WORK EFFECTIVELY with the Scientific community developing and maintaining OOFS PROVIDE OBSERVATION REQUIREMENTS for OOFS to the JCOMM Observations Program Area PROVIDE ADVICE to the JCOMM Data Management Program Areas PROVIDE ADVICE to Members/Member States on operational Ocean Forecast systems

JCOMM Third Session, Marrakech, 4-11 November 2009 GODAE OceanView Structure Science Team Intercomparison And validation Task Team Observing systems evaluation Task Team Coastal ocean and shelf seas Task Team Marine ecosystem Analysis and prediction Task Team JCOMM ET-OOFS Patron’s group

JCOMM Third Session, Marrakech, 4-11 November 2009 GODAE OceanView: 4-Year Work Plan* Objective –Develop and implement a 4-year Program with measurable progress towards the GODAE OceanView objectives by 2013 (work-in-progress). Scope –Assess all key activities of GODAE OceanView (incl. TTs), including but not limited to scientific progress and excellence: accuracy, publications, … outreach, media capacity building and technology transfer: new countries, … others… –GOVST to be reviewed in 2013 by, e.g., JCOMM, patrons, users (navies), industry,… * alignment with JCOMM Sessions

JCOMM Third Session, Marrakech, 4-11 November 2009 GODAE OceanView Task Teams TASK TEAMS address specific topics of particular importance to GODAE OceanView that require collaboration with international research programs or other groups (e.g. coastal community).

JCOMM Third Session, Marrakech, 4-11 November 2009 TT: Intercomparison and Validation Objective: Assess the performance, quality and consistency of ocean forecasting and analysis systems. Various intercomparison efforts of GODAE products to quantitatively evaluate methodologies to judge strengths and weaknesses of the forecasting systems: e.g. MERSEA, basin-scale intercomparisons etc. European MERSEA Project in collaboration with other international GODAE projects has built a common methodology for real-time inter- comparison of forecast systems. Metrics are defined and aim at testing the consistency, quality and performance of each system (Class 1 to 4). Requires collaboration between modellers and interactions with user community to agree upon the definition of metrics which will be systematically used for assessing the quality and consistency of system outputs and the sharing of experience through critical analysis of inter-comparison exercises.

JCOMM Third Session, Marrakech, 4-11 November 2009 Assessment of EKE in NAT TOPAZ FOAM HYCOM C-NOOFS SURCOUF Mercator

JCOMM Third Session, Marrakech, 4-11 November 2009 TT: Observing System Evaluation Objective: Assess the impact of observations on forecasts and analyses and improving the design of the global ocean observing system. GODAE OceanView systems are powerful means to assess the impact of the global observing system, to identify gaps and to improve the efficiency/effectiveness of the observing system. OSEs or OSSEs are useful tools which have been applied to high-resolution ocean forecasting, seasonal-to-interannual prediction, and climate analysis and reanalysis OSEs are flexible tools as they can be used to examine the impact of observations on a particular application (e.g. surface current forecasts for marine safety applications) or to give insight into the effectiveness of the data assimilation systems that are being used

JCOMM Third Session, Marrakech, 4-11 November 2009 NO ALTIM NO Argo NO SST NO DATAALL DATA Complimentary Data Types Oke, P. R., and A. Schiller (2007) No SSTNo ALTIM 1/10 o Bluelink system 6-month long OSEs starting December 2005

JCOMM Third Session, Marrakech, 4-11 November 2009 Objective: Assess and demonstrate the value of GODAE OceanView results for regional, coastal and shelf seas analysis and forecasting systems (includes coupling open ocean/coastal zone; seamless transition from the open sea down to the coastal zone). Mission of the Coastal and Shelf Seas Working Group (CSSWG, ): demonstrate the value of GODAE results for regional, coastal and shelf seas models and forecasting systems: - examined 40 coastal ocean systems nested in larger-scale systems in many coastal regions of the world ocean. - encouraging results, in particular regarding the suitability of the existing large-scale estimates, scientific quality, demonstrations of utility…  A White Paper is available on Coastal ocean forecasting science moves beyond the initial objectives of demonstration of feasibility and utility, to a next-level broader initiative aimed at consolidating its foundation: - ICODAE: an initiative for science and training towards sustainable multidisciplinary downscaling and forecasting activities in the world coastal oceans TT: Coastal Ocean and Shelf Seas

JCOMM Third Session, Marrakech, 4-11 November /12° Northeast Atlantic NEMO configuration (target: 1/36° in MyOcean GMES project) Downscaled from MERCATOR GODAE product Modisno tide July 2004 tidal mixing fronts: impact on SST (Chanut, MERCATOR) with tides Cherbourg SST Added Value: Tides

JCOMM Third Session, Marrakech, 4-11 November 2009 TT: Marine Ecosystem Analysis and Prediction Established in June Objectives of the MEAP-TT: (i)to foster research on ecosystem modeling and assimilation strategies that are compatible with constraints of operational systems; (ii) to further assess and demonstrate the value of operational products for marine ecosystem monitoring and prediction; (iii) to expand the concept of the “GODAE metrics” to biogeo- chemical variables and to develop intercomparison exercises across international groups; (iv) to identify the essential sets of physical and biogeochemical observations required to constrain the coupled models and formulate relevant recommendations on these issues; (v) to promote and organize educational activities (summer schools, training workshops, etc.) aimed at sharing experience between young scientists, operational oceanographers and marine ecosystem experts. Links with IMBER, GEOTRACES and SOLAS.

JCOMM Third Session, Marrakech, 4-11 November 2009 AlgaRisk08 project integrates EO with operational model (POLCOMS-ERSEM)  Predictive tool used by Environment Agency to assess prediction of nuisance bloom events on beaches  Daily analysis & 5 day forecast.  Parameters provided:  physical: SST, salinity, stratification, currents, PAR, wind, cloud cover.  biogeochemical: phytoplankton biomass, flagellates, dinoflagellates, picoplankton, nutrient ratios. Boundary conditions from FOAM

JCOMM Third Session, Marrakech, 4-11 November 2009 New/Pilot Task Teams Pilot Task Team on High-Res. Coupled Prediction  CAS/WGNE –Coordinate and extend capacity within the meteorological and oceanographic community for coupled high resolution prediction systems –Exploit high resolution coupled prediction systems to evaluate the impact on atmospheric, wave and ocean prediction, assess the gains relative to less computationally intensive alternatives. Pilot Task Team on Forecasting Systems and Models: work-in-progress

JCOMM Third Session, Marrakech, 4-11 November 2009 Conclusions  Major progress over the past 10 years to develop operational oceanography capabilities and to link with applications and services  Integrated approach, international cooperation, sharing of data, knowledge and experience were key elements to the success of GODAE  Operational oceanography systems require and will require continuous improvements (observations, models, data assimilation) to better serve applications  GODAE OceanView continues the science vision of GODAE and supports the transition of mature elements of ocean forecasting to an operational environment (ET-OOFS)  New requirements, new drivers and new opportunities (e.g. environmental policies, climate change, weather forecasting) lead to evolution of modelling and data assimilation systems (e.g. coastal and shelves, ecosystems, ocean/wave/atmosphere coupling) and new requirements for observing systems

JCOMM Third Session, Marrakech, 4-11 November 2009

Summary: GOVST, Task Teams and Links to Other Programs GODAE OceanViewJCOMM, ET-OOFS, CLIVAR-GSOP, GOOS, CEOS, GCOS Intercomparison and ValidationET-OOFS, CLIVAR-GSOP Observing System EvaluationGOOS-OOPC, CLIVAR-GSOP, Argo, OSTST, GHRSST,ET-OOFS Coastal Ocean and Shelf SeasGOOS-PICO Marine Ecosystem Monitoring and Prediction IMBER, SOLAS, GEOTRACES High-res. coupled Prediction (PP-TT) CAS-WGNE, CLIVAR, WGOMD(?) Forecasting Systems and Models (PP-TT) CAS-WGNE, CLIVAR, WGOMD(?)

JCOMM Third Session, Marrakech, 4-11 November 2009 GODAE OceanView: Existing International Relationships Scientific Groups, Internat. Programs and National Agencies: Argo GHRSST OSTST CLIVAR-GSOP IMBER GEOTRACES SOLAS HYCOM GOOS, GCOS, OOPC IOC/JCOMM CEOS NASA NOAA ESA EUMETSAT MyOcean ECMWF