Comunicação | Autor – 00/00/ Local LUCF Inventories and Projections: PORTUGAL Improving the Quality of Community GHG Inventories and Projections for the LUCF Sector Workshop under Working Groups I and II of the EU Climate Change Committee Ispra, September 22-23, 2005 Vitor Gois – Teresa Costa-Pereira

Improving the Quality of EU GHG Inventories&Projections for the LUCF sector| Ispra – 19/09/2005 National Forest Inventory >Available Years of surveys 1st NFI st revision nd revision rd revision –90: first assessment –95: aerial coverage, field work 97-98, results rd revision –Data collection starting in 2005

Improving the Quality of EU GHG Inventories&Projections for the LUCF sector| Ispra – 19/09/2005 National Forest Inventory >Definitions >Forest (as TBFRA) forest trees (potential height >5 m) >0.5 ha, >10% cover, >20 m width >Methodology aerial photos => interpretation => areas uncertainties estimated for areas (5% ) forest types: 7 species, other species grouped in 2 (broadleaved, coniferous) stratified sampling: ground surveys (nº of plots proportional to forest types distribution)

Improving the Quality of EU GHG Inventories&Projections for the LUCF sector| Ispra – 19/09/2005 National Forest Inventory >Plots now permanent (previously temporary) marked on the photos (geo-referenced) dimensions vary with species total plots: 2211 >Plot(stand) level: – Altitude – Slope – Origin of stand – Regime – Vegetation (shrubs)

Improving the Quality of EU GHG Inventories&Projections for the LUCF sector| Ispra – 19/09/2005 National Forest Inventory >Tree level: – all trees: dbh (dbh>7.5 cm) – sampling trees: dbh, age, dbase (30 cm), ht, hc, bark thickness (coniferous only) – dominant trees: age, dbh, ht (=>hdom) – small trees - nº (circles) – Stem Volume –function of dbh and ht –coefficients estimated for most forest types – Q. suber and Q. rotundifolia - different measurements: –not for wood production –cork production and vitality of stands –dbh, hc, crown diameter –UNFCCC reporting requires volume: estimates based on literature

Improving the Quality of EU GHG Inventories&Projections for the LUCF sector| Ispra – 19/09/2005 SNIERPA >National System: Legal Framework: –Resolução do Conselho de Ministros n. 68/2005 >LULUCF Inventory Institute for the Environment >Focal Point DGRF: General Directorate Forest Resources IGP: Geographic Institute >Entities FPFP: Federation of Forest Producers –Soil Survey Studies CELPA: Paper producers Association –Land Use Mapping –Expert Data

Improving the Quality of EU GHG Inventories&Projections for the LUCF sector| Ispra – 19/09/2005 Future Plans >LUC Estimate CLC 2002 Source: IGP

Improving the Quality of EU GHG Inventories&Projections for the LUCF sector| Ispra – 19/09/2005 Future Plans >Implementation of GPG IPCC 2003 Forest, Cropland, Grassland, Wetlands, Settlements, other Land Use changes: FF; LF; FL >Quantification of New Pools Belowground Biomass Dead wood+litter Soil Carbon >Improve new CRF tables

Improving the Quality of EU GHG Inventories&Projections for the LUCF sector| Ispra – 19/09/2005 Future Plans >Review Parameters Expansion Factors Growth Rates Belowground Biomass

Improving the Quality of EU GHG Inventories&Projections for the LUCF sector| Ispra – 19/09/2005 Future Plans >Forest Fires Above biomass losses in Fires Forest: 45.6 t/ha Bush: 11.0 t/ha

Improving the Quality of EU GHG Inventories&Projections for the LUCF sector| Ispra – 19/09/2005 Future Plans >Uncertainty Analysis Next submission –Tier 1 & tier 2 Activity Data: Reported in NFI Parameters

Improving the Quality of EU GHG Inventories&Projections for the LUCF sector| Ispra – 19/09/2005 » PROJECTIONS National Plan for Climate Change LUCF projections procedure Basic assumptions for projections Policies and measures considered Projections for 2010

Improving the Quality of EU GHG Inventories&Projections for the LUCF sector| Ispra – 19/09/2005 » National Plan for Climate Change Work started in 2000, in close colaboration with economic agents, envolving different sectors of the Public Administration, having been submitted to 2 public consultation aproved by a Council Resolution in July 2004 includes projections for 2010 update/revision of projections until 2020 under development results expected for the end of the year

Improving the Quality of EU GHG Inventories&Projections for the LUCF sector| Ispra – 19/09/2005 » LUCF projections procedure Scenarios considered Scenarios based on country demographic and macro-economic scenarios and sectoral scenarios until 2010 Sectoral scenarios based on: forest production paper and pulp industry wood and furniture industry cork industry Low and High (higher economic growth) reference scenarios for With Measures and With Additional Measures projections Methodology Same approach as for LUCF inventories only above-ground biomass considered exception: projections consider bushland; inventories not (non-managed land)

Improving the Quality of EU GHG Inventories&Projections for the LUCF sector| Ispra – 19/09/2005 » Basic assumptions for projections Reference scenarios Forest Area Expansion: annual average for new forest area Low: 0.7% (annual average for the 1980 –2000 period) High: 1% (annual average for , based on EU funds and subsidies) NEW FOREST AREA: [ ha] Deforestation annual net rate: 0.3% of forest area Harvest volume harvested [11500 – (1000 m3)] Forest Fires same probability of occurence during the period

Improving the Quality of EU GHG Inventories&Projections for the LUCF sector| Ispra – 19/09/2005 » Policies and measures considered National Policies and Measures for the Forestry Sector

Improving the Quality of EU GHG Inventories&Projections for the LUCF sector| Ispra – 19/09/2005 » Projections for 2010