1P. Criqui, LEPII-EPE Post 2012 Climate Policy Brussels November 22, 2004 Post-2012 climate policy : the participation challenge from the « Greenhouse gas Reduction Pathways in the UN-FCCC process up to 2025 » study GRP, LEPII-EPE coord. for DG-ENV

2P. Criqui, LEPII-EPE Post 2012 Climate Policy Brussels November 22, World Reduction Pathways 2.International Climate Architectures 3.The Participation Challenge 4.Consistent Strategies

3P. Criqui, LEPII-EPE Post 2012 Climate Policy Brussels November 22, World Reduction Pathways 2.International Climate Architectures 3.The Participation Challenge 4.Consistent Strategies

4P. Criqui, LEPII-EPE Post 2012 Climate Policy Brussels November 22, 2004 GRP: the need for further action World greenhouse gas emissions, if unconstrained, will lead to high levels of atmospheric concentrations Over the second half of the next century, the Reference Projection results in emissions of the 6 Kyoto basket gases (i.e. CO 2, CH 4, N 2 O, HFC, PFC and SF 6 ) that are equivalent to Gt of CO2 (GtCO2e) each year This represents a doubling, from world current 6 GHGs emissions, i.e. 37 GtCO2e/yr in 2000 These emission levels would induce concentration levels of more than 900 ppmv CO2e in 2100

5P. Criqui, LEPII-EPE Post 2012 Climate Policy Brussels November 22, 2004 GRP: goals and corresponding scenarios The EU goal of limiting average temperature increase to less than plus 2°C, compared to pre-industrial level can be translated into concentration and emission profiles … In GRP reduction profiles have thus been defined, for the set of 6 Kyoto gases: -S550e for a stabilisation at 550 ppmv CO2 eq. (450 ppmv CO2 only); it will meet the less than plus 2°C from pre-industrial target for a low to median value of the Climate Sensitivity Factor -S650e for a stabilisation at 650 ppmv CO2 eq. (550 ppmv CO2 only); it will meet the target only if the Climate Sensitivity is low

6P. Criqui, LEPII-EPE Post 2012 Climate Policy Brussels November 22, 2004 GRP: the S550e and S650e global profiles Emissions have to peak before 2020 in S550e and before 2030 in S650e 2050 emissions should correspond to 1990 emissions minus 15% in S550e or to 1990 emissions plus 15 % in S650e IMAGE 2.2

7P. Criqui, LEPII-EPE Post 2012 Climate Policy Brussels November 22, World Reduction Pathways 2.International Climate Architectures 3.The Participation Challenge 4.Consistent Strategies

8P. Criqui, LEPII-EPE Post 2012 Climate Policy Brussels November 22, 2004 GRP: the possible architectures An international architecture without emission targets (e.g. commitment on R&D spending) is conceivable, but would probably miss any of the identified profiles Emission reduction targets can be defined either: -through a global emission profile (top-down) -or individual targets for the different parties (bottom-up) The form and timing for participation can be identical for all Parties or with differing targets or time-horizons The type of commitment can be defined in absolute or dynamic terms (intensity targets) Different equity principles can be used: egalitarian, acquired rights, responsibility, capability

9P. Criqui, LEPII-EPE Post 2012 Climate Policy Brussels November 22, 2004 GRP: profiles and architectures While many options for the design of a climate architecture can be explored … the commitments for the different regions basically depend on: -the choice of the long term emission profile -decisions made on the type of participation for non-Annex I countries This is why the diversity in options can be subsumed though the use of a limited number of generic models

10P. Criqui, LEPII-EPE Post 2012 Climate Policy Brussels November 22, 2004 GRP: the Multi-Stage schemes Multi-Stage is an increasing participation scheme, with Parties progressively entering into different stages: -in Stage 1 Parties have no binding quantitative commitment (case for the Least Developed Countries) -in Stage 2 they have to comply to dynamic intensity targets (case for the Emerging Economies) -in Stage 3 they comply to absolute emission targets, as resulting from the global profile (Annex 1 countries) In GRP, three Multi-Stage schemes have been defined, using a Capacity-Responsibility index (cf. Art of UN-FCCC)

11P. Criqui, LEPII-EPE Post 2012 Climate Policy Brussels November 22, endowments: some hard accounting facts From the GRP profiles and MS endowment schemes, one can retain the following useful orders of magnitude on outcomes and requirements :

12P. Criqui, LEPII-EPE Post 2012 Climate Policy Brussels November 22, 2004 GRP: Conclusions on profiles and endowments The GRP study is only a first step, but shows that: -meeting the EU climate objective will require a peak in world emissions within a few decades -the taking into account of a global profile is probably a condition for attaining this target -the possible architectures are many, but simple schemes can be designed, with reasonable properties in terms of international equity For the Annex I countries the S650e profile would imply a reduction in endowments by a factor of 2 in 2050 (relative to 1990); S550e would require a Factor 4 reduction

13P. Criqui, LEPII-EPE Post 2012 Climate Policy Brussels November 22, World Reduction Pathways 2.International Climate Architectures 3.The Participation Challenge 4.Consistent Strategies

14P. Criqui, LEPII-EPE Post 2012 Climate Policy Brussels November 22, 2004 S550e S750e S650e Adaptation costs + residual damages Mitigation costs GRP: Motivations for participation For any Party to an international climate agreement, the first motivation for participation should be the safeguard of climate as a Global Public Good … In order to avoid the adverse consequences of uncontrolled climate change, in particular for the most vulnerable parts of the world

15P. Criqui, LEPII-EPE Post 2012 Climate Policy Brussels November 22, 2004 GRP: Costs and potential gains from global cap and international trading systems The ratio of direct (sectoral) abatement costs to GDP provides a good indication of the rate of effort for each region In most Annex I regions and in 2025, this rate of effort represents 0.5 to 1% of GDP in S550e and 0.1 to 0.2% of GDP in S650e Due to their endowments, low-income regions receive a net benefit from emission trading … while intermediate income or high per capita emission developing regions incur net costs

16P. Criqui, LEPII-EPE Post 2012 Climate Policy Brussels November 22, 2004 GRP S650e effort rates up to 2025: sectoral cost / GDP Source: POLES model

17P. Criqui, LEPII-EPE Post 2012 Climate Policy Brussels November 22, 2004 GRP S550e effort rates up to 2025: sectoral cost / GDP Source: POLES model

18P. Criqui, LEPII-EPE Post 2012 Climate Policy Brussels November 22, 2004 GRP: Co-benefits of climate policies, the case of NOx Climate policies induce significant changes from baseline for sulphur and nitrogen oxydes emissions The positive impacts are particularly noticeable for the low-income but rapidly growing regions in Asia Source: IMAGE-TIMER model

19P. Criqui, LEPII-EPE Post 2012 Climate Policy Brussels November 22, World Reduction Pathways 2.International Climate Architectures 3.The Participation Challenge 4.Consistent Strategies

20P. Criqui, LEPII-EPE Post 2012 Climate Policy Brussels November 22, 2004 Elements of a consistent strategy - 1 Further action is needed, global targets and emission trading systems will be keystones for collective action The EU climate target will imply strong emission reduction targets (Factor 2 to 4 reductions for 2050 in Annex I countries) The costs of these policies should neither be exaggerated nor minimized, as they will imply important changes in societies and major technological innovations

21P. Criqui, LEPII-EPE Post 2012 Climate Policy Brussels November 22, 2004 Elements of a consistent strategy - 2 Mastering the low- or no-carbon energy technologies will be the key to sustainability and economic competitiveness in the XXIst century, but it will have costs in the short term The EU has to set ambitious goals, but cannot do it alone. This implies to: -Demonstrate its capability to implement effective domestic climate policies -Identify international actions in the short term that aim at- and are consistent with- a future global regime

22P. Criqui, LEPII-EPE Post 2012 Climate Policy Brussels November 22, 2004 Elements of a consistent strategy - 3 To ease the participation challenge, a solution to be explored might be the one of proportionate targets : -The EU sets an ultimate climate policy goal, with a range of targets for its own commitment -The EUs binding target is then defined inside this range, proportionally to the commitments of the other key Parties This may make international responsibilities clearer and to some extent deter free-riding …