Global Population Issues

How should Canada respond to global population issues? Can Governments control population growth? Should they? For decades, governments in the developing world have worked hard to reduce the population growth rate of their countries. They know that a population growing too quickly interferes with economic and social progress. The most famous, most successful, of these efforts has been China’s population growth rate to 0.44 percent, which is even lower than Canada’s.

A poster promoting China’s successful but very controversial one-child policy. The slogan on the poster reads, “One couple only produces one child.”

Now China faces a different set of problems – a rapidly aging population, growing labour shortages, and families with no aunts, uncles, or cousins. A growing number of other counties are also facing very low birth rates and, in some cases, declining populations. China’s population, for example, will start to decline before 2030 even though the one- child policy has been dramatically weakened in recent years.

Demographic Change – Problems for Your Future or Opportunities? Singapore is a vibrant, small country in southeast Asia. In 2014, it had a total fertility rate (TFR) of only 0.80. This means that they average number of children per woman is less than one child. As a result, the country’s financial resources have been dramatically switched from providing schools to providing facilities for elderly people.

Closer to home… Singapore is an extreme example of birth dearth, which is a rapid decline in the number of children being born. (A dearth is a shortage or lack of something.) This is happening in developed Western countries, like Canada, and in developing countries, like China and Vietnam. This demographic trend’s impact can be seen in Canada as less children is beginning to equal less need for schools and a greater need for elderly care.

Population Projections Many people believe that the world is already overpopulated, and most forecasts suggest there will be two billion more people on Earth by 2050. What has caused this serious problem? What might help to solve (or at least reduce) it? A demographic transition model will help to answer these questions! A model is something created to help us understand a complex process. This model traces a country’s path from a high birth rate and high death rate demographic pattern to a low birth rate and low death rate pattern.

The Demographic Transition Model The concept of demographic transition is fairly simple if you consider the meaning of the two words. Demographic refers to population, while a transition is a gradual change. So we are talking about gradual population change. Demographers have created a model of the process that describes the four stages that a country’s population goes through.

Demographic transition has happened because of major trends in the history of society: The development of and improvements in agriculture The move form rural life to urban life Growth in the understanding of disease prevention and cures Changes in the role of women in society Changes to attitudes about family size

Stage 1: Pre-Transition What? The birth and death rates are high, but similar. An average woman has 6-10 children in her life, or even more. Most children do not reach adulthood. The population grows little, if at all. When did it start? In developed countries like Canada, Stage 1 existed from the beginning of human history until sometime in the 19th century. In developing countries, it continued well into the 20th century. There is no country in the world still in this stage today.

Stage 1 continued What was happening in society? The vast majority of the population supported themselves by hunting and gathering food, and later by simple subsistence farming. Having many children was an advantage because they cold work and at least a couple would survive to adulthood. Life was harsh and uncertain. People faced challenges such as: An epidemic called the Black Death in the 14th C killed between 100-200 million people in Europe/Asia Many people, especially children, died because of disease, poor nutrition, and contaminated drinking water.

Stage 2: Early Transition What? The birth rate remains high, but the death rate drops dramatically. The result is a population explosion. Consider a country with a birth rate of 45 per 1000 and a death rate of 15 per 1000. Its natural increase rate of 3 percent means a doubling time of just 23 years. Only a few poor countries, mainly in dry areas of northern Africa, are still in Stage 2. Good examples are Chad and Niger. When did it start? In the most developed parts of the world, Stage 2 started as early as the late 1700s. The decline in the death rate was later, but much quicker, in developing parts of the world. In the poorest parts of the world, Stage 2 did not begin until the 1960s.

Stage 2 continued What was happening in society? Most people were still farmers, but technological advances meant that more farmers were involved in commercial food production. Better food storage methods were developed, which improved good security. Simple sanitation improvements meant fewer diseases. For example: people learned not to take drinking water downstream from where they went to the toilet. More productive agriculture meant fewer farmers were needed. People migrated to urban centres to find work. People continued to have large families, but more children reached adulthood and had their own families.

Stage 3: Late Transition What? The death rate drops to below 10 per 1000, which the birth rate drops quickly. Traditional attitudes favouring large families gradually change especially in cities. This is partly because raising children has become more costly. The natural increase rate drops as the death rate approaches the already low birth rate. Most of the developing world is now in the late-transition phase. When did it start? In the most developed parts of the world, Stage 3 started in the late 19th C. Western Europe is the best example. Birth rates have dropped more quickly, but much later, in less developed countries.

Stage 3 continued What was happening in society? The move to the cities accelerated throughout the world until most people lived in cities. Agricultural productivity increases continued, based on the use of more machinery and less human power.

Stage 4: Post Transition What? The death rate and birth rate stabilize at about the same level – slightly below 10 per 1000. Another way to look at this is by comparing the total fertility rate to the replacement rate. In theory, the TFR and RR should be the same in Stage 4, at about 2.1. The result would be a stable population. However, what has happened in many countries, including Canada, is that the TRF has dropped well below the RR. In 2013, Canada’s TFR was only 1.11. No one knows whether birth rates in developed countries will increase to near the RR or whether the long-term outlook for countries in Stage 4 is a declining population – what has been called a population implosion.

Stage 4 continued When did it start? Post-transition is quite recent, with countries like Canada, Japan, and Germany reaching this stage in the last 30 years or so. What was happening in society? All of the trends mentioned previously have continued, although the move to cities has ended. In some of the most developed counties, more than 80perso of the population is urban. The role of women in society has changed as many women work outside the home in full-time careers.