Northwest Power and Conservation Council Regional Conservation Update: News From the Front January 24, 2007 Tom Eckman Northwest Power and Conservation Council

Northwest Power and Conservation Council slide 2 What You’re About To Hear A Short History A Short History –What We’ve Accomplished in the past 25 years Some Current Events Some Current Events –How We’re Doing on the 5 th Plan’s Targets The Road Ahead The Road Ahead –Are We In for Another “Mister Toad’s Wild Ride?”

Northwest Power and Conservation Council slide 3 PNW Energy Efficiency Achievements 1978 – 2005 Since 1978 Utility & BPA Programs, Energy Codes & Federal Efficiency Standards Have Produced Over 3000 aMW of Savings.

Northwest Power and Conservation Council slide 4 Energy Efficiency Resources Significantly Reduced Projected PNW Electricity Sales

Northwest Power and Conservation Council slide 5 Energy Efficiency Met Nearly 40% of PNW Regional Firm Sales Growth Between

Northwest Power and Conservation Council slide 6 Utility Acquired Energy Efficiency Has Been A BARGAIN!

Northwest Power and Conservation Council slide 7 Regional Utility Conservation Acquisitions Have Also Helped Balance Loads & Resources Response to West Coast Energy Crisis Response to NW Recession Response to “Restructuring Discussions” Creating Mr. Toad’s Wild Ride for the PNW’s Energy Efficiency Industry Short Term Memory Loss?

Northwest Power and Conservation Council slide 8 So What’s 3100 aMW? It’s enough electricity to serve the entire state of Idaho and all of Western Montana It’s enough electricity to serve the entire state of Idaho and all of Western Montana It’s enough electricity to meet nearly 60% of Oregon total electricity use It’s enough electricity to meet nearly 60% of Oregon total electricity use It saved the region’s consumers more than $1.25 billion in 2004 It saved the region’s consumers more than $1.25 billion in 2004 It lowered 2004 PNW carbon emissions by an estimated 13 million tons. It lowered 2004 PNW carbon emissions by an estimated 13 million tons.

Northwest Power and Conservation Council slide 9 IS THAT AS GOOD AS IT GETS IS THAT AS GOOD AS IT GETS? With All We’ve Accomplish You Might Ask Yourself You Might Ask Yourself

5 th Plan Relies on Conservation and Renewable Resources to Meet Load Growth * * Actual future conditions (gas prices, CO2 control, conservation accomplishments) will change resource development schedule and amounts

Northwest Power and Conservation Council slide 11 Accelerating Conservation Development Reduces Cost & Risk

Northwest Power and Conservation Council slide 12 Accelerating Conservation Reduces Carbon Dioxide Emissions

Northwest Power and Conservation Council slide 13 Meeting 5 th Plan’s Conservation Targets Reduces Forecast PNW Power System CO2 Emissions in 2025 by Nearly 20%

Northwest Power and Conservation Council slide 14 Are We Achieving the 5 th Plans Near-Term Conservation Targets? ( ) = 700 aMW

Northwest Power and Conservation Council slide 15 Not All Returns Have Been Counted 62 Utilities 88% of Regional Load Council’s Regional Technical Forum Is Surveying Utility Progress on Conservation

Northwest Power and Conservation Council slide 16 Early Returns Show We’re Close on the Savings 2005 Target 2006 Target

Northwest Power and Conservation Council slide 17 Conservation Appears to Be Lower Cost... At Least To Utilities 5 th Plan Estimate of Utility Cost of Conservation for “share” of Target: $180 to $225 million May Hit savings targets with lower than expected cost May Hit savings targets with lower than expected cost No data yet on levelized cost to compare to wholesale power costs No data yet on levelized cost to compare to wholesale power costs Equivalent to 1.75% of Regional Retail Revenues

Northwest Power and Conservation Council slide 18 Utility Cost of Conservation Continue to Decrease 2005 Cost Range

Northwest Power and Conservation Council slide 19 Are Individual Utilities “Making Their Targets?”

Northwest Power and Conservation Council slide 20 Caveats on Utility “Targets” “Targets” are based share of regional load, hence assume all utilities look like the “region” – NOT SO! “Targets” are based share of regional load, hence assume all utilities look like the “region” – NOT SO! Conservation potential varies due to customer mix, gas/electric market share, load growth,etc. Conservation potential varies due to customer mix, gas/electric market share, load growth,etc. Utility IRPs will differ from Council Plan Lumpy-factor: Annual program volume varies Still, many utilities want to know their “share” of the regional conservation targets

Northwest Power and Conservation Council slide Findings by Utility 16 Largest Utilities or 85% of Regional Loads Four utilities far exceed targets Four utilities far exceed targets –15 to 35% above “share” of regional target Eight utilities fell short Eight utilities fell short –Seven achieved less than half of their “share” of regional target Four utilities within 10% of target Four utilities within 10% of target

Northwest Power and Conservation Council slide Results 16 Largest Utilities – 85% of Regional Loads

Northwest Power and Conservation Council slide Preliminary Results 16 Largest Utilities – 85% of Regional Loads

Northwest Power and Conservation Council slide 24 Average Preliminary Results 16 Largest Utilities – 85% of Regional Loads

Northwest Power and Conservation Council slide 25 Bonneville Achieved It’s Targets

Northwest Power and Conservation Council slide 26 However, BPA Has Exhausted Its “Surplus” FY07 Achievements Must Be Nearly 50% Above FY06

Northwest Power and Conservation Council slide 27 With Bonneville’s “Carry Over” The Region Exceeds the 5 th Plan Targets 2005 Target2006 Target

Northwest Power and Conservation Council slide 28 The Road Ahead – Is this the Renaissance?

Northwest Power and Conservation Council slide 29 The Road Ahead – A Brighter Lower Wattage Over 7 million CFLs sold in 2005 Over 7 million CFLs sold in 2005 –PNW has 16% of all US installs BPA has several new regional initiatives underway BPA has several new regional initiatives underway State & Federal standards for 17 appliances State & Federal standards for 17 appliances –Help hit targets beginning 2008 Commercial & Industrial program participation is up Commercial & Industrial program participation is up

Northwest Power and Conservation Council slide 30 The Road Ahead – Utilities Appear to Be “Ramping Up” PSE is developing a “green utility” strategy PSE is developing a “green utility” strategy Avista has increased its annual efficiency goal by 20% -- and management has asked staff to “squeeze out more efficiency” company wide Avista has increased its annual efficiency goal by 20% -- and management has asked staff to “squeeze out more efficiency” company wide Idaho Power expects to nearly double its efficiency expenditures next year Idaho Power expects to nearly double its efficiency expenditures next year PGE has initiated discussions that could lead to an increase in Energy Trust funding PGE has initiated discussions that could lead to an increase in Energy Trust funding

Northwest Power and Conservation Council slide 31 I-937 Passed

Northwest Power and Conservation Council slide 32 Now It Must Be Implemented

Northwest Power and Conservation Council slide 33 I-937 Failed In Most Counties Served by Public Utilities Who Do Not Appear to Be Achieving the 5 th Plan’s Targets I-937 Failed in the Counties Served by these Utilities

Northwest Power and Conservation Council slide 34 After A Quarter Century ImmoralIllegalUnprofitable The Region May Finally Achieve the Power Act’s Vision of Making the Inefficient Use of Electricity...

Northwest Power and Conservation Council slide 35 Thank you very much. Thank you verry, verry much.