1 The Positive Role of Natural Rubber in Global Climate Change Presented by Yium Tavarolit Chief Secretary and Economist International Rubber Consortium Limited (IRCo)

2 Figure 1. Melting Glaciers Photos taken in 1913 (top) and 2005 (above) show the decline in Shepard Glacier in Montana's Glacier National Park. Changes in ice cover and snowmelt will affect water supplies in several regions around the world.

3 What is global climate change? Answer: Global climate change is a change in the long–term weather patterns that characterize the regions of the world

4 What is global warming? Answer: Global warming is the average temperature of the Earths near–surface air and oceans since the mid–twentieth century, and its projected continuation (Wikipedia)

5 Figure 2. Global Temperatures

6 What causes global climate change and warming? The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) concluded that most of the observed increase in globally averaged temperatures since the mid–twentieth century is very likely due to the observed increase in anthropogenic (man–made) greenhouse gas concentrations via the greenhouse effect. Natural phenomena such as solar variation combined with volcanoes probably had a small warming effect from pre–industrial times to 1950 and a small cooling effect from 1950 onward. The three main causes of the increase in greenhouse gases observed over the past 250 years have been fossil fuels, land use, and agriculture.

7 Greenhouse gases include:- Carbon dioxide (CO 2 ), Chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs), Methane (CH 4 ), Nitrous oxide (N 2 O), Tropospheric ozone (O 3 ), Water vapor

8 In chemistry, each molecule of greenhouse gas becomes energized by the long wave radiation. The energized molecules of gas then emit heat energy towards Earth that increase Earths temperature. Annual greenhouse gas emissions by sectors are shown in the pie chart below: - (See Pie Chart)

9 Figure 3. Annual Greenhouse Gas Emissions by Sector

10 Land use in agriculture contributes to greenhouse gas increases through land use in four main ways:- 1) CO 2 release linked to deforestation 2) Methane releases from rice cultivation 3) Methane releases from enteric fermentation in cattle 4) Nitrous oxide releases from fertilizer application Source: Climate Change and Agriculture: wikipedia

11 Figure 4. Atmospheric Carbon Dioxide

12 Shortage in grain production: Between 1996 and 2003, global grain production stabilized over 1,800 million tons, but grain stocks dropped and resulted in a shortage of 93 million tons in Poverty: The increase frequency and severity of adverse weather events is likely to have a negative impact on the developing world Whether global climate change will harm agriculture?

13 Crop development models: Despite models for climate behavior are frequently inconclusive, many models have been developed and run simulations based on various set of meteorological variables to estimate climate changes effects on crop development and yield. Temperature potential effect on growing period: An increase in temperature will speed up development and will shorten growing period. The shortening of such cycle could have as adverse effect on productivity because senescence would occur sooner.

14 Potential effect of atmospheric carbon dioxide on yield: Rising CO 2 concentration in the atmosphere can have both positive and negative consequences. Effect on quality: The importance of climate change impacts on grain and forage quality. It will reduce nutritional value and animal productivity. Agricultural surfaces and climate changes: The amount of arable land near the poles will increase due to reduction of the amount of frozen lands. Sea levels are expected to get up to one meter higher by 2100, though this projection is disputed

15 Erosion and fertility: The increase in precipitations (rain, snow, etc) would probably result in greater risks of erosion but providing soil with better hydration. At the same time, soil fertility would probably be higher because of an increase in carbon in soil, thus providing better yields. Potential effects of global climate change on pests, diseases and weeds: There will be an increase in rainfall in some areas, which would lead to an increase of atmospheric humidity and the duration of the wet seasons. Combined with higher temperatures, these could favor the development of fungal diseases, insects, and disease carriers.

16 Glacier retreat and disappearance: Will affect the ability to irrigate crops and will reduce summer stream flows necessary to keep dams and reservoirs replenished. The Himalayan glaciers, the principal dry–season water sources of Asias biggest rivers including Ganges, Indus, Bramaputra, Yangtze, Mekong, Salween and Yellow, could disappear by 2035 as temperatures rise. Approximately 2.4 billion people live in the drainage basin on the Himalayan Rivers, India, China, Pakistan, Afghanistan, Bangladesh, Nepal, and Mynmar could experience floods followed by severe droughts in coming decades.

17 Ozone and UV-B: Any decrease in stratospheric ozone could increase biological dangerous ultraviolet radiation B, which can directly effect plant physiology and cause massive amounts of mutations, and indirectly through changed pollinator behavior, though such changes are difficult to quantify. However, it has not been ascertained whether an increase in greenhouse gases would decrease stratospheric ozone levels.

18 How to solve these problem? 4.1 Key technologies to reduce emission:- Increase efficiency of energy supply; fuel switching, renewable (hydropower, solar, wind, geothermal, and bio-energy); combined heat and power; nuclear power; early applications of CO2 capture and storage More fuel efficiency vehicles for transportation; hybrid vehicles; bio-fuel; modal shifts from road transport to rail and public transport systems; cycling, walking; land-use planning Increase more efficient lighting for building; efficient appliances and air-condition; improved insulation; solar heating and cooling; alternatives for fluorinated gases in insulation and appliances

Key policies to reduce emission:- Appropriate incentives for development of technologies Effective carbon price signal to create incentives to invest in low – GHS products, technologies and processes Appropriate energy infrastructure investment decisions, which have long term effects on emissions Changes in lifestyle and behavior patterns, especially in building, transport and industrial sectors Source: Dr R K Pachauri, Chairman of IPCC, The IPCC Fourth Assessment Working Group Reports: Key findings, 24 September 2007, New York City

20 What is the role of natural rubber in global climate change? Efficient system and management of natural rubber plantation could lower carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) and nitrous oxide (N 2 O) in the atmosphere that will stop global warming. There should be a joint surveillance committee of the ITRC to work closely with national agencies concerned of the three countries to monitor and give recommendations to rubber smallholders how to reduce GHGs. At the same time, the committee should consider how to charge industrialized countries for carbon credits. The surveillance committee should monitor the situation closely whether farmers cut trees and burn forests to plant natural rubber and reports to their respective governments to stop deforestation.

21 Conclusion The writer is of the opinion that it is a responsibility of everybody and governments to reduce greenhouse gases (GHGs) by introducing the above mentioned key technologies and other measures to the daily lifestyle Every government should work closely with the Intergovernmental Panel for Climate Change (IPCC), as the core center of solving global climate change, to reduce GHGs