Three-State Air Quality Study (3SAQS) Three-State Data Warehouse (3SDW) 3SAQS Phase II 2015 – Revised Schedule and Remaining Work University of North Carolina (UNC-IE) ENVIRON International Corporation (ENVIRON) February 25, 2015

2 Content Revised 3SAQS Phase II 2015 Schedule – Completion date extended from July to September 2015 Task 2a: Source Apportionment (SA) Modeling Plan – Define Geographic SA, SA Plan in March Task 5: 2014 Data Analysis and Modeling Plan – Preliminary approach Task 9: Winter Ozone Modeling – WRF Meteorological Modeling Progress Proposed Changes from 2011a to 2011b Base Case Tasks 10&11: Preliminary 2014 O&G and Revised 2020 O&G Emissions Update

3 3SAQS Phase II: Tasks 1 and 2 3SAQS Phase II Revised Schedule (2/25/15) – Revise project end date from July to September 2015 Task NameOriginalRevisedComment CMAQ ModelingOct-NovOct-MarFire inventories took some time CMAQ 2011a 4kmNov 2014Feb 2015CAMx BC sens modeling issues in MZ BCs CMAQ 2011a2 4km--Mar 2015Use BCs based on CAMx run with GC BCs MPE and ReportNov 2014Mar 2015Updating using CMAQ 2011a2 MPE CAMx/CMAQ FeaturesNov 2014Mar 2015Wiki contrasting features in CMAQ and CAMx 2 Source ApportionmentOct-AprFeb-JulDelays in getting the 3SAQS 2011a2 Databases Draft SA DesignNov 2014Mar 2015Preliminary outline in Feb 2015 Final SA Design--Mar 2015After 3SAQS TechCom review Geographic SAJan 2015Apr /12 km Follow WJ, Add Regional Haze metric Emissions Sector SAFeb 2015May /12 km, CY or FY? Detailed 4 km SAMar 2015Jun 2015Basins and source categories CMAQ 4 km SAApr 2015Jul 2015Test CMAQ SA and compare with CAMx SA Web ToolApr 2015May 2015CSU to implement prototype ahead of time

4 3SAQS Phase II: Tasks 3 and 4 3SAQS Phase II Revised Schedule (2/25/15) – Revise project end date from July to September 2015 TaskNameOriginalRevisedComment 3Sensitivity TestsOct-MarOct-JulDelays in 2011a database development GEOS-Chem (GC) BC SensNov 2014Feb 2015Better PM2.5 MPE, adopt GC BCs for 2011a O&G EmissionsFeb 2015Jun 2015Top Down (2011a2/b?) Vertical TransportFeb 2015Mar 2015Alternative Kvs? MOVES2014Feb 2015Apr 2015Delays in EPA release of SMOKE-MOVES2014 data Base 2011bMar 2015Jun 2015CMAQ too? 2020_2011b Update? 4Visibility/Deposition AnalysisDec-MarFeb-MayDelayed by 2011a Base Case; wait for 2011a2? IMPROVE RCFM VisibilityMar 2015 For 2011a, revise for 2011a2 when ready W & D - S & N DepositionMar 2015Apr 2015NADP Wet Dep done, add CASTNET Dry Dep Direct visibility measurements Mar 2015May 2015Lots of work to mimic what instrument sees

5 3SAQS Phase II: Tasks 5, 6, 7 and 8 3SAQS Phase II Revised Schedule (2/25/15) – Revise project end date from July to September 2015 TaskNameOriginalRevisedComment Modeling PlanJan-FebFeb-Mar Preliminary 2014 PGM Modeling before 2014 NEI Draft 2014 PlanJan 2015Mar 2015Summary at 2/25/2015 meeting WRF ModelingMar-MayMay-JulBased on Task 5 Plan 2014 WRF ProtocolMar 2015May WRF ModelingApr 2015Jun WRF ReportMay 2015Jul Preliminary EmissionsMar-JulJun-AugBased on Task 5 Plan Preliminary AQ ModelingMay-JulJul-SepBased on Task 5 Plan

6 3SAQS Phase II: Tasks 9, 10, and 11 3SAQS Phase II Revised Schedule (2/25/15) – Revise project end date from July to September 2015 TaskNameOriginalRevisedComment Winter ModelingOct-FebJan-May WRF Winter PlanOct 2014Jan 2015Document posted 1/9/2015 review WRF Winter Report DraftJan 2015Apr 2015 WRF Winter Report Draft#2Feb 2015May O&G Surveys and Preliminary 2014 O&G Emissions Oct-JunJan-Sep Revising SOW to reflect latest developments New O&G surveys for 2014 activity FebAprSurveys tailored to Basins Preliminary 2014 O&G for Three-State Basins MayMay-Jul Projection 2011 O&G using IHS (no surveys) 11Project ManagementOct-JulOct-SepContinuous

7 Exit to Presentations Task 2a: Source Apportionment (SA) Modeling Plan – Define Geographic SA, SA Plan in March Task 5: 2014 Data Analysis and Modeling Plan – Preliminary approach Task 9: Winter Ozone Modeling – WRF Meteorological Modeling Progress

8 2011a to 2011b Base Case Update Summary of Base2011a Inputs – CAMx V6.1 36/12/4 km -- CB6r2 chemistry – 36 CONUS BCs MOZART GCM – WRF /12/4 km Meteorology – 2011 NEI Version 1 (NEIv1) emissions Large EGUs updated with day-specific hourly CEM WRAP enhanced MEGAN for biogenic sources LNOx, WBD and Sea Salt PMDETAIL fire emissions for WF, Rx and Ag Preliminary 3SAQS O&G emissions for Basins in CO, UT and WY – CAMx 2011a 36/12/4 km MPE Draft Report 11/10/2014

9 2011a to 2011b Base Case Update 2011 Boundary Conditions (BCs) CAMx 2011 GEOS-Chem (GC) BC Sensitivity Run – Markedly improved performance in crustal PM species – Some smaller degradation in MPE for other species – GC BCs adopted for Base2011a2 base case and used in additional sensitivity tests 2011 Winter Meteorology WRF meteorology results on all three 3SAQS modeling domains with improvements for snow cover, albedo, and boundary layer dynamics during the winter months (Jan-Mar, Nov-Dec)

a to 2011b Base Case Update 2011 O&G Emissions in Three-State Region EPA’s MNSR tribal data for Uinta and Ouray tribes in Uinta Basin – Engines, heaters, tanks, pumps, loading Add fracing engine emissions to 2011 O&G – Not part of WRAP Phase II surveys so not in 2011a – Add fracing engines based on BLM, EIS docs – D-J, Piceance, Uinta, NSJ and SSJ

a to 2011b Base Case Update Oil and Gas Emissions in Montana/Dakotas New O&G emissions developed for the Great Plains/Williston Basins WRAP methodology for 2011 and 2015 years. – The WRAP 2011 O&G emissions will be used in place of 2011 NEIv1 for the 3SAQS 2011b SAQS On-road Mobile Process the NEI2011v2 MOVES2014 data through SMOKE using the 3SAQS meteorology and ancillary data – Compare these results with the SMOKE/MOVES2010b results used for 3SAQS 2011 Base A and with the EPA SMOKE/MOVES2014 results distributed with the 2011 NEIv2

a to 2011b Base Case Update 2011 NEIv2 Updates to 2011 NEIv1 CEM Point Sources – Added missing or incorrect ORIS and boiler ID fields – Add fields to the non-EGU inventory to match sources with the hourly CEM data Results in the addition of several sources to the CEM sector – Replac annual NOx and SO2 inventory for CEM sources with the sum of the hourly CEM values Non-CEM Point Sources – Updates to the non-CEM point inventory resulted in the move of several sources into the CEM processing sector – Included 2011 ethanol production facilities that were missing in the 2011v1 inventory

a to 2011b Base Case Update 2011 NEIv2 Updates to 2011 NEIv1 Fugitive Dust – Backed out the meteorology/precipitation adjustments from the paved and unpaved dust inventory Nonpoint/Area – Split the inventory into fugitive dust, agricultural sources, nonpoint-Oil & Gas, residential wood combustion sources, commercial marine, and class 1/class 2 rail – Aggregated daily agricultural fire inventory to monthly values Class 1 & 2 Commercial Marine – Replaced the Midwest RPO (MWRPO) states inventory with the 2010 MWRPO inventory

a to 2011b Base Case Update 2011 NEIv2 Updates to 2011 NEIv1 Class 3 Commercial Marine – Replaced projection 2011 point sources with 2011NEI-based data – Replaced MWRPO states inventory with the 2010 MWRPO inventory Non-Road Mobile – Replaced annual inventory with monthly inventories – Small VOC adjustments to sources in CA – Use 2011 TX inventory apportioned to months NEI2011 TX Non-Road On-Road Mobile – Year 2011 based on emissions factors from MOVESTier3FRM – For CA and TX, merge 2011 state data w/ EPA MOVES results

a to 2011b Base Case Update 2011 Fire Emissions 2011a used fire emissions from the PMDETAIL JFSP study. PMDETAIL is updating their 2011 fire emissions estimates that will be used for 3SAQS Base2011b as follows: Update fire emission factors (EFs) using the latest EFs survey data: – Results in significant increase in fire VOC emissions – Still use biomass burned from CONSUME – Supports VBS SOA module

16 3SAQS Pilot Study – 2011b O&G Major updates being conducted now – Tribal MNSR data mining for the Uinta Basin – Data from oil and gas well site registrations by operators to EPA Region 8 – Data mining for emission calculation inputs – i.e. emission factors, device counts, control fractions – Basin-level inventory developed for the tribal areas of the Uinta Basin – Fracing engines being added to all basins in study area 16

3SAQS Phase II – 2014 O&G Surveys New surveys to be distributed to gather primary operations data from companies Different approaches for different basins Uinta Basin – Coordinate with UTDAQ on ongoing state EI development work San Juan Basin – Coordinate with BLM, NMED, SUIT, CDPHE on existing efforts to inventory North & South San Juan 17

18 3SAQS Phase II – 2014 O&G Surveys D-J Basin – Originally planned to use RPSEA study, now unlikely to get data from this related project Piceance Basin – Will develop new survey instrument targeting area sources (not captured by APENs) Paradox and Raton Basins – Will use representative survey data from other basins (no new surveys) Wyoming: WYDEQ will supply inventories 18

19 3SAQS Phase II – Preliminary 2014 O&G Preliminary 2014 O&G using available data – Data from States, Tribes and EPA – 2014 IHS data – Project 2011b O&G to 2014 for missing sources – Needed before 2014 Surveys are available Use in preliminary 2014 photochemical grid modeling 19

Modeling Platform Draft 2014 modeling plan 2014 WRF Modeling – WRF modeling protocol – Combine winter configuration from 2011b with non-winter configuration from 2011a – WRF 2014 MPE report

Modeling Platform Pre-2014 NEI Emissions – Inventory development plan for review by cooperators – MOVES - use 2014 meteorology data developed under Task 6 and fleet information collected from Colorado, Utah, and Wyoming to run MOVES in emission factor mode for SMOKE-MOVES2014 processor will be used to generate on-road mobile source emission inputs. – EGUs and large point sources - collect year 2014 Continuous Emission Monitor (CEM) data from CAMD for large point sources – Biogenic – run MEGAN with 2014 meteorology

Modeling Platform Pre-2014 NEI Emissions – Agricultural ammonia – collect 2014 CAFO locations, animal population data, and county emissions factors from the states and run the Carnegie Mellon University NH3 model – Methane – augment methane inventory with available data – Dust – Review available approaches and select one for generating windblown dust emissions. – Fires – Use best available source at time of modeling

Modeling Platform Air Quality Modeling – 2014 Air quality modeling protocol – CAMx and CMAQ run simultaneously on 36/12km modeling domains – Air quality trends report comparing 2008, 2011, and 2014 ozone, PM, visibility, and deposition trends in the three-state region Post 2014 modeling platform to the Data Warehouse