European Geopolitical Forum-EGF Research on: “OLD POWERS RE-EMERGING IN THE WIDER BLACK SEA: SECURITY AND REGION-BUILDING STRATEGIES IN EUROPE’S EASTERN NEIGHBORHOOD” Dr. Marat Terterov, Director and co-Founder, EGF & Mr. George Vlad Niculescu, Head of Research, EGF, Director of Programs, Centre for East European and Asian Studies, Bucharest CONFERENCE “EU & THE EMERGING POWERS” EUROPEAN PARLIAMENT, BRUSSELS, APRIL 2013 PANEL 12: EU-RUSSIA RELATIONS, SESSION TWO 30 APRIL,

 CURRENT OUTLOOK AND THE CHANGING DYNAMICS OF THE WBS SECURITY  The rise of the region's "old powers”, Russia and Turkey, while “external actors”, US and the EU, mainly monitor the situation;  Regionalism hampered by regional diversity and lack of strategic leadership;  The spectrum of renewed East-West geopolitical competition in Eurasia;  Powerpolitik apparently winning the order of the day

Key Questions Underlying the Research: 1. WBS- a closed Nineteenth Century type of regional space dominated by two "old powers re- emerging”? Or will it move into the Twenty First Century? What Role for the EU? 2. Could the EU, Turkey and Russia share rather than compete for power in the WBS? How would such an EU-Turkey-Russia power sharing likely impact on the evolving challenges in Eurasia?

Overview of Western Involvement in the WBS  EU’s regional policy after 2007: “The Black Sea Synergy-BSS initiative”;  Key aims: “Europeanization” and security of energy supply;  Today- the BSS just an afterthought;  US & NATO – recognition of importance, but no coordinated regional policy;  NATO self-restrained to “bilateral” soft security cooperation.

Russia and the Prospects of Eurasian Economic Integration  An increasingly assertive political and economic force in the WBS;  Strategic aims: control of energy supply of Europe, overriding regional influence, and national security;  Moscow becoming increasingly bellicose towards the West;  The Eurasian Economic Union (EEU) and the myth of “re-Sovietizing” Eurasia;  A Common Economic Space -CES from Lisbon to Vladivostok?  Needs a fundamental review of foreign and security policy.

Turkey: A Rising Regional Power  A new multifaceted foreign policy;  A rising regional power, but not there yet;  Rapprochement with Russia in the 2000s,  …but mutual trust with Moscow might be dwindling in the future;  Disagreements with the Western powers since , but …  …strategic relations with the US and Europe still fundamental for regional leadership;  Might have a stake in opening up regional cooperation to neighboring economic integration processes;  Needs a balanced relationship with, and among, Russia, Europe and America.

Could the EU, Turkey and Russia Share Power in the WBS? 1. Bridging the Ideological Gap Between Russia and the West.  Towards renewed East-West “ideological” war? OR  Finding pragmatic ways to harmonize European and Russian values and governance models.  A comparative study of the Russian, and European (EU) models of governance. Turkish experience might be an inspiring case study.

Could the EU, Turkey and Russia Share Power in the WBS? 2. Trilateral Approaches to the Resolution of Protracted Conflicts might:  ensure a better regional strategic coordination;  strengthen the regional ownership of the peace processes;  counter the fears of Russian-imposed solutions;  allay Russian concerns with American "expansionism”;  maintain an indirect American influence. BUT not an easy ride because of:  Russian failure to adapt to multilateral approaches;  Turkish unsettled issues with some local actors, i.e. Armenia;  EU's institutional constraints regarding involvement in conflict management and resolution in its neighborhoods;  EU’s inability to carry out a wider range of military tasks.

Could the EU, Turkey and Russia Share Power in the WBS? 3. WBS Regional Economic Cooperation: A Way Around the Integration Dilemma of the Post-Soviet States?  Need for harmonizing the European and the Eurasian normative systems to...  …establish a CES from Lisbon to Vladivostok enabling free movement of goods, services, capitals and people.  Turkey and the regional post-Soviet states might have a stake in revitalizing regional economic cooperation.

Conclusions and Recommendations  The “rise” of Turkey and Russia in the WBS- increasingly a consequence of :  shifting strategic interests of the US;  EU's turn towards itself, and focus on the Arab uprisings.  To fill in for the shift of the US pivot to Asia, the EU needs to become a regional player in the WBS willing and capable to engage on an equal footing with Turkey and Russia.  Strategic requirements for EU’s future involvement in the WBS might include:  being realistic about Russia and looking forwards, not backwards;  nurturing a stronger relationship with Turkey in sustaining initiatives in the Eastern Neighborhood;  tackling the evolving challenges in Eurasia in strategic coordination with Turkey and Russia;  playing a leading role in searching viable solutions to the protracted conflicts;  revitalizing its involvement in strengthening regionalism in the WBS.