Demographic Transition Model
One of the most basic human urges is to sort things into categories, look for patterns and apply labels. "Oh, blessed rage to order," the poet Wallace Stevens called it. As discussed in the grouping countries assignment (1 st world to 5 th world) this is to make sense of the world while at the same time explaining the patterns that we see around us and using these to make predictions about the future.
Family size in Canada has decreased significantly in recent generations and this phenomenon has been repeated in over 60 nations worldwide where the total fertility rate has fallen below the replacement rate of 2.1. The changes in population growth (births and deaths) follows a predictable pattern and results from economic, social, and scientific developments. These changes in birth and death rates have been generalized and is called the Demographic Transition Model.
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Very high birth and death rate. Old age in this society would be 45 – 50. Food supply erratic, epidemics of disease kill many. Because so many children die, couples have large families (7+ children). Despite the high birth rate population grows only very slowly and sometimes declines.
Introduction of “Death Control”. Disease due to organisms and controlled through personal hygiene, vaccination, clean water, sanitation. Drop in the death rate = increase in population as birth rate unchanged (families cannot risk having fewer children). In developed societies death control happened slowly and population growth was rapid but manageable (North America offered new opportunities for extra population). In developing nations death control introduced more rapidly and the population explosion has been more dramatic.
As more children survived to adulthood (leading to increasing population pressure) “Birth Control” became common. This is the conscious choice to have fewer children (not the pill etc…). Industrialization and the growth of cities was important since children were a burden and could not earn money, and women had access to jobs and greater independence. Industrialization and urbanization is moving only slowly in some nations and these countries are caught in stage 3 meaning their population continues to grow.
Countries with post-industrial economies have seen a decline in birth rates to the point that they are similar to the death rate. These nations are experiencing little growth and are considered to have stable populations. Life in these nations is city based, with small families, and increasing numbers of older people as the life expectancy increases.
In developed nations where the total fertility rate has dropped below 2.1 (Canada 1.6, Andorra & Bosnia-Herzegovina 1.2). Some demographers believe this is temporary and that family sizes will rebound to close to replacement rate. Others believe that we are seeing a new stage in which population shrinks.
Demographic Transition in Mexico and Sweden
Cornucopians Humans have the ability to find technical solutions to our problems. Industrial revolution and agricultural revolution allowed us in to support many more people. Alternative energy sources may be the key to the next phase. DJ Bogue Theory of demographic regulation. Society naturally limits its population and grows only in response to Earth’s ability to support more population. Decline in European population, China’s “One Child Policy”, India’s “Two is enough” are examples of social choices to regulate population.
Thomas Malthus Saw significant population increases in the late 1700 as a sign of impending catastrophe. Food increases arithmetically (2, 4, 6, 8…) Population increases exponentially (2, 4, 8, 16…) Remedies are war, famine, starvation William Catton The Earth has a finite population carrying capacity. Debate as to what level of population this is. Catton says we have exceeded the earth’s carrying capacity and that we are currently in overshoot (using up resources at unsustainable levels). Must curb our resource use or face catastrophe.